Reform UK Rises in Latest YouGov Poll, Achieving Record-High Vote Share

Reform UK leader Richard Tice speaks during a party press conference in London on March 20, 2023. Carl Court/Getty Images

Reform UK has solidified its position as the third most popular party in the UK in the latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll released on Thursday, reaching a record-high vote share of 13 percent.

This marks the second consecutive week where Reform UK has attained its highest recorded vote share.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives and Labour maintained their previous positions, polling at 20 percent and 47 percent respectively.

Reform UK’s party leader, Richard Tice, told The Epoch Times, “We push ever harder, let’s see what happens but 14 percent is not far away … one percent at a time.”

Tories Have Taken Voter Base ‘For Granted’

Former Tory MP Andrew Bridgen, who now sits in the Commons as an independent after clashing with the Tories over policy direction on the COVID-19 response last year, told The Epoch Times that the Tories have taken their “natural voter base for granted.”

He added: “There is nothing conservative about the policies of the current Conservative government and nothing on the horizon either. Except small boats full of economic migrants, illegal economic migrants.”

In a development that could further unsettle the already precarious position of the prime minister, Will Dry, his former special adviser on polling and opinion research, levelled a warning on Thursday about the electoral influence of Nigel Farage and his potential impact should he return to the Reform Party.

Mr. Dry, a vocal critic of Brexit who departed from his role in Number 10 before the Christmas period, has now aligned himself with the Conservative Britain Alliance, a group that has recently been instrumental in producing a YouGov MRP poll indicating a potential landslide defeat for the Conservatives, reminiscent of the 1997 general election.

Former Sunak Adviser Predicts Tory Defeat

Mr. Dry told The Sun on Thursday: “Everyone in this country can see just how colossal the challenges we face are. Sadly, it became clear to me we weren’t providing the bold, decisive action required to overcome those challenges. You cannot dent them without internalising just how fundamentally broken our political system is.

“I further concluded, again sorrowfully, that the Conservatives are heading for the most almighty of defeats. Be in no doubt: we are on course for at least a decade of Labour rule. And if Farage comes back, the Conservative Party essentially won’t exist by Christmas.”

Mr. Farage took to X, formerly known as Twitter, to react, saying: “The Tory party seem to be utterly terrified of me. They have no one to blame but themselves.”

The Conservative Party has been facing internal disputes following comments published on Tuesday by The Telegraph from former Cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke, who warned that the party faces a “massacre” at the general election unless there is a change in leadership.

Party Divided Over Leadership

Despite Sir Simon’s warning, several key figures within the party, including Home Secretary James Cleverly, defended Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and discouraged infighting. Mr. Cleverly stated, “If we were to do something as foolish as have an internal argument at this stage, all it would do is open the door for [Labour leader Sir] Keir Starmer.”

The Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), led by key allies of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, also echoed the sentiment of disillusionment with Mr. Sunak’s leadership.

Chairman of the CDO, David Campbell Bannerman, told The Epoch Times last week that “while Commons votes carry the threat of removing the whip for MPs, a letter of no confidence doesn’t.”

The former MEP added: “The polls can hardly be much worse [for the Tories] so any downside of removing another prime minister, especially one elected by neither members nor any MPs, is minimal. We need to steer clear of the cliff edge.”

Mr. Tice told The Epoch Times that he saw the infighting as “rats kicking off in the sack before the sack sinks in quicksand,” despite senior Tories rallying around Mr. Sunak.

Only Half of 2019 Tory Voters Stay Loyal

Polling data from Redfield & Wilton Strategies earlier this month revealed that while 86 percent of individuals who voted for Labour in the last general election plan on voting for the party again, just 54 percent of 2019 Conservative voters plan to stick with the Tories.

Notably, 15 percent of former Conservative voters now indicate a preference for Labour, while an additional 15 percent are leaning towards supporting Reform UK if an election were to take place tomorrow.

In the latest polling from YouGov, the Liberal Democrats remain steady at 8 percent, and the Greens have seen a slight decrease to 6 percent.