Poll Shows Poilievre’s Conservatives Leading by 12 Points Over Trudeau’s Liberals

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre greet each other in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Sept. 15, 2022. (The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick)

A new poll has the federal Conservative Party leading by 12 points over the Liberals and the majority of Canadians stating Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should step down from power. This is the largest lead that Abacus has measured for the party now led by Pierre Poilievre since the 2015 federal election.

In data released Aug. 25 from a national survey of 2,189 adults from Aug. 18 to 23, Abacus said its latest polling of political opinions in Canada places the Conservatives in a 12-point lead over the Liberals. Across all age groups and among men and women, Conservatives lead.

Of those asked to indicate their intention for the next federal vote, 38 percent said they would vote Conservative while only 26 percent said they would vote Liberal. Another 19 percent would vote NDP.

Respondents were asked if Trudeau should run again or remove himself as Liberal leader and prime minister, 56 percent of Canadians said Mr. Trudeau should step down. Only 27 percent felt he should run again, and another 17 percent were not sure.

Specifically among voters who supported the Liberal party in the 2021 election, 28 percent said Mr. Trudeau should step down, while 52 percent said he should run again. Another 20 percent were not sure.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivers a keynote address at the 2023 Liberal National Convention in Ottawa on May 4, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Justin Tang)

Quebec voters were the most likely to say Mr. Trudeau should run again (33 percent), while Alberta voters were the least likely to be in favour of another term with the same PM (15 percent). In Ontario, 28 percent said Mr. Trudeau should run again, while 26 percent in B.C. responded similarly.

“But perhaps most striking, 1 in 4 of those who said they voted Liberal in 2021 want Trudeau to step down,” said Abacus.

“Among this group, 46 percent would vote Liberal again but 35 percent would vote Conservative and 13 percent would vote NDP. Those saying they would vote Conservative or NDP constitute 4 percent of decided voters.”

By gender, 41 percent of males and 35 percent of females indicated they would vote Conservative in the next federal election. Only 25 percent of males and 26 percent of females would vote Liberal.

Regionally, the Conservatives are ahead by 19 points in British Columbia, 40 points in Alberta, and 22 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In all three provinces, the Liberals are in third place with the NDP in second.

In Ontario as well, the Conservatives are ahead by 8 points, with the Bloc Quebecois leading in Quebec slightly, with a 5-point gain over the Liberals. Atlantic Canada reports a statistical tie between the Conservatives (38 percent) and the Liberals (33 percent), according to Abacus.

In Ontario, where more than 1,000 voters were surveyed, the Liberals were ahead by 6 points in Toronto but trailed the Conservatives by 10 points in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (postal codes beginning with L).

The two parties are tied in Eastern Ontario while the Conservatives have a 20-point lead in Southwestern Ontario.

Poilievre Gaining Popularity

Voter feelings toward Mr. Poilievre have improved significantly, even just in the last four weeks.

“Finally, when we look at public impressions of the party leaders, we see a notable improvement in Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers. Today, 34 percent have a positive impression of the Conservative leader (up 4 in 2 weeks) while those with a negative view are down 3 to 35 percent,” said Abacus.

Back in April 2022, only 22 percent had a favourable impression of the Conservative leader, for example, according to the August Abacus poll.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre arrives for a media conference in Toronto on July 20, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Cole Burston)

The poll showed Mr. Trudeau’s overall image scoring a negative impression, at 53 percent, which Abacus described as a “new high,” significantly more disapproval since a negative score in June 2021 of only 39 percent.

As for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, his overall rating has not changed significantly, sitting at about 34 percent positive and 31 percent negative.

Mr. Poilievre has gained more attention as a result of a recent ad campaign, said Abacus, with 28 percent of English-speaking Canadians saying they recall seeing the video of the Conservative leader and another 12 percent stating they think they saw it.

“That’s a possible 40 percent penetration in just over two weeks,” said Abacus. Of those who saw the video, 49 percent said they felt more positive toward Mr. Poilievre, 42 percent said it did not impact their views, and only 8 percent said they viewed Mr. Poilievre more negatively.

Younger Canadians and women were more likely to say the video improved their impression of the Conservative leader. “Perhaps most important, 1 in 3 NDP and Liberal voters in 2021 say the video makes them feel better,” notes Abacus.

Abacus Data Chair and CEO David Coletto said the survey results show the Conservatives are “leading considerably, particularly in regions like British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba.”

“Their lead in Ontario, combined with a tight race in Atlantic Canada, suggests that the party has garnered widespread appeal over the past few months and the shift wasn’t a blip and could be the new state of play,” suggested Mr. Coletto.

He notes that more than half of Canadians believe Mr. Trudeau needs to step aside from the Liberal party, even “a significant portion” of those who voted Liberal in the last election in 2021.

Mr. Coletto said the data “suggests that the Prime Minister may no longer be an asset for his party in its quest to win another election.”