Number of Nuclear-Powered Submarines in Western Pacific to Double Under AUKUS

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L), US President Joe Biden (C) and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (R) hold a press conference after a trilateral meeting during the AUKUS summit in San Diego, California on March 13, 2023. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

The AUKUS alliance will result in double the amount of readily deployable nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) in the Western Pacific by mid-2030, says the Lowy Institute.

AUKUS is a trilateral partnership between Australia, the United States, and the UK, and formalises several technological and military collaborations.

However, its most notable feature is the decision to arm Australia with nuclear-powered submarines to counteract Beijing’s growing influence in the region.

“Dominance of the maritime domain promises a level of conventional deterrence that is difficult to obtain by other means. It should contribute substantially to preserving peace in the Indo-Pacific for at least a generation,” wrote Ross Babbage, CEO of Strategic Forum, for the Lowy Institute.

“Moreover, from the mid-2030s, AUKUS should double the number of forward-deployed SSNs in the Western Pacific in the initial 10 days of a major crisis.”

Last October, the Australian government spoke with the U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson during a visit by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, hoping to garner support from the U.S. Capitol to pass AUKUS legislation.

Once passed into law, the United States is expected to sell its Virginia-class nuclear submarine to Australia, upping its capabilities to ensure an open Indo-Pacific region.

“The AUKUS program is certain to face further bumps on the road. But with rapid progress being made, momentum is building and confidence and determination are on the rise,” Babbage said in his report, “Deterrence and alliance power: Why the AUKUS submarines matter and how they can be delivered.”

However, critics noted the potentially negative implications of AUKUS, particularly relating to the nonproliferation treaty.

“Much of the rest of the world will see a double standard in encouraging Australia to exploit the naval propulsion loophole while trying to punish a U.S. adversary for doing the same,” said James M. Acton, Jessica T. Mathews chair and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“It will, therefore, resist strong international enforcement actions and oppose the United States’ own unilateral efforts. The result is that the AUKUS deal is likely to weaken the deterrence value of safeguards and make proliferation more likely.”

Similarly, James Carouso, Senior Advisor and Chairman of the Advisory Board to the Australian Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), warned about the danger of Australia conducting a procurement activity for a technology it does not have experience with.

“This is the largest single defense procurement in Australia’s history for a technology Australia has no experience with, and it bears a development and delivery timeline that stretches out decades,” said Carouso.

Despite these viewpoints, Babbage said that these observations may be grounded on ill-informed and outdated assumptions.

“Serious doubts about AUKUS have been expressed in Australia, the United States, and Britain. Some have been ill-informed and several have been driven by outdated assumptions. But other concerns are real, and mostly being addressed by remedial action,” Babbage said.