Reform UK Overtakes Conservatives in Major Poll

A man takes a selfie with the leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage (L) on Gold Beach in Arromanches, Normandy, France, on June 6, 2024. Aaron Chown/PA

Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives for the first time in a major opinion poll.

A YouGov survey released on Thursday has Nigel Farage’s party at 19 percent to the Conservatives’ 18 percent in voting intention.

“With Reform UK having seen a slow but steady upward trend in their vote over the last few months, there had been whispers that the day might come when a poll shows the party overtaking the unpopular Conservatives,” said YouGov.

It added that while numerically ahead, “it is worth keeping sight of the fact that these figures are well within the margin of error of one another,” and “we will not be able to tell for some time whether Reform can sustain or improve their position relative to the Conservatives.”

‘Seismic Shift’

It added that is it “fair to say at this point in time - given the results of the last few polls - that Reform UK are neck and neck with the Conservatives.”

This represents “a seismic shift in the voting landscape,” it said.

Mr. Farage hailed the poll, claiming his party is now the “opposition to Labour.”

Pollster Matt Goodwin told The Epoch Times by email that he believes Reform “could certainly hope to win one to three seats.”

In a Substack blog piece, he said that he had predicted Mr. Farage and Reform would inch ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party in the national polls.

In a video uploaded to his YouTube channel, he explained that people are not just “voting irrationally,” rather he believes that this is an “inflection point.”

“If you look at all the evidence as to why people are voting for Marine Le Pen, for the AfD in Germany, for Nigel Farage in Britain, they have entirely rational, coherent concerns; the left refuses to accept this,” he said.

He said that such voters want “lower immigration, slower demographic cultural change, and stronger borders.”

“They don’t want the woke stuff being jammed down their throats. They don’t want to be told that a woman is a man and a man is a woman. They just want common sense policies. Now, the left can keep saying this is just protests, these people are irrational gammons and bigots, and they’re misinformed and they’re disinformed, but the reality is they have entirely legitimate understandable grievances about what’s going on in the West today,” he added.

Labour Ahead

The YouGov poll said that Labour is at 37 percent, down one point from the previous poll, while the Liberal Democrats, which saw a four point boost in its previous poll, have also declined by a single point, to 14 percent. The Greens are likewise down one point to 7 percent.

It was conducted on a sample of 2,211 adults in Britain between June 12 and 13.

Reacting to the news, Mr. Sunak claimed that voting for Reform would be “handing Labour a blank cheque.”

Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said “Labour is taking Reform on.”

“We’re going to beat them in the battle of ideas and we’re going to demonstrate what real change looks like in our country, if we earn the trust of people in this general election.”

Reform

Last month Reform announced Mr. Farage would become its leader and would also run as an MP in Clacton, providing a fresh electoral threat to the Tories.

The former leader of the Brexit Party had originally ruled out standing in the general election, saying that it was “not the right time.”

He has now “changed his mind” and will run in the Tory-held seat in Essex.

PA Media contributed to this report.