Next Steps for the Liberal Party as It Prepares for Post-Trudeau Era

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivers an address at the Laurier Club Holiday Event, an appreciation event for supporters of the Liberal Party of Canada, in Gatineau, Que., on Dec. 15, 2022. The Canadian Press/Justin Tang

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Jan. 6 announcement about his future cleared some of the speculation around Canadian politics for the next few months, but some key questions remain related to the process of selecting his replacement.

It wasn’t clear before this week whether Trudeau would resign immediately or stay on, or if he would prorogue Parliament.

Trudeau said in his announcement that he intends to resign as prime minister and party leader after the Liberals select a new leader through a “robust, nationwide competitive process.”

In the meantime, at Trudeau’s request Gov. Gen. Mary Simon has prorogued Parliament, which shields the government from being toppled by opposition parties and provides a window for the Liberal Party to run a leadership race.

Details about the leadership race have yet to be fleshed out. Liberal Party president Sachit Mehra said in a Jan. 6 statement that he would be holding a meeting of the national board of directors this week to begin the “nation-wide democratic process of selecting a new leader of the Party.”

Typically such a meeting, organized when the leader announces his intention to resign, must be held within 27 days, according to the Liberal Party’s constitution.

During that meeting, party rules say directors must appoint an interim leader in consultation with the caucus. In the current case., Trudeau chose to remain as leader.

The national board of directors also has to decide on a date for the leadership vote. It will be a challenge for the party to run a leadership race within the 11 weeks before the new parliamentary session begins on March 24.

Confidence votes will take place almost immediately when the House of Commons reconvenes. At that point, if opposition parties stick to their pledge to vote non-confidence, the minority Liberal government could be toppled, triggering an early election.

The latest Liberal leadership race, in 2013, which was won by Trudeau, lasted five months and occurred under very different circumstances: The date had been set 10 months in advance and contenders started campaigning before the official launch.

Liberal party directors also have to establish committees to govern how the contest will unfold. One committee will decide how much contestants are able to spend on their campaigns. Another will be in charge of planning, organizing, and carrying out the vote.

Contenders are currently evaluating whether they will join the race. So far, the only person to publicly state his intention to run is businessman and former Liberal MP Frank Baylis.

Potential contenders within the Liberal cabinet include Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, and Transport Minister Anita Anand.

Outside cabinet, former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland is seen as a potential contender. Outside Parliament, former central banker Mark Carney and former B.C. premier Christy Clark are also seen as possible candidates.

Leadership contestants must be registered Liberals and eligible to run for a House of Commons seat. They must also provide to the party president a written nomination signed by at least 300 party members at least 90 days before the vote, including at least 100 members from three different provinces or territories.