Netherlands’ Rightward Shift Likely to Impact Western Aid to Ukraine

Workers prepare to remove an election sign of Party for Freedom (PVV) leader Geert Wilders near the Binnenhof, a day after the Netherlands general elections, in the Hague on Nov. 23, 2023. Robin Utrecht/ANP/AFP via Getty Images

European assistance to Ukraine will likely be dealt another blow following the electoral victory of Geert Wilders’s right-wing Freedom Party (PVV).

The PVV defied expectations by taking first place in a Nov. 22 parliamentary poll, winning 37 of 150 seats in the Dutch national assembly.

The incumbent People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), led by outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, managed to clinch only 24 seats.

Unlike Mr. Rutte’s VVD, Mr. Wilders’s party is vehemently opposed to a number of longstanding EU policies, especially those pertaining to immigration.

It has also voiced opposition to admitting Ukraine, Moldova, and some Balkan states into the EU.

Perhaps most contentiously, Mr. Wilders’s PVV also wants to vastly reduce Dutch assistance to Ukraine, both financial and military.

In previous comments, Mr. Wilders has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is about to enter its 22nd month, and has blamed Moscow for starting the war.

But he has also said that the Netherlands, a longstanding NATO member, needs the military equipment that it gives to Ukraine in order to defend itself.

Kajsa Ollongren, the country’s current defense minister, has voiced hope that Dutch support for Kyiv will continue–even under a PVV-led government.

Officials in Kyiv and Moscow have yet to issue statements regarding Mr. Wilders’s electoral win.

Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch Freedom Party, celebrates in his party office after the victory on Nov. 22, 2023. Carl Court/Getty Images

Coalition Talks Underway

Mr. Wilders and his party are now in the process of forging a ruling coalition with other Dutch political parties.

As it currently stands, Mr. Rutte’s VVD and the centrist New Social Contract party are considered the likeliest candidates to join a PVV-led coalition.

Both parties, however, remain firmly committed to continued support for Ukraine, meaning some kind of compromise will have to be struck.

The Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), a smaller right-leaning party, has also voiced willingness to enter a coalition led by Mr. Wilders’s PVV.

BBB leader Caroline van der Plas has said she expects the PVV to moderate its more hardline positions with a view to winning over potential partners.

Mr. Wilders “has promised to be milder,” she told reporters on Nov. 23.

Until a viable coalition is drawn up, Mr. Rutte will remain at his post as caretaker.

Under Mr. Rutte’s administration, Amsterdam provided Ukraine with more than 7 billion euros (about $7.6 billion) in assistance, both financial and military.

Along with a handful of other NATO members, it also pledged to provide Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets.

Only five days before the election, Amsterdam unveiled a fresh military aid package for Ukraine worth 2 billion euros ($3.28 billion).

At the time, Ms. Ollongren said the aid was intended to signal her country’s continued support for Ukraine’s ongoing fight against Russia.

“This will safeguard our support for Kyiv and ensure continuity, which is critical for Ukraine,” she said.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban looks on during the EU-Western Balkans leaders' meeting in Brussels on June 23, 2022. Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

Joining Hungary, Slovakia

The PVV’s election win may bring Dutch foreign policy closer to that of Hungary—one of only two other EU and NATO members to oppose unqualified support for Ukraine.

In a social media post, Viktor Orban, Hungary’s nationalist leader, congratulated Mr. Wilders on his victory, declaring, “The winds of change are here!”

In a related development, Slovakia’s new government told NATO earlier this month that it would no longer provide arms and munitions to Ukraine.

According to Bratislava, the move is meant to allow Slovakia—a NATO member since 2004—to “strengthen the capacities of its [own] armed forces.”

In late September, Slovakia’s left-leaning SMER-SSD party, led by Prime Minister Robert Fico, came in first in parliamentary polls, winning 23 percent of the vote.

As he is an outspoken critic of unlimited support for Kyiv, Mr. Fico’s electoral campaign had featured the slogan: “Not one more bullet” for Ukraine.

Last month, Mr. Orban and Mr. Fico both attended a European summit in Brussels, which was held to convey the EU’s continued support for Ukraine.

At the summit, the Hungarian and Slovak leaders were alone in opposing proposals for a fresh $53 billion EU aid package for Kyiv.

If Mr. Wilders assumes the Dutch premiership, he is also likely to try to block additional EU funding for Ukraine’s war effort.

Reuters contributed to this report.