Percentage of Albertans Wanting to Secede Nearly Matches Quebec’s: Poll

The flags of Alberta and Canada in Kananaskis, Alberta. Shutterstock

One in four Albertans would vote “yes” in a referendum on leaving Canada, just 3 percentage points behind Quebecers’ support for separation, a new poll suggests.

A quarter of Albertans would support separation from Canada, nearly matching the 28 percent of Quebec residents who would favour their province becoming its own country, according to a survey by the Angus Reid institute published on April 6. The desire for separation in both provinces would rise to 30 percent if the Liberals were to form the next government, according to the poll.

Saskatchewan ranks third in support for a potential independence referendum, with 20 percent of residents saying they would vote “yes.” British Columbia is fourth at 9 percent, while Manitoba follows with 8 percent.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic provinces and Ontario show lower support, with 7 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

Alberta also leads in support for joining the United States, with 22 percent of residents saying they would vote “yes” in a referendum on the issue. Saskatchewan follows at 17 percent, and Manitoba at 13 percent.

In both Quebec and British Columbia, 11 percent of residents would support joining the United States, while support in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces is below 10 percent.

Nationally, 15 percent of Canadians support their respective province leaving the country, while 11 percent favour joining the United States. However, the “vast majority” of Canadians would vote no on both issues, according to the poll.

If the Liberals win the federal election, support for an independence referendum would rise in all provinces, the poll suggests. Saskatchewan would see the largest increase, up 10 percentage points to 33 percent. British Columbia would follow with an 8-point rise to 17 percent, while Ontario would see a 7-point increase.

In Alberta and Quebec, a Liberal win would result in a five and two percentage point increase in support for independence, respectively

A Liberal victory would also result in a slight increase in support for joining the United States in all provinces except Quebec, where support would remain unchanged at 11 percent regardless of which party forms the next government.

By political affiliation, as expected, those supporting the separatist Bloc Québécois have the highest support for separation, with 58 percent saying they would vote “yes” in an independence referendum. The Conservatives follow at 22 percent, with support rising to 39 percent if the Liberals win.

National Unity

Last week, Reform Party founder Preston Manning suggested in a commentary that “a vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession.”

“Large numbers of Westerners simply will not stand for another four years of Liberal government, no matter who leads it,” Manning wrote on April 2, saying that one of the reasons for Western separation is Ottawa’s “failure” to address the concerns of Western Canadians.

On the campaign trail, both Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Leader Mark Carney have emphasized the importance of a united Canada in the face of U.S. trade tensions.

When asked about Manning’s comments last week, Poilievre emphasized the need for unity. Carney, for his part, called Manning’s comments “dramatic” and “unhelpful at a time when Canadians are coming together.”

“I am part of a government that governs for all of the country, and very much for the West,” Carney said on April 4, noting that he grew up in Edmonton.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said she isn’t advocating for separation, but is aware of efforts by some to hold referendums. She has said that if the next government does not address Alberta’s concerns, which she outlined last month and include the removal of some of Ottawa’s climate policies, the result could be an “unprecedented national unity crisis.”

When asked at an unrelated April 7 press conference about Manning’s comments, Smith said there is “a lot of unhappiness” among Albertans, and that she’ll wait until after the election to gauge “where Albertans are at that point.” The premier has previously said she would consider setting up a panel to consult Albertans on the province’s next steps.

“I'd be blind if I didn’t see what is occurring in the media, on social media,” Smith said. “I have to acknowledge that there’s a lot of unhappiness on the part of Albertans in the way we’ve been treated by the Liberal government for the past 10 years.”

The province takes issue with many of Ottawa’s policies, such as the Impact Assessment Act and the oil and gas emissions cap, arguing they overstep provincial jurisdiction and hinder the province’s oil and gas industry. Ottawa has maintained it has the authority to address issues of national concern such as climate change.

In one of her latest moves to assert provincial autonomy, Smith recently wrote a letter to Quebec Premier François Legault, suggesting that both provinces work together to “enhance” provincial autonomy and counter “overreach by the federal government.” The government of Quebec has said it’s open to discussing the idea with Smith.

Carney has said he’s committed to making the energy sector more competitive, and that Canada needs more pipelines built “so that we can displace imports of foreign oil.” He has said he'll keep the oil and gas emissions cap and the Impact Assessment Act, but that he would remove redundancies in regulatory reviews.

“We need to do things that had not been imagined or had not been thought possible at a speed we haven’t seen before, and that’s the nature of the time,” Carney said while visiting Edmonton on March 20, saying his government would build energy corridors to boost the sector.