As countries work toward a Ukraine peace deal, Britain is under growing pressure to navigate its post-Brexit reset with the EU while deepening ties with the United States—all while trying to avoid being caught in a geopolitical divide.
Most European nations strongly support Ukraine, with an exception of a few outliers, and are focused on strengthening its security.
“If anything, the past week has shown that that idea is totally unserious. Because while some people may enjoy the simplicity of taking a side, this week has shown with total clarity that the US is vital in securing the peace we all want to see in Ukraine,” he told MPs.
Britain may not want to choose between its two key allies, but the risk of having to is real, according to the director of the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, Anand Menon.
“The danger is that we will have to choose. The more we tie our economic future to the U.S., the harder it becomes to work with the EU.
“For example, if the UK were to sign an agricultural trade deal with the United States, which operates under different regulatory standards, it would make an SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) agreement with the European Union impossible. And that’s a situation we’re desperate to avoid,” Menon told The Epoch Times.
He warned that if relations between the EU and the U.S. become increasingly binary, Britain’s efforts to maintain a middle ground could backfire. If the UK is seen as aligning too closely with Washington, it may cause friction in Brussels, making cooperation more difficult.
“Being forced to choose is a nightmare situation for the UK, and it’s one we’re desperate to avoid,” Menon added.
Robert Oulds, the director of the Bruges Group, believes that Starmer will eventually have to choose between aligning more with the EU or the United States.
“Britain cannot maintain a special relationship with the US while also being tied to EU policies and procurement decisions,” he told The Epoch Times.
Oulds warned that re-engaging too closely with the EU would be a mistake with long-term consequences.
Leadership Challenge
As tensions rise over the trans-Atlantic divide on how to approach a Ukraine peace deal, the UK has been engaging closely with its European allies. Starmer, who has maintained strong relations with the U.S. administration, hosted European leaders in London over the weekend for a security summit.
It followed the fallout between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump on Feb. 28.
Starmer has emphasised that Britain must “lead from the front” in a European “coalition of the willing” to secure a stable peace deal in Ukraine.
According to Menon, Britain’s opportunity to take a leadership role in the Ukraine crisis is based on several factors.
“First, the EU doesn’t really do matters of hard security, so that’s usually NATO or coalitions of states who do the sort of military stuff.
“Secondly, because the EU is divided, so EU leaders have a vested interest to take these debates elsewhere.
“Third thing, because of the UK’s unique position, that’s trying to keep on good terms with both Europeans and with the United States, it’s given an opportunity for the UK to play this kind of leadership role early on.”
At the London summit, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—the three Baltic nations on NATO’s eastern flank with Russia—were notably absent after the UK failed to invite them.
Defence Spending
On Tuesday, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, outlined a five-point plan called ReArm Europe. The measure could boost the EU’s defence spending by 800 billion euros ($840 billion).“We are in an era of rearmament, and Europe is ready to massively increase its spending, both to respond to the short-term urgency to act and to support Ukraine, but also to invest in the long term, to take on more responsibility for our own European security,” she said.
Meanwhile, the UK has committed to boost its defence spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027, aiming to reach 3 percent within the decade.
The European Union has 27 member countries and does not include Britain, Norway, Turkey or Iceland, which are in NATO.
Oulds suggested that the EU is trying to replace NATO, creating its own defence institutions that divert resources and attention away from the alliance.
“The EU is building its own empire, and that will inevitably come at the expense of NATO and our special relationship with the United States,” he said.
He also warned that trying to balance trade policies with both the EU and the United States may not be sustainable.
According to Menon, a key question is whether the UK will be allowed to participate in these initiatives, as they have traditionally been limited to single market members.
Domestic Challenges
The UK and its European allies are advancing a four-part plan for peace in Ukraine, including long-term defence support among other key measures.Starmer told MPs that backing Ukraine is in Britain’s national interest, arguing that failure to support Kyiv could deepen instability and insecurity, further affecting the living standards of working people in the UK.
Balancing economic stability with foreign policy commitments will be a crucial test for the government, whose agenda centres around economic growth.
According to Anand Menon, the government could justify shifting its spending priorities by arguing that the world has changed and policies must evolve accordingly.
“The question is whether the government is willing to take that risk,” he said.
While public support for Ukraine remains high, it is unclear if that will continue should it lead to higher taxes. Menon also noted that while opposition parties like the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats largely back the UK’s role in Ukraine, they may push back against any tax increases to fund additional military aid.
Meanwhile, Ould believes Britain cannot afford to fund both its own struggling public services and Ukraine’s defence.
“We have a real problem with immigration. Yet we’re worried about other countries’ borders above our own.
“It’s time for a reality check—the British people should come first,” he said.
