“A possibility of more storms than normal as we go into the peak of the hurricane season also increases the possibility that one of those storms will make it up to our neck of the woods in Eastern Canada,” Fogarty said in an interview Friday.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that rising ocean temperatures and the slow arrival of the calming effects of El Nino have doubled the chances of an above-normal hurricane season.
“If we get any storms moving up into our region, they may maintain their intensity longer than they would normally due to the warmer ocean temperatures,” Fogarty said.
The 2023 hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
U.S. forecasters say there could be 14 to 21 named storms — an increase from the 12 to 17 predicted in May — and they say between six and 11 of them will become hurricanes. Seven hurricanes is considered normal.
Fogarty says the U.S. estimate is a statistical outlook, and forecasters can’t offer specific information on the nature of storms until they develop.
“Over the next week as we approach mid-August there’s really nothing going on in the Atlantic, but all we need is for storms to form over those warm waters and they’ll probably accelerate pretty quickly, given the conditions,” Fogarty said.
Last September, hurricane Fiona blew through much of Atlantic Canada claiming three lives, destroying homes and causing widespread power outages. It was the seventh costliest extreme weather event in Canada’s history and the most costly in Atlantic Canada, with the Insurance Bureau of Canada estimating more than $800 million in insured damages.