Provincial Elections: BC, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick Head to Polls in 2024

B.C. Premier David Eby, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, and New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs. The Canadian Press/Chad Hipolito; Heywood Yu; Stephen MacGillivray

Three provinces in Canada will be heading to the polls later this year, and all of them some time before the end of October.

The incumbent premiers of British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick have confirmed they will be running for re-election in 2024.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, despite losing two Regina seats in a summer byelection to the NDP, is still among the top most-supported premiers in Canada, a status he has consistently held onto over the years. Mr. Moe has been in the news in 2023 for his rebuke of Ottawa over energy policies and the carbon tax, as well as his legislation supporting parental rights over transgender and other issues in schools.  The NDP, meanwhile, sees the two byelection wins as a positive sign in their bid to form government again for the first time since their 2007 loss.

B.C. Premier David Eby will be going into his first election as premier and NDP leader this year, while BC United, formerly the B.C. Liberal Party, will be experiencing their first election under their new name. The province is experiencing new political dynamics as the recently rejuvenated Conservative Party of B.C. has been gaining major support, at times overtaking BC United as the main contender against the NDP in recent polls.

In New Brunswick, Premier Blaine Higgs faced challenges within his party in 2023, including a failed attempt to oust him as Progressive Conservative leader over his parental rights policy. Mr. Higgs, who is seeking a third term in office, said recently he will not back down from changes supporting parental rights that his government made to Policy 713. Mr. Higgs will be facing off against Susan Holt, his main opponent who became leader of the provincial Liberals in May 2023.

British Columbia

Mr. Eby, a former attorney general for B.C., took over the job as premier after his predecessor John Horgan announced in June 2022 that he would be leaving the role. He won the NDP leadership vote after his only challenger, Anjali Appadurai, was disqualified for misconduct.

The province’s official opposition, the BC United, lost two MLAs to the Conservative Party of B.C., which now holds official party status in the legislature. Current leader John Rustad joined the party in February after BC United removed him from caucus for his comments on climate change, while Bruce Banman left BC United in September.

The Conservatives took second place in the polls last fall, behind the NDP and ahead of BC United. A Leger survey in October found that support for the Conservatives was at 25 percent, while BC United had dropped to third place with 19 percent. The ruling NDP came in at 42 percent.

An Abacus Data poll released in December showed the Conservatives were still in second place with 26 percent, ahead of BC United at 17 percent. The NDP were at 44 percent. The Conservatives have risen 24 points over the past few years, the poll said.

The top issues for B.C. voters are cost of living, inflation, and the need for affordable housing, Abacus found.

Mr. Eby’s approval rating has changed little over the past year, according to a poll by Angus Reid. He started the year at a 46 percent approval rating, rose to 48 percent in March, and then dropped in June to 45 percent. In September, it rose again to 48 percent, but as of last month, his approval had fallen to 46 percent.

The B.C. election is required to be held by Oct. 19, 2024.

Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan will also be heading to the polls some time before the end of October.

Mr. Moe’s Saskatchewan Party won over 60 percent of the vote in the 2020 general election while the NDP, the official opposition, garnered 31 percent.

The premier made headlines in 2023 when his government introduced a bill that would require schools to seek parental consent before students could change their names or pronouns in the classroom.

The government also revised sexual health education by prohibiting presentations by third parties in schools after an incident in which Planned Parenthood brought a deck of sexually explicit playing cards to a Grade 9 presentation in Lumsden. The cards, called “Sex: From A-Z,” had descriptions of sexual acts that included urine, feces, and semen.

Saskatchewan has also challenged Ottawa’s carbon pricing scheme, with Mr. Moe has saying his government will no longer collect the tax as of this month. The move came after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a pause on the carbon tax on heating oil, an exemption that largely benefits Atlantic Canada, and refused to extend the pause to other types of home heating.

In the election, Mr. Moe’s government will go up against the NDP, led by Carla Beck. Ms. Beck and her party were against the provincial government’s pronoun bill, but did not have enough votes to prevent the legislation from passing.

The NDP did support the Saskatchewan Party when it came to challenging the carbon tax, however.

Ahead of the election, NDP is focusing on cost-of-living issues as well as health care, while denouncing Mr. Moe’s school pronouns policy.

Saskatchewan’s election is scheduled to be held by Oct. 28, 2024.

New Brunswick

In 2023, N.B. Premier Higgs encountered internal division over some of his policies, including the decision to change Policy 713, which deals with gender and social issues in schools. The changes require schools to receive parental consent before students can change their names or pronouns.

Mr. Higgs said at the time that there has been an “erosion of the family role,” and his Policy 713 changes were designed to include parents in discussions around their children’s upbringing.

Several MLAs attempted to oust Mr. Higgs over the summer by gathering letters from party riding presidents calling for a leadership review. He also lost two ministers around the same time.  Mr. Higgs has said that he stands by his Policy 713, and is proud of his record on financial stability, low taxes, and an increase in private sector investments.

In the last election, the PCs won against their main rivals, the provincial Liberals led by the high-profile former Sergeant at Arms Kevin Vickers.

The party is now led by Susan Holt, who is focusing on access to health care as well as housing as some of the top election issues.

The third party in the province is the Green Party of New Brunswick led by David Coon. The party currently has three seats in the legislature.

N.B. voters will go to the polls by Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press and Matthew Horwood contributed to this report.