Polls Suggest Defeat for Scholz as Germany Faces Snap Election

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reacts at a media briefing following his bilateral talks with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud at the Chancellery in Berlin on Nov. 5, 2024. Annegret Hilse/Reuters

Germany is set to hold snap elections in February, and early polls suggest that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party will be defeated.

Scholz is expected to ask for a vote of confidence in his government on Dec. 16, paving the way for a new parliamentary election by February.

However, the final decision on the exact date of the election—which Reuters reported as Feb. 23—rests with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

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Scholz’s three-way alliance made up of his center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the left-wing eco party Greens, and the center-right Free Democratic Party (FDP) faced increasing pressure as it struggled over disputes about economic priorities.

Europe’s largest economy is facing its second year of contraction, grappling with the end of affordable Russian gas and historic Volkswagen factory closures as it struggles to compete with lower-cost Chinese electric vehicles.

After sacking Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the FDP on Nov. 7, Scholz now runs a minority government with the backing of the Greens.

The coalition lost its parliamentary majority on Nov. 6, when the FDP quit over spending, borrowing, and the rejection of any softening of climate goals. The FDP wanted the target date for some net-zero goals to be delayed for five years.

Polls

Early polls suggest Scholz’s party could be defeated in a snap election.

According to a recent Forsa poll conducted between Nov. 5 and Nov. 11, Germany’s center-right force made up of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union led with 33 percent support, followed by the right-wing anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 17 percent. The SPD is at 16 percent.

The Greens hold 11 percent; the left-wing nationalist, populist, Eurosceptic, and socially conservative party Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is at 5 percent; the FDP is at 4 percent; and the left-wing Die Linke stands at 3 percent.

A leader in Scholz’s Social Democrats said the party is standing by the chancellor.

“Now it’s about experience and competence, and I am sure that Olaf Scholz is the right candidate,” SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Muetzenich told reporters.

“[Scholz conveys] trust, competence, experience, but at the same time also the necessary emotions.”

AfD

In September, in the state of Brandenburg, Scholz’s SPD narrowly defeated the right-wing AfD, receiving 30.9 percent of the vote compared with the AfD’s 29.2 percent.

Although the AfD did not replicate its historic win in neighboring Thuringia, the party’s anti-immigration stance, skepticism of net-zero policies, and opposition to the Russia–Ukraine war continue to resonate with a significant portion of voters.

Scholz has urged other parties to block the AfD from governing.

AfD leaders have called for strict border controls and a reduction in illegal immigrants. The party has also pushed for preserving what it sees as traditional German culture and says that “Islam does not belong to Germany.”

The policies also include opposition to climate action agendas and critiques of European Union integration.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance came in third in both Thuringia and Saxony by combining a new brand of left-leaning economics with conservative immigration policies and opposition to arming Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Complicated

Richard Schenk, a research fellow at the think tank MCC Brussels, previously told The Epoch Times that snap elections are complicated in Germany and cannot be called immediately.

Schenk said it’s possible that the CDU, FDP, and AfD could hold a minority in Parliament together.

However, he said conservatives are very afraid of this minority government situation, as the AfD is going to bring forward proposals for economic policy that are “out of the CDU and FDP playbook.”

“Then [the CDU] would either have to maintain this firewall, this cordon sanitaire, and basically refuse their own proposals, or they would have to accept the AfD proposals,” he said.

“There is a very interesting constitutional provision in the German constitution, exactly for this case, which would allow ... basically for the government to bypass the Parliament and only pass legislation with the upper chamber, the Federal Council.

“But nobody ever has triggered this ‘nuclear option.’”

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.