Nearly Half of Canadians Want an Early Election: Survey

A person holds an Elections Canada voter information card after receiving it in the mail on Aug. 31, 2021. Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

Nearly 50 percent of Canadians would support calling a federal election before next fall, a new national survey suggests.

Thirty-two percent of Canadians are ready to head to the ballot box as soon as possible while 16 percent would prefer an election to happen sooner than October 2025 but not before the end of this year, according to a newly-released Abacus Data poll.

Only 30 percent of Canadians polled don’t want an election to happen until its scheduled date in October 2025, while the remaining 22 percent have no preference.

“Not surprisingly, Conservative supporters are most likely to want an election as soon as possible while Liberal supporters are most likely to want an election in October 2025,” Abacus CEO David Coletto said in a blog post, noting that NDP supporters are more evenly split.

Among NDP supporters, 37 percent want an early election while 39 percent want to wait until October 2025.

The poll results were collected between Sept. 19 and Sept. 25, the final day coinciding with the Tories’ failed non-confidence motion in the House of Commons.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced Sept. 19 his party would not support the Conservative motion to topple the minority Liberal government. Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet made his announcement the day prior. He also announced Sept. 25 the Liberals must pass two Bloc private member’s bills before Oct. 29 or the party would begin talks with other parties to bring down the government.

The Tories have since introduced a new non-confidence motion and at least one more motion is expected before Christmas if the current motion fails.

Voting Demographics

If the election were to be called today, the Pierre Poilievre-led Tories would be likely to win a majority government, holding 43 percent of the current vote share, according to the poll. The Conservatives have a 22-point lead over the Liberals’ 21 percent vote share.

The Liberals dropped 1 percent since August, while the NDP gained one percentage point to sit at 19 percent. The NDP’s one percent boost comes three weeks after it ended its supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals.

The Conservatives continue to be popular in Western Canada, with a substantial lead in all provinces.

In Alberta, the party averages a 62 percent share of the vote compared to the NDP at 25 percent and the Liberals at just 7 percent. More than half—56 percent—of those polled in Saskatchewan and Manitoba said they would vote for the Tories while 24 percent would vote NDP and 13 percent would cast their ballot for the Liberals. The Conservatives have a 48 percent vote share in B.C., compared to 27 percent for the NDP, and 15 percent for the Liberals.

In Ontario, 46 percent of those surveyed said they would vote Conservative while 22 percent indicated they would vote Liberal and 20 percent would vote NDP. Support was also high in Atlantic Canada for the Conservatives at 47 percent, compared to 32 percent for the Liberals and 17 percent for the New Democrats.

The Liberals are ahead of the Tories in Quebec at 28 percent versus 22 percent while the Bloc Quebecois has 37 percent support.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both genders.

The Conservative vote share “is fairly consistent across all age groups,” ranging from 42 percent to 47 percent “while the Liberals have more support among those aged 60+ than those under 60,” Coletto said.

“For the last four waves of tracking, there is a slight gender gap in Conservative support,” he said, adding that 49 percent of men would vote Conservative compared with 38 percent of women.

“Liberal support is consistent between men and women while NDP support is 4-points higher among women than among men.”

Approval Ratings

Despite low voter intention, the federal government’s approval rating has improved slightly.

Twenty-five percent of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government, up one point, while disapproval is down three points to 59 percent, the survey found.

Canadians’ view of Trudeau has remained fairly consistent over the past few surveys, Coletto said.

Sixty percent of those polled have a negative impression of the prime minister while 22 percent have a positive view, for a net score of -38.

Negative impressions of Singh also continue to trend upward reaching 39 percent—an all-time high for the NDP leader in Abacus tracking. His positive impressions were also up two points to 31 percent for a net score of -8.

Poilievre was the only party leader to garner an overall positive impression. His positives were steady at 39 percent, while his negatives went up two to 37 percent, giving him a net score of +2.

Forty-seven percent of Canadians continue to believe the Conservative Party would win the next federal election, a figure that has remained steady since July, the survey found. Only 17 percent said they think the Liberals would win, down two points, while 11 percent said the NDP would win, up two.

One in four Canadians remain unsure about the outcome of the next election.