One-Third of Canadian Workers’ Tasks ‘Could Be Replaceable by AI in the Future’: StatCan

Signage outside the Statistics Canada offices in Ottawa, in a file photo. The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick

Nearly one-third of Canadian workers face potential job replacement by artificial intelligence, with highly educated individuals particularly vulnerable to disruptions, a Statistics Canada report shows.

The report categorizes Canadian workers into three groups based on their job exposure to AI and the potential for their tasks to be replaced or complemented by the technology.

“High-exposure, low-complementarity occupations are those that may be highly exposed to AI-related job transformation,” the agency said.

The study found that in May 2021, around 4.2 million employees, or 31 percent of Canadian workers, were in the high-exposure, low-complementarity category with tasks that “could be replaceable by AI in the future.”

Meanwhile, 29 percent were in jobs highly exposed to, yet highly complementary with, AI. The remaining 40 percent were in positions less exposed to the technology.

The report suggests that AI may transform the jobs of highly educated workers more than those of their less educated counterparts, which is different from past technological changes that mostly impacted less educated workers.

Specifically, 37 percent of employees with a bachelor’s degree and 36 percent with a college diploma are in jobs that could be replaced by AI, compared to 25 percent of those with a high school diploma or less and 15 percent with a trade certificate.

Occupations with low exposure to AI, such as carpenters, welders, plumbers, and food servers, typically require less education and are less likely to be transformed by AI. However, StatCan noted that the spread of AI could lead to broader effects, such as highly educated workers from high-exposure jobs moving into low-exposure roles, potentially displacing less educated employees.

The report looked at how AI tools, like ChatGPT from OpenAI, are affecting the job market, especially with the rise in remote work due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It notes that remote jobs are often held by highly educated workers, who may face more AI-related changes than those with less education.

The report found that more than half (51 percent) of remote workers are in jobs that could be replaced by AI, compared to 14 percent of non-remote workers. However, it noted that 47 percent of remote workers also have roles that are highly complementary with AI, while only 14 percent of non-remote workers have such opportunities.

StatCan added that employers may not immediately replace human labour with AI due to financial, legal, and institutional constraints.

The potential impact of AI on the labour market extends beyond Canada. A January report by the International Monetary Fund suggests that nearly 40 percent of global employment may be affected by AI, with the impact being particularly acute in advanced economies, where about 60 percent of jobs may be affected. The report also warns that, unlike previous waves of automation and information technology that mostly affected routine tasks, AI is increasingly impacting high-skilled jobs.