Blackouts are less likely this winter as Britain’s electricity distributor said it’s cautiously optimistic there will be enough power in the coming months.
The National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) said the improvement has been driven by increased power generation, more battery storage, and the demand-side response since last winter.
With the risks still remaining, the ESO has announced it will reintroduce its Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) scheme, which offers discounts for those who use less electricity during peak times when prompted.
Meanwhile, the National Gas, which is also expecting to meet the demand this winter, is examining a similar scheme.
In a forecast report published on Wednesday that covers the period between Oct. 30, 2023, and March 30, 2024, the ESO said it expects to have 4.4 Gigawatts (GW), or 7.4 percent of surplus electricity in normal circumstances, slightly higher than 3.7 GW last year.
It’s estimated that the demand for electricity will surge above the amount of supply for about six minutes this year in a base case scenario, meaning the ESO may have to resort to special measures to keep the grid running smoothly during the time.
It’s down from 12 minutes last winter and within the government limit set at three hours per year.
“It’s not benign, but compared to last year it is almost going back to around where it was before last winter,” said Craig Dyke, the ESO’s head of national control. [quote from PA]
“So the risks that we talked about last year, the probability of them occurring, are much, much lower.”
According to the report, the generation capacity has expanded this year because of small increases from newly installed wind turbines, an additional Coal unit, and more capacity from Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) units.
Four of the five contingency coal generation units that the ESO contracted last year is no longer available this year.
The ESO also said the situation in Europe has also improved, with greater availability of both European gas storage and French nuclear power.
The ESO will continue to pay electricity users for saving energy using its DFS scheme that was introduced last year.
Those who opt-in will get notified when they can get discounts for using less power during peak time.
According to the operator, the scheme has saved over 3,300 megawatt hours across 22 events last winter.
The ESO plans to run 12 test events this winter alongside another five that will potentially be needed to balance the network.
A government spokesperson said: “These outlooks show we are in an even stronger position going into this winter than last, thanks to the efforts we have made to boost our energy security, with our system operators expecting there to be sufficient gas supply and electricity capacity to meet demand.
National Gas To Trial DFS-like Scheme
Meanwhile, National Gas also published its forecast on Wednesday, saying there’s sufficient capability to meet peak demand this winter.The report said it expects residential demand for gas will increase, but the increase will be offset by the reduced demand for electricity generation following a surge last year.
The demand for gas power last year increased because of export needs after “a number of extended outages to French nuclear power.
Nation Gas said the scale of the outages is expected to be smaller this year, and increased renewable generation further reduced the demand for gas.
Overall, Great Britain is forecast to demand a similar amount of gas compared to last year, while the total demand is set to decrease because of the reduced need for exports.
Britain will be likely to need gas imported from the European Union during cold spells to keep heating homes. Otherwise, it will largely rely on gas imported by ship—so-called liquid natural gas (LNG)—or from Norway.
“Britain benefits from diverse and flexible sources of gas, supported by pipeline infrastructure that has capacity exceeding anticipated peak demand,” said Ian Radley, system operations director at National Gas.
“Based on our current market view we expect that LNG and GB storage will continue to act as the primary sources of flexible supply to Britain this winter, supplemented by significant UK continental shelf and Norwegian supplies.
“Whilst the outlook is generally more favourable than last winter, we remain alert to the risks that are present and will continue to monitor this international market.”
While there’s likely to be enough gas, National Gas is also expected to trial a scheme similar to the ESO’s DFS.
Mr. Bryn-Jacobsen stressed that the trial won’t necessarily be permanent as it’s “more of an information gathering exercise to understand whether or not it should be part of any future balancing arrangements.”
