Published COVID-19 Case Numbers ‘Don’t Reflect Reality’: QLD Chief Health Officer

Queensland's newly appointed Chief Health Officer Dr. John Gerrard speaks during a press conference in Brisbane, Australia, on Dec. 13, 2021. Dan Peled/Getty Images

The true numbers of COVID-19 cases in one popular Australian tourism destination might be five to 10 times higher than publicly reported, experts and officials in the state of Queensland have concluded, after the results of a randomised survey released on Feb. 3.

The Gold Coast Public Health Unit went door-to-door on the Gold Coast on Jan. 22 collecting PCR tests from what it acknowledged was only a small sample size.

The results from 117 households indicated that 20 of the randomly selected people—around 17 percent—tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus.

Only four of the 20 people who tested positive reported having any symptoms, leading the state government to declare that one in six Gold Coasters may have been positive and living with the virus during the peak of the Omicron wave in January.

Beachfront hotels at Surfers Paradise on the Gold Coast in Gold Coast, Australia, on April 7, 2017. Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

As a result, Queensland Chief Health Officer Dr. John Gerrard has said the numbers of COVID-19 cases publicly reported “don’t really mean anything.”

“We identified yesterday from the Gold Coast study that ... for every person who had a clear diagnosis of COVID 19 from a PCR or RAT test, there were five to 10 others who were not aware they were positive,” Gerrard told reporters in Brisbane on Feb. 4.

“So the published numbers of positives probably don’t reflect the reality. We know they don’t reflect the reality. That’s why hospital admissions are more useful marker, even though they do lag a bit.”

For more “useful markers” the government looks at the percentage of tests that are positive and absenteeism in workforces.

Infection disease expert Assoc. Prof. Paul Griffin from the University of Queensland has said the results of the survey were not unexpected.

“I don’t think it’s a concern. I think it’s what we expected. With test positivity rates as high as they’ve been, we expected there were a lot of cases out there we weren’t finding—perhaps even five or 10 times what we were reporting at certain times,” Griffin told Seven’s Sunrise on Feb. 4.

“We know particularly people that are vaccinated can have few to no symptoms and if anything, that’s a strength of the vaccine, not a weakness. And so this really shows us, I guess, what most of us really thought for some time.”

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk watches newly appointed Chief Health Officer Dr. John Gerrard as he speaks during a press conference in Brisbane, Australia, on Dec. 13, 2021. Dan Peled/Getty Images

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has said the results of the survey showed the need for Gold Coasters to get vaccinated and booster shots.

“Initial results indicate COVID-19 is considerably more common in the community than reported and that many people who are infectious may not be aware,” Palaszczuk said in a release.

“This particularly true for fully vaccinated and boosted Queenslanders, who are benefiting from the protective effects of the vaccine.”

A follow up survey of another 143 random Gold Coast households one week later on Jan. 29 revealed the infection rate had more than halved to 11 out of 143—around seven percent.

Of the 11 who tested positive, six reported having symptoms, with only two who were aware that they were positive.

Health Minister Yvette D’Ath said the government would monitor the situation and refine its response in light of any updated data and modelling.

The release did not specify the vaccination status of the survey participants.