NZ COVID Inquiry Questions Vaccine Mandates

Police stand guard as protesters against COVID-19 vaccine mandates and restrictions gather near parliament grounds in Wellington, New Zealand, on March 2, 2022. Dave Lintott/AFP via Getty Images

The first stage of New Zealand’s Royal Commission of Inquiry into the COVID-19 response is complete, but the findings remain under wraps. The report is due to be handed to the government on Nov. 28.

Brooke van Velden, Internal Affairs Minister, and ACT Party Deputy Leader, has refused to release it until the second stage is complete, which may not happen until early 2026.

However, outgoing Commission’s chairperson Professor Tony Blakely—an epidemiologist and public health specialist—has revealed a key finding: vaccine mandates caused “significant disadvantage and distress” to a “substantial minority” and must be more carefully weighed against potential harms in future pandemics.

The Ardern Labour government introduced mandates in October 2021, requiring health and education workers to be fully vaccinated—then defined as three doses—by Jan. 1, 2022.

Police and Defence Force workers were also subject to mandates, though these were struck down in court.

Justice Cooke found no evidence vaccination significantly reduced the risk of transmission of the Omicron variant, and therefore, the relatively small number of unvaccinated individuals would make no difference to the risk of widespread transmission throughout the services.

He also noted that the government had not considered alternatives such as redeployment or suspension of employees who wished to remain unvaccinated.

Instead, termination of employment was the only option provided—an approach Cooke described as disproportionate.

Mandates’ Economic and Social Impact

Earlier this year, a study (pdf) by the Auckland University of Technology highlighted the mandates’ long-term effects on unvaccinated health workers.

It found that their employment rate fell by 15 percent and their earnings fell by 19 percent compared with vaccinated colleagues.

“The mandates had limited effect on increasing vaccine uptake. But they had a substantive negative effect on the employment, earnings, and wellbeing of unvaccinated health workers,” the researchers said.

“Even after the health worker mandates were lifted in September 2022, the employment and earnings of unvaccinated workers never fully recovered.”

The study also found that mandates exacerbated existing health worker shortages and provoked more resistance.

“This erosion of trust could potentially strengthen anti-vaccination sentiment generally and reduce uptake, not just of COVID-19 vaccinations, but also other vaccines,” the authors warned.

“This outcome is especially concerning given research has found New Zealand’s routine childhood immunisation rates have decreased since the pandemic.”

Despite these issues, a poll in 2021 showed that 74 percent of New Zealanders supported the mandates for teachers, healthcare workers, and other high-risk groups, while 20 percent were opposed, and six percent were undecided.

While acknowledging the strong public support for mandates, Blakely says the inquiry found it had damaged social cohesion.

“When you’re doing those types of mandatory things, like mandatory vaccination, they really need to be in a context where the benefits far outweigh the harms,” he said.

The Commission concluded that mandates were justified for frontline healthcare workers, border officials, and high-risk places such as prisons.

However, Blakely warned that broader use must be approached with caution.

“The unintended consequences for the minority are major and should be considered. In the future, we only want to be reaching for mandatory things where it’s proportionate.”

Blakely added that the major themes in the Inquiry’s findings were that people were “more than their health status” and that social and economic considerations were also important.

Calls to Release the Report

Blakely said there was no reason the report could not be released immediately.

“It’s entirely feasible that the minister can release it,” he said. “Let’s get it out there.”

The first stage of the Royal Commission spanned two years, gathering 13,000 submissions, 1,600 in-person testimonies, and 133,000 pages of evidence.

The second stage—a condition of the coalition agreement—begins tomorrow and will focus on contentious issues such as vaccine mandates, approval processes, safety, lockdowns, and procurement.

One of the three first-stage Commissioners, litigation specialist Grant Illingworth KC will lead the next phase.

He will be joined by public policy expert and economist Judy Kavanagh and Anthony Hill, a barrister who was New Zealand’s Health and Disability Commissioner for 10 years.