Recent developments have marked a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape between China and the Philippines. Facing increasing pressure from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Philippines is abandoning its traditionally passive approach. In a notable strategic pivot, it is now advocating for the creation of a “circle of friends” within Southeast Asia to collectively confront the CCP’s influence.
Concurrently, both the United States and Japan are intensifying their efforts to curb the CCP’s growing challenges to global stability. Japanese defense authorities have noted a rising probability of a “Philippines incident,” now deemed more likely than a “Taiwan incident.”
China’s frequent deployment of coast guard vessels in the South China Sea, a region rife with sovereignty disputes with the Philippines, has escalated tensions. Notable incidents include the harassment of Philippine supply ships at the Ayungin Shoal.
Strategic Shift: Creating a Southeast Asian Alliance Against Chinese Aggression
During a recent stop in Hawaii following the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met with U.S. military leaders and local Filipino community members. He underscored the gravity of the situation, citing Chinese military bases located merely 60 nautical miles from the Philippine coastline.Defiantly, President Marcos Jr. vowed that the Philippines would not yield to CCP intimidation. He announced a strategic initiative to forge a “circle of friends” in Southeast Asia, aimed at collectively countering the China’s advances.
The Philippine president has engaged in discussions with Malaysia and Vietnam about establishing an alternative code of conduct in the region and is actively promoting this initiative among other Southeast Asian nations.
For years, countries within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have sought to negotiate a code of conduct with the China to manage tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. However, these efforts have been met with disappointment, yielding no substantive outcomes.
President Marcos Jr. suggested a shift away from reliance on China, advocating for a united front among ASEAN nations to establish new norms and standards to counter Chinese threats.
Further, the Philippines is exploring collaborations with like-minded nations, including the United States, Australia, Japan, and South Korea, to ensure regional stability and security.
Ramps Up Military Drills Near Taiwan Amid Rising Tensions
The Philippines has significantly escalated its military presence and activities, particularly notable in a recent series of military exercises conducted from Nov. 6–17. These drills, held near the northern tip of Luzon Island, proximate to Taiwan, involved integrated operations of land, sea, and air forces.The exercises, which included amphibious landings and joint live-fire drills, were designed to bolster the Philippines’ joint operational capabilities. On Nov. 15, the media was invited to provide extensive coverage of these exercises.
General Romeo Brawner Jr., the chief of staff of the Philippine armed forces, highlighted plans for larger-scale military exercises. He underscored the involvement of “like-minded partners and allies” in these operations, signaling a broadening of military collaborations.
This exercise marked a departure from past practices, with the Philippines leading the operations instead of playing a secondary role to the United States. The strategic location of these drills, near Taiwan and across the Bashi Channel, holds significant importance in countering any potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Chi Le-Yi, a Taiwanese military commentator, emphasized the strategic significance of the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait as the China’s potential routes to penetrate the first island chain. He noted Japan’s capability to secure the Miyako Strait, leaving the Bashi Channel as the weaker link, which China appears to be targeting for a breakthrough.
The strengthening of military ties and capabilities in the Philippines is crucial in this context. In April, the Philippines granted the United States access to four new military bases, with three positioned near Taiwan. Further, discussions in August about developing a new civilian port in the Bataan Archipelago, merely 200 kilometers from Taiwan, underscore the strategic importance of this location. Filipino experts point out that in a potential “Taiwan incident,” this port could serve essential roles in logistics, evacuation, and defense.
Amid the escalating China-Philippines tensions, Japan has also become increasingly involved. As reported by the Sankei Shimbun, defense officials suggest that a “Philippines incident” is now more likely than a “Taiwan incident,” with the likelihood of U.S. and Japanese involvement in such a scenario being high.
In a show of support and solidarity, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited the Philippines on Nov. 3, offering patrol boats and surveillance radars. His speech in the Philippine Congress, advocating for maritime order and the rule of law, was met with overwhelming approval, marked by 23 rounds of applause during his 30-minute address.
US and Allies Rally to Counter China’s Advances in South China Sea
In the current global context, marked by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict, China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea, particularly against the Philippines, has become more apparent. This development has raised international concerns, particularly as the CCP may view the South China Sea as a strategic opportunity to alter the regional status quo. In this volatile scenario, the U.S. strategy in the South China Sea, while addressing these other global conflicts, has garnered significant attention.Historically, China has capitalized on moments when the United States reduced its military presence in the South China Sea or when a power vacuum emerged in the region. For instance, following the U.S. military withdrawal post-Vietnam War in the late 1970s, the China occupied the Paracel Islands. Similarly, the mid-1980s saw China take control of the Spratly Islands following a decrease in Soviet troops in Vietnam. And after the U.S. military exit from the Philippines in 1992, China established a presence on Mischief Reef.
However, the United States currently maintains a strong and decisive stance in collaborating with its allies to challenge the China’s activities in the South China Sea. Japan, a key U.S. ally, is also actively contributing to this effort.
In April, Japan established the Official Security Assistance (OSA), a new entity dedicated to providing military assistance to allies and partner nations, encompassing resource allocation and infrastructure development. This initiative represents a significant shift from Japan’s traditional Official Development Assistance (ODA), which primarily focused on economic support in areas like economy, education, and health care, with Southeast Asian countries and China being major beneficiaries. Notably, many of China’s early infrastructural projects, such as steel plants and airports, were funded and technically supported through Japan’s ODA.
Unlike the ODA, the OSA specifically targets military aid to friendly nations. Leveraging decades of experience from operating ODA, Japan’s OSA has efficiently supplied ships, radars, and other equipment to countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mongolia within a short span, aiming to counter China’s threats in the region.
The collaborative effort of the United States, Japan, and their allies to contain the China’s military provocations in the South China Sea and East China Sea is now a critical focus. The leaders of the United States and Japan recently convened at the APEC summit. Following an invitation from U.S. President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Kishida is expected to visit the United States by next spring. This visit is anticipated to further solidify the Japan-U.S. alliance and address the international instability resulting from the China’s expansionist policies.
