Not Enough Low Emission Vans on Sale Ahead of London ULEZ Expansion: Analysis

A sign at the expanded boundary of London’s ULEZ pollution charge zone for older vehicles on Oct. 25, 2021. Yui Mok/PA

There may not be enough vans for sale if all tradespeople who travel into London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expansion area want to upgrade their older vehicles to comply with the emissions limit, an analysis suggests.

Figures from Auto Trader—which says it is used by around 80 percent of UK vehicle retailers—show there are just 5,181 vans for sale across London and southeast England on its online marketplace.

Its total for the whole of the UK is 23,803.

But a report (pdf) commissioned by Transport for London (TfL) last year estimated that 30,000 non-compliant vans currently enter the ULEZ expansion area each day from outside Greater London.

The ULEZ is an area in which vehicles that do not meet certain emissions standards must pay a daily charge of £12.50 to drive or face fines.

The scheme currently covers the areas within London’s North and South Circular roads. It is set to expand to the whole of Greater London from Aug. 29, 2023 under plans from Mayor Sadiq Khan.

To avoid the ULEZ fee, diesel vehicles—which make up the vast majority of vans—must be Euro 6 standard, which generally covers those registered from 2016.

A delivery van driver or tradesperson entering the zone in an older van every working day will rack up more than £3,100 a year in charges.

Drivers who fail to pay face a £160 penalty each day, which is halved if paid within a fortnight.

The average price of a diesel van which meets the emissions standards is £23,972 on Auto Trader.

That is £6,500 more than for a non-compliant van.

‘A Real Worry’

An Auto Trader spokesman said the ULEZ expansion will be “a real worry for thousands of van drivers already struggling to cope with high inflation.”

“The number of ULEZ compliant vans for sale in London and the southeast is just a fraction of the estimated 30,000 vans affected, leaving the majority facing the prospect of paying thousands of pounds extra to get to work,” he said.

According to the TfL-commissioned report, assuming no trades people will stop serving the ULEZ expansion area and two-thirds of them will upgrade their vehicles at an average net cost of £13,300 per vehicle, the total cost for businesses with non-compliant LGVs between 2023 to 2030 would amount to £359 million—£96 million borne by businesses outside Greater London and £263 million by businesses within the ULEZ expansion area.

The report also said that stakeholder feedback suggested that some businesses and tradespeople with non-compliant vehicles had stopped serving customers within the existing ULEZ area because the extra cost had made them uncompetitive.

A spokesman for Khan defended the mayor’s decision to expand ULEZ.

“The mayor has been clear that the decision to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone London-wide was one of the hardest he’s had to make, but with around 4,000 Londoners still dying from toxic air it was a necessary one,” he said.

“Eighty-five percent of vehicles in outer London are already ULEZ compliant,” the spokesman said.

“For those that aren’t, the mayor has announced the biggest scrappage scheme yet—£110 million—to help micro businesses and Londoners who need it most amid the cost of living crisis, including low income and disabled Londoners.”

Undated file photo of Mayor of London Sadiq Khan reopening the Bank branch of the Northern line at Monument Station in London. Aaron Chown/PA

According to figures published in July 2022, one-third of all applicants of the existing scrappage grant scheme received financial help. When breaking down the figures by vehicle type, a quarter of van and minibus drivers, 40 percent of car and motorcycle drivers, and 29 percent of heavy vehicle drivers were successful in their applications.

The analysis came as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak urged Khan to reconsider after the mayor’s office was accused of manipulating the result of the public consultation on the ULEZ expansion. Khan’s office denied the allegations.

Greater London Authority (GLA) Conservatives last week published documents suggesting mid-consultation media campaigns boosted perceived support for the scheme and that thousands of emails opposing the expansion were excluded from a key part of the consultation over technicality reasons.

Khan’s spokesperson said “any suggestion that TfL or the mayor has sought to influence the results of the ULEZ consultation is simply untrue.”

Councils Resist ULEZ

London’s Conservative-run suburban councils have also been ganging up to resist the expansion.

According to a study by Imperial College last year, the ULEZ had caused “only small improvements in air quality.”

In a joint statement published on Jan. 13, the London boroughs of Hillingdon, Bexley, Bromley, and Harrow said they are “not satisfied with the justification for the expansion and remain strongly opposed to it.”

“Until we have seen compelling evidence to the contrary, it remains our position that this scheme will not translate successfully to outer London and the negative impact to local households and economies will far outweigh the negligible air quality benefits,” the statement reads.

Bromley council leader Colin Smith told the Evening Standard last week that the coalition councils were to examine whether the ULEZ expansion is legal and were considering writing to Khan’s office “seeking further information to demonstrate the lawfulness of the decision.”

Sutton and Harrow council leaders have also said they won’t sign agreements with TfL to install the extra cameras needed for enforcing the rule.

Expanding the scheme to the suburbs requires installing 2,750 enforcement cameras that read number plates to check non-compliant vehicles.

Sutton and Harrow councils this week confirmed they will refuse to sign the “section 8” agreements to allow TfL to install the cameras on roads under council control, which could delay the rollout.

PA Media contributed to this report.