Following the collapse of the Syrian regime on Dec. 8, regional and international actors are scrambling to consolidate their positions in a country riven by conflict for more than a decade.
Many experts also believe that the sudden fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his government could further destabilize an already volatile region.
“Civil unrest will continue in the near term,” Turkish political analyst Aydin Sezer told The Epoch Times. “Judging by the examples of Iraq and Libya, this new era will continue to generate risks. External factors will play a decisive role.”
Francis Boyle, a professor of international law at the University of Illinois, also expressed concern that post-Assad Syria “could descend into chaos like Libya.”
Turkey, Kurdish YPG
Turkey severed relations with Damascus after the Syrian conflict first erupted in 2011. Since then, it has supported a host of groups devoted to ousting Assad and his government, now a fait accompli.
After Damascus fell, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hailed what he called a “new era” in Syria, proclaiming Ankara’s support for the Syrian people.
Fidan said that Ankara hoped to see “a new Syria that will have good relations with its neighbors and contribute to peace and stability in the region.”
According to Oytun Orhan, a Turkish Middle East expert, Ankara has emerged on the winning side of the equation, but there are also risks for Turkey.
Ankara’s overriding concern, he said, was “Turkey’s fight against the YPG,” referring to the Kurdish PKK’s Syrian affiliate.
In recent days, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) has conducted a major offensive in northern Syria, where it wrested significant territory from the YPG, including the strategic towns of Manbij and Tel Rifaat.
“That’s a victory for Turkey,” said Orhan, who specializes in the Levant region at Ankara’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies.
Another benefit accruing to Turkey is that Ankara “will now find a closer friend in Damascus, at least closer compared to the Assad regime,” he said.
“Turkey will have the opportunity to work with the new Syrian government in its fight against the YPG,” he said.
Orhan said that unlike the Turkish-backed SNA, there was “no direct support or relationship” between Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the terrorist group that led the offensive against Damascus.
He said that in recent years, “Turkish entities and the HTS coexisted in Syria’s Idlib area,” from which the offensive against Damascus was initially launched late last month.
“I don’t know the exact level of Turkey’s role [in the offensive],” Orhan said. “Whether it was a green light [from Ankara] or support ... this is not well known.”
Sezer said there was “no doubt” regarding Ankara’s role in the lightning offensive that ultimately brought down Assad.
“How else could the weapons and ammunition held by HTS be delivered to the region?” he told The Epoch Times.
Sezer said that the fall of Assad has created a “favorable political climate for Kurdish groups to declare autonomy” in parts of Syria they currently hold, “which poses a risk for Turkey.”
‘Strategic Loss’ for Iran, Hezbollah
Iran, which had kept forces in Syria since 2013 to support Assad, was caught off guard by the Syrian military’s failure to protect the regime.“What was surprising was the inability of the Syrian army to confront ... the armed groups [opposed to Assad],” Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araqchi said on Dec. 9.
Araqchi blamed the regime’s unexpected collapse on a “behind-the-scenes plot” by Israel and the United States aimed at destroying the “axis of resistance,” which includes Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and other anti-Israel groups in the region.
He described Assad’s Syria as an important member of that alliance, which, he said, played an “important role” in confronting Israel and “defending the Palestinians.”
Araqchi also said that a key component of Iran’s alliance with Syria was the “joint fight” against ISIS, which seized control of vast swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq in the period from 2014 to 2019.
According to Orhan, the fall of Assad represents a strategic loss for Iran.
“Iran had a strategic alliance with the Assad regime since the early 1980s,” he said. “It had established a very strong militia network within Syria. That influence was lost in just two weeks.”
Orhan said that most of these Iran-backed militias, including Hezbollah, have now likely withdrawn from Syria.
In a Dec. 9 statement, Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah-affiliated member of Lebanon’s parliament, said unfolding events in Syria constituted a “dangerous and new transformation,” the implications of which were still being assessed.
The HTS-led offensive against Damascus was initially launched on Nov. 27, the same day that a cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel went into effect.
“Syria has long been a strategic link by which Iran could reach both Lebanon and Israel,” Orhan said.
The fall of the Assad regime, he added, means that both of those links have been broken.
Sezer agreed, saying the fall of Damascus had already disrupted, or destroyed, Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah, which was already reeling from more than a year of intense conflict with Israel.
Russia Loses ‘Last Castle’
Moscow, which has granted asylum to Assad and his family, has had a substantial military presence in Syria since 2015 to support the regime.It also maintains an airbase in Syria’s eastern Latakia Province, along with a naval base near the coastal city of Tartus.
In the first days of the offensive against Damascus, Russian warplanes assisted the Syrian military in attempting to halt the advance on the capital.
Hours after Damascus fell, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Assad had decided to relinquish power after talks with several “participants”—it did not say which ones—in the years-long Syria conflict.
According to Orhan, Assad’s abrupt departure also left Russia on the “losing side,” albeit not to the same extent as Iran, which Moscow regards as an ally.
“Since the Soviet era, Syria has remained within Russia’s sphere of influence,” he said. “Russia also invested a lot after 2015, when it intervened militarily in Syria.
“Russia has effectively lost its last castle in the Middle East, which it had used to project its influence across the wider region.”
“This will likely impact its relations with other regional players, including Iraq and the Gulf States,” he added, noting that the fate of Russia’s military bases in Syria remains unclear.
“In any event, this will end Russia’s dream of becoming a significant actor in the Eastern Mediterranean.”
Orhan said that Assad’s abrupt abdication may have been due to “some kind of agreement” between Moscow and Washington “related to the situation in Ukraine.”
Sezer, for his part, downplayed the long-term effect of Russia’s apparent setback.
“I don’t think Russia has lost. It will definitely be needed to stabilize Syria,” he said. “The fact that it has not yet abandoned its bases can be taken as a sign.”
Moscow, he added, “is patient and prioritizes global goals over regional ones in its foreign policy.”
Sezer said that “Assad’s last meeting with the [Syrian] armed forces was held with Russia’s knowledge.”
Shortly after Damascus fell, Moscow said there was “no serious threat” to its bases in Syria, while stating that they had been put on “high alert.”
‘Historic Day’ for Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hailed Assad’s fall as a “historic day” that “offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers.”For more than a year, Israel has been locked in conflict with Hezbollah and has traded unprecedented missile barrages with Iran.
Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has fought three major conflicts with Syria, with which it has technically remained in a state of war.
In recent years, Israel has carried out frequent airstrikes on military targets across Syria, to which the latter has typically refrained from responding.
In his video message, Netanyahu said Israel sought to establish “neighborly relations ... with the new forces emerging in Syria.”
“But if we do not, we’ll do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel,” he said, adding that Israel had no intention of getting involved in the country’s internal conflicts.
Within hours of the fall of Damascus, Israeli forces entered a demilitarized zone inside Syrian territory.
According to an Israeli military spokesperson, Israeli troops remain deployed in the buffer zone and in “a few additional points” nearby.
“For the time being, one can say Israel—and the United States—are winning in Syria,” Sezer said. “The process that Israel began in Gaza with Hamas—and continued in Lebanon with Hezbollah—has now reached Damascus.”
A top U.S. official has since confirmed that U.S. forces deployed in eastern Syria, where they work closely with Washington’s Kurdish allies, would remain in the country to fight the ISIS terrorist group.
“We are still committed to that mission,” U.S. deputy national security adviser Jon Finer told reporters on Dec. 10.
