The province of Quebec registered a notable drop in births in 2022, with the rate decreasing by 6 percent compared to the previous year.
The provincial government notes that for various reasons, 2021 was an exception in that there were more births compared to previous years, and that would make the drop in the birth rate more pronounced if it’s taken as a point of reference.
Compared to 2020, 2022 had a drop of 2.9 percent in birth rate, while 2020 had a drop of 3.5 percent when compared to 2019. This is while there was a drop of 0.7 percent in the rate in 2019 when compared to the year before it.
There were 4,200 fewer births in 2022 compared to 2021, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec.
Compared to 84,900 in 2021, the 80,700 births in 2022 represent a 6 percent drop in the provincial birth rate.
If calculated by financial year, as does the provincial agency in charge of issuing birth certificates, the decrease was sharper. The Directeur de l’état civil told The Epoch Times there were 4,786 fewer birth declarations in fiscal year 2022—2023 compared to the year prior.
Quebec’s birth rate has been steadily declining in recent years, despite its population steadily increasing.
In 2018, the population was 8.4 million and the birth rate was 9.98 per 1,000 population. In 2022, the population was nearly 8.7 million and the birth rate was 9.28 per 1,000. Quebec’s rate is lower than for Canada as a whole (9.48 per 1,000 in 2022), but it is higher than several other provinces.
The year 2021 was an outlier, with 2,892 more births than in 2021, and the birth rate increasing to 9.87 per 1,000.
“For now, the main reasons we have identified for the slight decrease in births in 2022 are related to the increase in 2021 for mothers born in Canada, and for the still lowered fertility of immigrants after arrivals were put on hold in 2020 and for a part of 2021,” says Caroline Guillemette from the Institut de la statistique du Québec, citing an agency demographer.
The year 2021 was “pretty fertile” for mothers born in Canada, and women rarely give birth two years in a row, says the Institute.
“With regards to immigrants, we know that they are more fertile immediately after they’re admitted or arrive on Quebec soil,” added Ms. Guillemette.
Quebec welcomed 40,565 immigrants in pre-COVID-19 year 2019, 25,235 in 2020, 50,275 in 2021, and 68,720 in 2022, according to Statistics Canada data.
On average, and in relative terms to its population, Quebec took in around 50 percent fewer immigrants than Ontario in the last five years.
The statistics institute says the closing of borders during the pandemic reduced the influx of new immigrants, and although the re-opening helped increase the number of births, they’ve remained relatively low compared to what is normally expected.
A separate demographer had a different reaction to the drop of 4,200 births in 2022. “A drop of 4,200 births in a year cannot cannot be considered a small decrease,” Benoît Laplante told Les Coops de l’Information in an article published in May.
Mr. Laplante, who teaches at the Institut national de la recherche scientifique, spoke of the general trend of falling birth rates, which he attributes to concerns about the future.
“The long-term outlook started to become more important in the decision to become parents with the 2008 financial crisis. It seems the evaluation of the situation is more negative than positive,” he said.
Birth data published by the institute for the first four months of 2023 suggest the year will be marked by another significant drop. There were 1,450 less births in the first quarter compared to 2022.
Excess Mortality
At the same time the province registered a noteworthy drop in births, it also documented elevated excess mortality among young people.Data published by the institute shows an average of excess mortality of over 19 percent amongst the 0-49 years-old in 2022. The average for the first six months of 2023 has risen to over 25 percent.
“Other socio-economic factors can also explain fertility, but we do not have the means to identify any kind of link with the slight excess mortality currently observed amongst the 0-49 years-old,” says the Institut de la statistique du Québec.
Excess mortality takes place when more people die during a given period than normally expected based on trends.
Institut de la statistique du Québec Demographer Frédéric Fleury-Payeur previously told The Epoch Times that caution is advised in interpreting the excess mortality in younger individuals, pointing to an upward trend dating before the pandemic.
“In this context, excess mortality in this group would be half what it [currently is] (but still present) if we measure it in comparison with the average of the 2016–2019 period,” he said.
Across Canada
Quebec wasn’t the only province registering a notable drop in births in 2022. British Columbia had 2,454 fewer births in 2022 compared to 2021, for a drop in birth rate of 7.65 percent, the largest among provinces.The provinces with the highest birth rates, Alberta and Saskatchewan, also documented decreases in 2022, but much smaller in comparison.
Not all provinces had lower births relative to their population in 2022. The most populated province, Ontario, which also welcomes the highest number of immigrants, saw its birth rate increase by almost 1 percent.
All Atlantic provinces also saw an increase in their birth rates in 2022, with Nova Scotia increasing above 15 percent. But each Atlantic province has a lower birth rate than Canada as a whole, with Newfoundland and Labrador at the bottom with a birth rate of 7.39 per 1,000.
This rate is similar to European countries such as Portugal (7.65 per 1,000) and Spain (7.92 per 1,000) in 2022, according to World Health Organization data.
Birth rates are highest in Africa, with multiple countries over 30 per 1,000.
