JOHANNESBURG—South Africa votes on May 29 in an election that analysts expect to trigger an era of chaotic coalition politics that will severely limit the ability of the African National Congress (ANC) to set policy going forward and will decrease stability to Africa’s most developed economy.
The ANC has enjoyed almost untrammeled power since its rise to government under Nelson Mandela in 1994 following decades of white minority rule.
Its overwhelming majority in parliament allowed it to push through policies such as Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) that critics say enriched a black elite but failed to lift millions out of unemployment and poverty.
The ANC’s “cadre deployment” strategy freed it to appoint party loyalists to run state-owned enterprises, resulting in multibillion-dollar corruption and mismanagement that eroded road, port, and rail infrastructure.
Service delivery is also in disarray, with South Africa regularly suffering lengthy, economically debilitating electricity and water outages.
These and other crises mean that the ANC’s unpopularity is at an all-time high, with most pre-election surveys putting its current support between 39 and 46 percent.
“If the ANC dips into the low 40s, it’ll be faced with a stark choice: Surrender government or partner with the EFF,” said professor Adam Habib, director of the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London.
The South African academic reflected the primary concern for many citizens and the local and foreign business community ahead of the vote: an alliance between the ANC and the radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
The EFF, which like the ANC has close ties with China’s Communist Party and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party, wants to “nationalize” private businesses, including banks and mines.
South Africa has one of the most developed financial sectors in the Southern Hemisphere and some of the globe’s largest reserves of minerals, including gold and platinum.
Its renewed status as Africa’s biggest economy is based on these pillars.
The EFF, in terms of representation in parliament, is South Africa’s third-largest political party, after the liberal centrist Democratic Alliance.
Opinion polls expect the EFF to win between 10 percent and 12 percent of the vote on election day.
The party is led by an outspoken, brash 43-year-old former ANC youth leader, Julius Malema, who’s often been accused of inciting violence against white South Africans, who he says continue to oppress and discriminate against black people.
Like his supporters, who are often violent, Mr. Malema is usually clad in a red beret and red overalls to signify the EFF’s allegiance to communism.
He promises to “free” South Africa from the people he says “truly own” the country and its wealth: local and foreign white capitalists and a few “black sell-outs,” including the ANC.
Nevertheless, Mr. Malema has indicated that he’s willing to form a coalition with the ANC—but only if the government implements his party’s extreme policies.
“Passing even one of these policies into law will cause investor flight the likes of which we last saw during apartheid in the 1980s,” Mr. Habib said.
“The economy will collapse, and the country will become a failed state.”
Angelo Fick, director of the Auwal Socio-economic Research Institute in Johannesburg, told The Epoch Times, “The EFF talks left and is proudly communist and claims to represent the interests of working people and the poor, but in reality, it is an ultra-right, fascist, racist organization, led by demagogues who live in absolute luxury.”
Mr. Fick said the EFF’s promises to help the poor, including huge increases in minimum wages and social grants and free electricity, water, education, and health care, are a “smokescreen.”
“The EFF wants to mimic its sister organization in Zimbabwe, ZANU-PF, which has taken every form of wealth in the country for self-enrichment,” he said.
“Zimbabwe is a rich country in terms of minerals, yet its people are some of the poorest in the world, because all the wealth goes into the pockets of ruling party comrades.”
Mr. Malema has said that he considers deceased Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe “one of Africa’s greatest heroes.”
Mr. Mugabe caused economic catastrophe in Zimbabwe in the early 2000s when he confiscated white-owned farms and doled them out to cronies.
Agriculture, which had been one of the country’s mainstay industries, collapsed, and hunger, hyperinflation, and mass unemployment followed.
Zimbabwe has not recovered.
Mr. Malema told The Epoch Times that he “likes” Mr. Mugabe because the Zimbabwean president “didn’t take nonsense” from white people.
“After all these years, many black Africans still believe in this myth that they are inferior to white people,” Mr. Malema said.
“The EFF does not hate whites; we just love blacks. White people are welcome in South Africa, but they must know they are here on black terms.
“Africa belongs to black people, not whites.”
Mr. Malema has often been accused of instigating violence, racism, and hate speech against white citizens, who make up just 7 percent of South Africa’s population of 62 million people.
He said white people are still the most prosperous citizens.
“After 30 years of democracy, that’s just ridiculous,” Mr. Malema said.
In what he said is a “symbol” of the “black struggle to overcome white oppression,” the EFF leader and his supporters often sing an old anti-apartheid song called “Dubula ibhunu,” or “Kill the Boer.”
“Boer” is an Afrikaans word for “farmer.”
It’s used colloquially to describe white Afrikaans people, whose Dutch, German, and French forefathers were mostly farmers.
The word is also sometimes used by black people to refer to white South Africans in general.
The EFF leader also described opponents as “cockroaches” and said that “all white people are criminals and should be treated as such” because their “colonialist” ancestors “stole land.”
In 2022, at a political rally in the province of Western Cape, Mr. Malema told supporters that they must “not be afraid to kill” and that “killing is a revolutionary act.”
At the event, EFF officials held banners that read “Honeymoon is over for White People in South Africa” and “A Revolutionary must become a Cold Killing Machine motivated by Pure Hate.”
South Africa’s Human Rights Commission later found that the slogans and Mr. Malema’s comments constituted “incitement of violence and hate speech” and ordered the EFF leader to withdraw the statements and apologize.
He refused, and state prosecutors subsequently declined to take further action against him and his party.
Mr. Malema insisted that the EFF does not intend Zimbabwe-style farm invasions and “mass evictions” of white farmers.
“If we do that, it will threaten food security,” he said.
“Our intention is to take land that is unproductive and to give it to the state.
“Many of these farms owned by whites are not producing any food. Many of these farms are so-called game farms. Then when you go there, there’s no game at all, not even small impalas.
“But you find thousands of poor blacks living in congested townships next to those game farms.
“Why shouldn’t this land be expropriated without compensation and used for public good?”
Mr. Malema said if he had his way, no citizen would have the right to own land.
“My vision is that farmers are the custodians of the land. The government must own all land, and the farmers must produce food on behalf of the state,” he said.
“Same with all these people, white and black, who own many houses in a country where millions of people live in shacks. The law must say citizens are entitled to a single property, no more.”
Mr. Malema’s mantra is, “Give the country’s riches to the poor.” But the self-declared “communist forever” never mentions that he’s very wealthy himself, owning several mansions and luxury vehicles.
He and his EFF colleagues are often spotted at exclusive nightclubs, drinking expensive champagne and whiskey.
Journalists have uncovered evidence that Mr. Malema has funded his lavish lifestyle with funds looted from a trust that is supposed to benefit poor people, allegations he denies.
Prince Mashele, of the Center for Politics and Research in Johannesburg, said the only way for the EFF to get into government is if it’s invited to be a coalition partner.
“The EFF is a personality cult, not a political party,” he told The Epoch Times.
“The entire party hangs on Julius Malema’s charisma. There’s no party beyond Julius Malema.
“Take local government elections: The EFF does not win wards. Why? The so-called ground forces, the wannabe councilors, are not trusted by communities. So communities don’t vote for those characters.
“The EFF only performs well when it comes to national elections when there’s proportional representation. Why? Because that’s when it’s possible to benefit from the image of the leader of the party.”
Mr. Malema said he has “no doubt” that “eventually” he’ll be president.
“Whether it’s now or later, it’s going to happen. I’m not going away. I have a mission and a destiny,” he said.
