What Helped Poilievre Score His Decisive Win

Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre, now the new leader of the party, speaks at a press conference at Brandt Tractor Ltd. in Regina, Sask., on March 4, 2022. The Canadian Press/Michael Bell

Political pundits say Pierre Poilievre’s popularity with Conservative members comes from his focus on key issues that are of concern to Canadians.

Malcolm Bird, a political science professor at the University of Winnipeg, says Poilievre gained popularity by focusing on vital economic issues, personal freedoms, and the empowerment of families.

“Look at how many people he attracted to the party, look at how many people bothered to go and vote and pay money. That’s a good sign that it certainly shows that it mattered to some people a lot, and a lot more than last time,” Bird said.

The 43-year-old MP of the Ottawa-area Carleton riding won handily on the first ballot of the leadership election, with 68.15 percent of the allocated points and 70.7 percent of the votes.

Poilievre launched his campaign on Feb. 5 and drew large crowds at his rallies. By June he had signed up a record 311,958 members, a number that exceeded the membership totals the Conservatives had in either the 2017 or 2020 races. By comparison, Justin Trudeau signed up 150,000 new Liberal Party members before becoming leader in 2013.

‘Not Your Grandfather’s Tories’

Scott Bennett, an associate professor of political science at Carleton University, says Poilievre found success by emphasizing economic issues and not alienating social conservatives.

“Mr. Poilievre appeals to fiscal conservatives who want a smaller government. He also appeals to some populist elements who recognize that Canada is drifting far from ordinary principles of democracy. He is not primarily a social conservative concerned with cultural and moral issues. However, the social conservatives don’t dislike him. They just like some candidates more, and he respects them,” Bennett said.

“The groups that do dislike him are the hard-core followers of Patrick Brown and, more importantly, the people who think that the party has its best shot at winning if it is a watered-down version of the Liberals.”

Brown was disqualified from the race in July under allegations he had skirted party rules by how he acquired memberships. He endorsed Jean Charest, who finished second in the race with 16.07 percent of allocated points and 11.6 percent of votes cast.

Former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper endorsed Poilievre in July. Brooke Jeffrey, a professor of political science at Concordia University, says Poilievre’s alignment with the Harper tradition rings true to the party faithful.

“Poilievre is primarily popular with new Stephen Harper Conservatives of the Reform/Alliance/new Conservative Party stream. They control the party apparatus and leadership rule process as well, so his margin of victory is hardly a surprise. These are NOT your grandfather’s Tories,” Jeffrey said in an email.

“And so, of course, he is not popular with Progressive Conservatives of the old school, epitomized by Brian Mulroney, Joe Clark, Senator Majorie Lebreton, Hugh Segal, and Jean Charest. They don’t recognize themselves in this party, as they themselves have said.”

Don Desserud, a political science professor and researcher at the University of Prince Edward Island, believes some Conservatives like Poilievre because they dislike leaders seen as too “accommodating and generous to special interest groups.”

“Among these people, this is interpreted as a weakness. Therefore, they rally behind someone who they think rightly or wrongly isn’t afraid to ‘speak their mind’ and isn’t going to be swayed by pressures to follow a more politically correct path,” he said.

Geoffrey Hale, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Lethbridge, says Poilievre is the “most unapologetic conservative” to lead the Tories since Harper.

“Many Conservatives appreciate his combative approach to Mr. Trudeau, whether inside or outside the House. Of course, this makes him appear ‘polarizing’ to those who largely embrace the left-liberal worldview that shapes federal Liberal policies,” Hale said in an email.

“Mr. Poilievre is most likely to be effective if he appeals to Canadians’ interests on bread-and-butter issues and speaks to their economic concerns with practical approaches. He did this, to some extent, during the leadership campaign, and will have to continue doing it, while responding effectively to the inevitable attacks of the other parties.”

Will Poilievre Unite the Party?

Opinions were divided on whether Poilievre will take pains to foster more unity within the Conservative Party.

“I don’t think he'll try,” Desserud said.

“Poilievre is a ‘my way or the highway’ kind of person. His supporters, of course, like that about him. Whether other members of the party come on board is another matter. Poilievre may have underestimated them.”

Jeffrey says it “remains to be seen. He will not bend ... so inclusion will come on his terms.” She suspects Quebec caucus members “may put up quite a fuss or leave with maximum publicity” while others may “fade away and not participate.”

Pierre Paul-Hus, the only Quebec Conservative MP who endorsed Poilievre, said the 25,453 memberships he sold to Quebecers is significant. Andrew Scheer sold less than 10,000 memberships across Canada before becoming leader in 2017.

Charest was the first choice of just eight constituencies—six in Quebec and two in Ontario, while Poilievre took the other 330. Bennett believes the party has his back.

“He can unite about 80 to 90 percent of the party. I doubt that the Liberal-lite people will be onside. However, I am impressed with the emphasis most candidates are putting on unity after the leader is selected,” he said.

Tom Flanagan, former political science professor at the University of Calgary, says Poilievre’s “pretty overwhelming” popularity is only half the reason he will face an easier time than Harper did after gaining leadership of the fractured Canadian Alliance Party, then the post-merger Conservative Party.

“There were some deep animosities there, but [Harper] managed to get his former opponents working together,” Flanagan said.

“Sometimes it doesn’t work, but if it happens in a way that shows that you didn’t drive them out then it isn’t that damaging. At a certain point, you’re better off if irreconcilable people leave.”

Poilievre has been an MP since 2004, having first been elected as a 25-year-old. Flanagan says he benefited from learning first-hand how Harper kept the party united.

“You have to make your opponents feel that they have important positions in the party. Treat them with respect. Do what you can to make them happy. Restrain your more ardent followers so that they don’t try and continue the campaign once it’s over,” he advised.

“Give some marginal victories to your opponents, whatever they’re interested in. With the pro-life element in the party, [Harper] didn’t give them a lot, but in the realm of foreign policy he did some things that they liked, like cutting off family planning systems in Africa.”

Such advice may be helpful for Poilievre, given pro-life candidate Leslyn Lewis’s third-place finish with 9.69 percent and 11.1 percent of first ballot votes.

Former Ontario MPP Roman Baber finished fourth with half as much support. However, Poilievre may have already placated freedom advocates who backed Baber, having supported the truckers’ convoy and walked with James Topp in the final leg of his march to Ottawa in protest of vaccine mandates.

Bird notes that, given the Conservative Party “is a bigger tent,” [it] allows for discussion, dissent, and social conservatives.”

“Where else are the social conservatives going to go?”