Potential Carney Leadership Boosts Liberals as NDP Voters Shift, Narrowing Gap with Tories: Poll

Mark Carney speaks during his Liberal leadership campaign launch in Edmonton on Jan. 16, 2025. (The Canadian Press/Jason Franson) Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland speaks at a press conference in Toronto on Jan. 19, 2025, as she kicks off her campaign to become the next Liberal party leader. The Canadian Press/Frank Gunn

Canada’s federal political landscape is shifting as some Liberal and NDP supporters back leadership contender Mark Carney, intensifying the competition between the governing Liberal and Conservative parties, a new poll suggests.

Support for the Liberals has risen to 37 percent under the hypothetical leadership of former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, placing the party a close second behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives who lead voting intent at 40 percent, according to new polling from the Angus Reid Institute.

The surge in Liberal popularity comes at the expense of the NDP, whose support has fallen from 21 percent in December to 10 percent this month, polling indicates.

If Carney was at the helm, 42 percent of individuals who previously voted NDP in 2021 show an inclination to vote for the Liberal party, the poll found. Forty-four percent said they would still choose the NDP.

In a scenario where former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland takes over the Liberal Party leadership, the NDP’s vote intention increases to 16 percent while the Liberals decline to 29 percent, the survey said.

If Carney was leader, the Liberals would perform best in Ontario and Quebec, where they are currently in a statistical deadlock in voter intention with the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois, respectively, poll data suggests. Under Freeland’s leadership, the Liberals would experience a decline in support in both Ontario and Quebec.

A Carney-led Liberal party would also be better positioned to retain the Liberals’ own 2021 vote, the poll found, with 81 percent saying they would repeat their vote for the party while 63 percent say the same under Freeland.

Leader Favourability

The poll also gauged Canadians’ impressions of opposition party leaders and Liberal leadership candidates.

Despite the success the Tories have had in garnering voter support, there has been a rise in negative perceptions of Poilievre since the summer, with 56 percent of Canadians saying they have a negative view of the Tory leader, the highest unfavourability rating for Poilievre since he won the party leadership in 2022.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has the lowest net favorability among all party leaders, with a -25 rating compared to Poilievre’s net favourability score of -19.

Freeland’s score comes in at -20, and Carney was viewed more positively by those surveyed, receiving a +9 net favourability score.

Meanwhile, Canadians polled largely viewed Poilievre as the leader best positioned to help Canada deal with several key issues.

Thirty-seven percent of respondents said Poilievre was best equipped to deal with the cost of living and inflation, compared to Carney at 34 percent and Singh at 10 percent. He was also pegged as the best to handle health care at 29 percent while Singh pulled 25 percent of the vote and Carney 22 percent.

Poilievre also led in the ability to improve housing affordability at 33 percent compared to Carney at 21 percent and Singh at 18 percent.

Carney edged out Poilievre by one point on improving the economy, garnering 38 percent compared to the Tory leader’s 37 percent. Only 7 percent thought Singh was the man for the job.

Carney also came first in dealing with U.S. tariffs, with 37 percent of respondents saying he was best equipped to handle U.S. President Donald Trump compared to the 35 percent received by Poilievre. Singh garnered just 5 percent.

With Chrystia Freeland as the Liberal leader, Poilievre led on every single issue. Freeland took second in every category except health care, where she was beaten by Singh by a seven point margin.