The Murray Darling Basin Authority’s Chief Executive has said that the vital projects required to meet the Basin plan’s proposed targets will not be completed by the 2024 deadline.
“Currently, our assessment is that the Sustainable Diversion Limit Adjustment Mechanism (SDLAM) projects will most likely deliver between 290 and 415 of the 605 gigalitres required as part of the Basin Plan,” McConville said.
“Put another way; we expect a shortfall of between 190 and 315 gigalitres.
“This means the Authority will have no choice but to recommend to the Federal Water Minister amended sustainable diversion limits in southern Basin catchments.”
In 2017, the Basin states and the federal government agreed on 36 SDLAM projects across the southern connected Murray-Darling Basin. The aim was to recover 605 gigalitres of water from the consumptive pool.
Since the plan was legislated in 2012, more than 2,100 gigalitres of water have been relocated back into the environment. Under the plan, the basin states agreed to remove 2,750 gigalitres of water from irrigated agriculture and relocate that back into the basin by 2024.
Additionally, 450 gigalitres of water were to be recovered through “efficiency measures”; however, only two gigalitres have been recovered.
Currently, 634 gigalitres are still to be recovered from Murray-Darling Basin under the basin plan.
Federal Water Minister Tanya Plibersek has said she is pushing for the full delivery of the plan but is “flexible” on how it will be achieved.
“I have to take into account, realistically, what states and territories are saying to me, but I’m not taking my foot off the accelerator just yet,” Plibersek said at the water ministers’ meeting in October.
“[W]e need a pathway to getting to the full implementation of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan.”
Both NSW and Victoria have previously said they would be unable to meet the 2024 deadline, with NSW requesting more time and funding and Victoria saying the deadline was “unrealistic.”
Key Projects Unable to be Completed
Both the Productivity Commission and the Water for the Environment Special Account have said in their reports that there were risks that the projects would not be completed.McConville said that at least six of the 36 projects won’t be completed by the legislated 2024 deadline.
Additionally, the Menindee Lakes water savings project is being significantly rescoped. The project was intended to reduce evaporation and recover 105 gigalitres of water.
Another example is the Nyah Floodplain Management Project in northern Victoria.
According to the MDBA report, the Nyah Floodplain project “may be capable” of being operational by the 2024 deadline, but the authority admits that the timeframe is also challenging, particularly if the construction timeline is disrupted. Such disruptions include delayed approvals process, flooding and unfavourable construction conditions, or unforeseen supply chain issues.
The Victorian state government plans to regulate the floodplain within the Nyah project, which would allow flooding the forest to be flooded without having to raise the river height to a flood level.
“As it stands, several projects to ease constraints so the river can more easily connect with its floodplain are estimated to need another five to 10 years beyond 2024 to be finished,” McConville said.
Impacts on Irrigators and Communities
In October, the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) released an independent report (pdf) into the social and economic impacts of the Basin Plan in Victoria.The report found that water recovery under the Basin Plan “has had significant social and economic impacts on irrigators and communities in northern Victoria.”
The report also found that previous water recovery resulted in less irrigation, significant price rises in water, irrigation businesses being more reliant on the allocation market and having greater exposure to high water market prices, and increasing pressure on impacted irrigators.
“Even though no water is to be purchased from Victoria, it reduces the overall consumptive pool that has shown to drive up water prices and result in stranded irrigation assets,” the VFF states.
Jan Beer, a representative from the Upper Murray River Catchment Association in Victoria, previously told The Epoch Times that the economic impacts of the water buybacks would be “enormous” and has urged both Victoria and NSW to withdraw from the Basin Plan.