Leaders hoping to visit New Caledonia before the Pacific Islands Forum meeting this week were forced to cancel the trip after they could not agree on terms with the French government.
The delegation was requested by New Caledonia’s President Louis Mapou, who wanted fellow Pacific leaders to be able to assess the aftermath of months of violence in the French territory after a law change in Paris was met with violent protest by the indigenous Kanak population.
The law would have extended voting eligibility to residents living on the island for 10 years. However, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front opposed the move saying it could erode their chances of winning a future independence vote.
Rioting and protests ensued, leading to 10 deaths—eight civilian and two French military—and the burning and looting of more than 800 businesses.
Pacific Islands Forum chair and Cook Islands PM Mark Brown, would only say that “the New Caledonia government has identified a number of issues regarding due process and protocol that must be addressed before a visit.
“In order to allow additional time to resolve the concerns of our fellow Forum Member, the Forum has decided to postpone their mission until after the Forum Leaders meeting in Tonga.”
French Government Accused of Hampering Visit
Although the visit was initially approved by the French government in Paris, there were claims it wanted to impose restrictions on the investigation—something that was denied by the French ambassador to the Pacific, Veronique Roger-Lacan.That didn’t sit well with New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters, who met with New Caledonia’s Mapou at the Forum on Aug. 26.
He said Roger-Lacan needed to “get in contact with her boss”—French President Emmanuel Macron—as her comments suggesting Pacific leaders were not aligned on the focus of their fact-finding mission was “not helpful.”
In a social media post, Peters said the two men had discussed the situation in New Caledonia and the need for “calm dialogue and reconstruction.”
He also referred to “France’s valuable role and cooperation” with New Zealand and in the Pacific.
Concerns Independence Will Lead to CCP Hegemony
However, a new paper from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has warned that if New Caledonia does achieve independence, it risks cementing the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) influence in the region.“The CCP has engaged in a range of foreign interference activities in New Caledonia over many decades, targeting political and economic elites and attempting to utilise the ethnic Chinese diaspora and PRC companies as tools of CCP interests,” said the report’s author, Professor Anne-Marie Brady.
“Local elites have at times actively courted China’s assistance, willingly working with CCP front organisations.”
Her report notes that a CCP document dated as far back as 1987 said, “Once New Caledonia’s national independence movement is taken advantage of by a superpower, changes that are unfavourable to the United States will take place in the strategic balance in the South Pacific.”
A Potential ‘Black Swan’ for the Region
ASPI also warns that, without careful planning, independence for the French colony could turn out to be a “black swan” event—an unpredictable event beyond what is usually expected and that has potentially severe consequences.The report’s writers point to New Caledonia’s location—off the coast of Australia—it’s size, being the fifth-largest nation in the South Pacific and slightly larger than Fiji, and one of the most populous countries in Oceania.
Beijing has concentrated on making New Caledonia economically dependent, as with other Pacific nations.
In 2011, its exports to China were just 6.9 percent. By 2022, that had risen to 62.3 percent, mainly mineral exports.
“China’s foreign interference activities in New Caledonia have been deceptive and clandestine,” the ASPI report claims.
“They have put New Caledonia at risk of economic coercion due to increased economic dependence on the Chinese market, and they’re linked to China’s cross-Pacific efforts, which could reshape security in the Indo-Pacific.
Surrounding Nations At Risk
It goes on to warn that without a strong French military presence in the Pacific, “the Pacific island states and territories could be easy targets for a hostile power, just as they were in 1941.“Australia and New Zealand would have to spend a lot more money defending themselves and the countries of the region, and in a time of conflict, they could be cut off from their military partners, such as the US and Japan.”
The report makes three recommendations to counter Beijing’s influence.
New Caledonia must be an equal partner in all regional security discussions. The French government must talk frankly about CCP foreign interference activities in metropolitan France, and its external territories, and adopt an all-of-government, total-defence approach to the Beijing challenge.
“France and the people of New Caledonia could negotiate to adjust their security relationship to follow the model of other Pacific territories, such as the Cook Islands or Niue, which are both sovereign but supported by New Zealand on foreign affairs and defence,” the report concludes.
“Or establish a compact arrangement such as that between the U.S. and the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and Palau. Whatever the outcome, France and New Caledonia must find a way to manage the risks and opportunities of engaging with China.”
