Number of People out of Work Owing to Long-Term Illness on the Rise

Economists have warned that long-term sickness and economic inactivity are major challenges facing the government.
Number of People out of Work Owing to Long-Term Illness on the Rise
A general view of staff on a NHS hospital ward at Ealing Hospital in London, on Jan. 18, 2023. Jeff Moore/PA Media
Evgenia Filimianova
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The number of people out of work owing to long-term illness has surged across the country, marking a record hike, official data have revealed.

From December 2023 to February 2024 there were 2.829 million long-term sick people in the UK, the Office of National Statistics has reported.

An increase of 16,000 people, compared to the preceding quarter, was a record high in the data series on economic inactivity due to long-term illness.

The economic inactivity rate, which is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 who are not in the labour force, has increased in the latest quarter and was also 22.2 percent above estimates of a year ago, the ONS said.

The rate was driven by those inactive because of a long-term illness and because they were students. People aged 16 to 34 years drove the increase over both the latest quarter and in the last year.

The number of people out of the workforce due to long-term health issues has been gradually increasing since the pandemic years, reaching peaks in 2022 and 2023. The latest figures show that the rate remains above pre-pandemic rates.

“The only silver lining is that among those still in work, regular real wages grew in the three months to February by a healthy 2.1 percent,” the Resolution Foundation think tank said on Wednesday.

Wider Issues

An economist at the Resolution Foundation, Charlie McCurdy, said that rising inactivity and long-term sickness suggest wider issues with the health of the UK workforce.

“Tackling rising inactivity—and its impact on the public finances, the benefits system, and people’s wider health and wellbeing—is one of the biggest economic challenges facing both this government, and whoever wins the next election,” said Mr. McCurdy.

Two years ago, the government pledged to increase life expectancy by five years by 2035, as part of its levelling up agenda. Ministers had also committed to narrowing the gap in life expectancy between areas where it is highest and lowest.

However, the Health Foundation has argued that inequalities in health will persist over the next two decades. A report on patterns of inequalities in diagnosed illness by socioeconomic deprivation across England has named a number of conditions driving health deterioration.

This includes chronic pain, type 2 diabetes and anxiety and depression, which are projected to increase at a faster rate in the 10 percent most deprived areas by 2040.

The poorest areas will also account for 80 percent of the increase in the number of working-age people living with major illnesses between 2019 and 2040, said the Health Foundation.

“Moreover, healthy life expectancy has decreased for men of all ages, with over half a year reduction for those under 50 years of age. This demonstrates that not only is healthy life expectancy reducing across the country, but that this is happening unequally across geographies, sexes, and age groups,” said Health Foundation senior analyst Kathryn Marszalek.

The overall reduction in health expectancy at birth is likely driven by the impact of the pandemic, but follows a decade during which improvements have flatlined, the think tank said.

It urged Westminster to “prioritise good health,” which the think tanks said is shaped by secure jobs, adequate incomes, decent housing and high-quality education.

Last year, the government added mental health to the Major Conditions Strategy alongside diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases.

Mental health has been named one of the reasons driving 18-24-year-olds out of work. In February, the Resolution Foundation reported that in the period between 2018 and 2022, one in five young people were unemployed due to mental health issues.

The think tank noted that the focus on young people’s mental health problems often centres around universities.

“The economic consequences of poor mental health are starkest for young people who don’t go to university, with one-in-three young non-graduates with a common mental disorder currently workless,” said senior economist Louise Murphy.

Evgenia Filimianova
Evgenia Filimianova
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Evgenia Filimianova is a UK-based journalist covering a wide range of national stories, with a particular interest in UK politics, parliamentary proceedings and socioeconomic issues.