Nearly Half of Canadians Want Early Federal Election: New Poll

A Canadian voter casts a ballot in a file photo. Chris Young/The Canadian Press

Half of Canadians expressed a preference for holding the next federal election either immediately or sometime in 2024, rather than waiting until 2025, according to a Nanos Research poll commissioned by CTV News and published on Jan. 3.

The survey, involving 1,069 Canadians, targeted various demographics, with a notable distinction between men and women and across age groups.

According to the poll, nearly half (46 percent) of Canadians express a desire for the next federal election to take place sooner rather than later, with 29 percent wanting it as soon as possible and an additional 17 percent preferring it to occur in 2024.

By contrast, one-third (33 percent) prefer to wait until 2025, 17 percent have no preference, and a small portion (4 percent) are unsure.

The preference for an immediate election is notably higher among men (36 percent) compared to women (23 percent).

There is also a clear age divide among age groups, with older Canadians aged 55 and older more likely to prefer waiting until 2025 (41 percent) compared to the younger age groups, with ages 18-34 at 26 percent and the 35-54 age group at 28 percent.

Regional differences also exist, with residents of the Prairies showing the highest preference for an immediate election (41 percent) compared to other regions.

The poll did not report on the desire for early elections compared to political voting intentions.

Conservatives have gained and maintained a sizeable lead over the Liberals in polls of recent months. The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking shows the Conservatives leading at 40.3 percent, followed by Liberals (26.6 percent), NDP (18.1 percent), Bloc Quebecois (7.3 percent), Green Party (4.8 percent), and People’s Party (1.9 percent).

According to the Nanos poll, Pierre Poilievre leads as the preferred prime minister choice at 33.0 percent, followed by Justin Trudeau (21.4 percent), and Jagmeet Singh (15.2 percent).

Cost of Living Concerns

Other polling conducted by Nanos sheds light on Canadians’ concerns involving the cost of living, mortgage payments, and immigration.

A survey involving 1,006 Canadians aged 18 and older, said that 35.4 percent of respondents view the rising cost of living as the top priority for the House of Commons in 2024.

This sentiment was the most prevalent among respondents from Atlantic Canada (47.2 percent) and least in British Columbia (32.8 percent).

By demographic, women (38.1 percent) and individuals aged 18-34 (44.5 percent) and 35-54 (41 percent) showed a higher concern for the cost of living compared to their counterparts.

A mid-December Nanos survey showed that around 66 percent of Canadians, slightly down from previous figures, feel that the upcoming generation will experience a decline in living standards compared to their own.

This sentiment is most prevalent among middle-aged individuals (35 to 54 years), with 71 percent expressing this belief, compared to 66 percent of those over 55 and 62 percent of the younger demographic (18 to 34 years).

Nanos also asked respondents about mortgages, finding that 52 percent of holders are either concerned (24 percent) or somewhat concerned (28 percent) about their ability to make payments upon mortgage renewal.

Younger Canadians aged 18-34 are notably more uneasy, with 62.4 percent expressing concern or some concern, compared to 36.2 percent of those 55 and older. Women also show higher levels of concern (59.5 percent) compared to men (42.7 percent).

Immigration

Canadians in recent years have been confronted with record home prices, which have been followed by higher interest rates as the central bank seeks to cool inflation. The rise in mortgage rates and higher immigration have also pushed rent prices to record levels.

Meanwhile, the Nanos poll suggests a shift in opinion regarding immigration targets. A majority (61 percent) now express a desire for Canada to accept fewer immigrants in 2024 compared to the previous year, marking an 8-percentage point increase from September 2023.

Conversely, only 5 percent want to see an increase in immigration, a decrease from the 17 percent recorded in 2020, and 26 percent of respondents suggest maintaining the current level of immigration.

The reasons cited for preferring fewer immigrants include concerns about housing, infrastructure, and the ability to provide adequate social services, alongside a desire for the government to prioritize helping current Canadians first.

The Canadian government seeks to welcome 485,000 new permanent residents in 2024, an additional 500,000 in 2025, and 500,000 in 2026.

Information on population growth released by Statistics Canada on Dec. 19 shows the country added 430,635 people in the third quarter of 2023, the fastest quarterly growth seen since 1957.