RCMP Concerned About ‘Popular Resentment’ Fuelled by Falling Living Standards

A RCMP patch is seen on the shoulder of an assistant commissioner, in Surrey, B.C., on April 28, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Darryl Dyck)

In a forecasting report meant to prepare the police force for the future, the RCMP notes that a deterioration of living conditions in Canada could lead to increased “popular resentment.”

“The coming period of recession will accelerate the decline in living standards that the younger generations have already witnessed compared to earlier generations,” says the report, titled “Whole-of-Government Five-Year Trends for Canada.”

The heavily redacted report, which was written based on open-source information dated June to October 2022, examines potential shifts in the domestic and international environments over the next five years that could “have a significant effect on the Canadian government and the RCMP.”

The report, released via an access to information request and posted on the CBC News website, is aimed at preparing the RCMP for “new and unexpected crises.”

While there has been an economic slowdown in the country, a full-blown recession has yet to materialize. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was slightly negative for two of the quarters covered by the RCMP report—the fourth quarter of 2022 (-0.2 percent) and the third quarter of 2023 (-0.1 percent). Otherwise there has been muted growth in quarters, between 0.2 and 0.6 percent.

But Canadians are experiencing falling living standards as measured by GDP per capita and in comparison to their neighbours to the south. GDP per capita in Canada has been stagnating for the past decade and was at US$53,250 in 2023, compared to US$83,060 in the United States. The two countries were in a virtual tie a decade ago.

Offering an example of declining standards of living, the report says that “many Canadians under 35 are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live.” It adds that the fallout from falling living conditions is made worse by the widening gap between rich and poor in developed countries.

Access to housing has been a central theme in the political battle between Liberals and Conservatives over the last 18 months. Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre has blamed the Liberal government for the rapid price increase in houses, mortgages, and rents, often giving the example of grown adults having to live in their parents’ basement.

“I used to say there were 35-year-olds living in their parents’ basements and people were shocked to hear that. Now, it’s much worse,” Mr. Poilievre said last summer. “The 35-year-old worries that him and his mother might be on the street living in their cars.”

The Conservatives have not spoken about the possibility that the housing issue could lead to resentment, though they have denounced increased criminality. The Liberals have often accused the Tories of using falling living standards to stoke anger and score political points.

“Fear, division, anger, is not going to solve any of the very real problems we are facing,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in Winnipeg in late February.

‘Paranoid Populism’

The RCMP report was written several months after the prime minister faced cross-country protests against COVID-19 restrictions in the winter of 2022. Mr. Trudeau had accused the protesters of being a “small fringe minority” with “unacceptable views.” He eventually invoked the Emergencies Act to disperse the protests.

The non-redacted portions of the RCMP report do not address the Freedom Convoy protests directly, but it has an almost entirely redacted section on “Erosion of Trust.” It says the “past seven years have seen marked social and political polarization in the Western world [redacted].”

Another section of the report says the COVID-19 pandemic has caused “damage to the economy and the social fabric of the nation” that is “ongoing.” It adds there’s an “established opposition to existing and potential public health measures and other restrictions.”

The RCMP report also has a tab called “Paranoid Populism,” which seeks to link conspiracy theories to the rise of political movements.

“Capitalizing on the rise of political polarization and conspiracy theories have been populists willing to tailor their messages to appeal to extremist movements,” it says. “Authoritarian movements have been on the rise in many liberal-democratic nations,” it adds, with the rest of the section being redacted.

The report also cites natural disasters attributed to climate change as a threat.

“In the near future, there will be extreme weather crises that will likely happen in close succession or even concurrently,” it says.

“Law enforcement should anticipate that these destructive weather patterns will affect all facets of government, including damage to critical infrastructure, increasing pressure to cede arctic territory, and more.”

Canada experienced its worst wildfire season last summer, and federal ministers blamed the phenomenon on climate change. Meanwhile, several individuals have been charged across the country with arson for starting multiples wildfires, and police investigations are ongoing. According the National Forestry Database, from 1990 to 2020, 52 percent of wildfires in Canada were caused by humans and 48 percent were caused by lightning.