Ottawa has released its estimate of the carbon tax’s impact on the Canadian economy following Conservative allegations the government had prevented the Parliamentary Budget Officer from speaking on the data.
The data was created in May by Environment Canada for the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) and models GDP and emissions based on raw economic and climate data.
The data also said that Canada’s emissions would be roughly 11 percent higher by 2030 without carbon pricing and that 80 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions will be eliminated by carbon pricing by that time.
The estimates were released as the Conservative Party plans to introduce a motion in the House of Commons calling for Ottawa to release its “full data” on the carbon tax’s economic impact. The Tories have accused the Liberal government of withholding the analysis, alleging it would prove Canadians are worse off under the carbon tax.
“We’ve seen that [report], staff in my office, but we’ve been told explicitly not to disclose it and reference it,” he said.
The week before, the PBO had been criticized by the Liberals for an error the office made when analyzing carbon pricing. Instead of only using consumer carbon pricing, the PBO had also included the output-based pricing system (OBPS) applicable to the industrial price for large emitters. Ottawa said this had skewed the results and overestimated the impacts of the carbon tax on households.
The federal carbon tax has become a politically charged issue in Canada, with the Tories vowing to “axe the tax” if they form a government. The Tories have argued that the carbon tax has contributed to increases in the cost of food, fuel, and home heating at a time when Canadians are struggling with the cost of living.
The Liberal government has countered that federal carbon pricing is the most efficient way to reduce carbon emissions, and that eight out of 10 Canadians receive more back in carbon rebates than they pay through the tax.
