Prisons Will Run out of Space by 2026, MPs Warn

In the year leading up to September 2024, prisoner fights increased by 14 percent, while assaults on prison staff saw a 19 percent rise.

Signage is pictured outside HMP Belmarsh prison in southeast London on Dec. 10, 2021. Hollie Adams/AFP via Getty Images

The prison system in England and Wales is on the verge of running out of space by early 2026, as years of failed government efforts to expand capacity have left the system in crisis, a parliamentary report has warned.

A report from the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), published on Friday, found that a 2021 plan to create 20,000 additional prison places by the mid-2020s was “completely unrealistic.”

Thousands of spaces are now expected to be delivered five years late, at an extra cost of £4.2 billion, an 80 percent increase on original estimates.

Despite emergency measures such as early prisoner releases, the committee said the prison system still faces “total gridlock” next year.

Between October 2022 and August 2024, the adult male prison estate operated at between 98 and 99.7 percent occupancy, with a quarter of prisoners now doubled up in cells meant for one person.

“Lives are being put at increasing risk by the government’s historic failures to increase capacity. Despite the recent emergency release of thousands of prisoners, the system still faces total gridlock in a matter of months,” said PAC Chairman Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown.

Overcrowding

The report highlights overcrowding as a major factor driving higher rates of violence and self-harm, with recorded incidents increasing significantly in the year to September 2024.

Fights between prisoners rose by 14 percent, while attacks on prison staff jumped by 19 percent over the same period.

“Severely overcrowded prisons are in danger of becoming pressure cookers, with vital rehabilitative work sidelined as staff are forced to focus on controlling unsafe environments.

“Many prisoners themselves are living in simply inhumane conditions, with their health needs often overlooked,” Clifton-Brown said.

The committee criticised the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) for failing to anticipate the scale of the problem.

Plans relied on securing planning permission for new prisons in just 26 weeks, a target that proved unrealistic. The government also expected Treasury and Cabinet Office support for rapid project delivery, which did not materialise.

Last year, the National Audit Office (NAO) said the government’s prison expansion plans will take five years longer than expected and cost at least £4.2 billion more than originally planned.

The NAO also found that as of September 2024, only one-third of the promised 20,000 extra places had been delivered.

The prison population is projected to rise to between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029, with a central estimate of 100,800, according to MoJ forecasts.

The increase is attributed to higher prosecution rates, tougher sentencing policies, and longer sentences for serious offenders.

Calls for Reform

Prison reform charities echoed concerns about the crisis.

Andrea Coomber, chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, stressed the government’s responsibility to ensure prisoners’ rehabilitation.

“But this is not happening, because prisons are overwhelmed. At the end of January, almost 70 prisons in England and Wales were holding more people than they were designed to accommodate, and about 20 more were operating at 95 to 99 percent capacity. It is no coincidence that violence and self-harm are at endemic levels,” she added.

She also called on ministers to reduce demand on the prison system and implement sentencing reforms.

Coomber argued that funding earmarked for building new prisons would be better spent on an effective probation service.

Meanwhile, the PAC urged the MoJ and HMPPS to make realistic plans and explain how they will handle risks, especially delays in planning permission. It also called for a review of how overcrowding affects self-harm, violence, education, and rehabilitation.

Government Response

Prisons and probation minister Lord Timpson defended the government’s approach, blaming previous administrations for the crisis.

“This report exposes the catalogue of failures we inherited which almost collapsed our entire prison system. This not only risked public safety but added billions in extra costs to taxpayers,” he said.

The minister added that the government is now delivering on a “plan for change,” including 14,000 new prison places by 2031.

Last week, the government announced a 700-place expansion of HMP Highpoint in Suffolk, aiming to turn it into the UK’s largest public sector prison.

Labour has also vowed to review sentencing policies “so we never run out of space again.”