Ten percent of global GDP—that’s the estimated cost of a war over Taiwan, says Independent MP Kevin Vuong, who recently visited the island. He joined global lawmakers there to condemn China’s escalating military threat to the democratic island.
To put this in perspective, this price tag is five times the estimated $2 trillion cost of the COVID-19 pandemic and over six times the $1.5 trillion cost of Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to projections from
Bloomberg Economics, as noted by the Independent MP for Toronto’s Spadina—Fort York riding.
“With the cost of war over Taiwan projected to be $10 trillion to the global economy, conflict must be deterred,” Vuong wrote on the
X platform on July 30. He also noted in a
separate post that Canada, as a maritime trading nation, would find a Taiwan Strait that is free and governed by international law key to its prosperity.
The Taiwan Strait separates the democratic island of Taiwan from the communist-led mainland China to its west. At its narrowest point, the strait is about 130 kilometres wide. Taiwan, Canada’s
12th largest trading partner, faces ongoing military coercion as well as diplomatic and economic suppression from Beijing.
Vuong’s comment came as he travelled to Taiwan for the 2024 summit with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), which took place from July 30 to 31. Lawmakers from different parties gathered to address China’s growing authoritarianism at home and its increasingly assertive influence around the world.
The IPAC’s fourth annual summit brought together 48 lawmakers from 24 countries. In addition to Vuong, MP Yves Perron from the Bloc Québécois also attended the event.
“I was at the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China summit in Taiwan in recent days. International presence and support are crucial for preserving democracy. Taiwan can count on the Bloc Québécois moving forward,” Perron wrote in French on the
X platform.
Beijing’s Interference
Beijing has drawn criticism for pressuring several lawmakers in an attempt to prevent their attendance at the IPAC summit in Taiwan.
In a July 28
press release, the organization reported that at least eight lawmakers from five countries reported receiving emails or phone calls from Chinese diplomatic officials prior to their departure for the IPAC Summit in Taipei.
“Some discovered their party leadership had been contacted to exert additional pressure. One lawmaker was specifically invited to travel to the PRC [People’s Republic of China] rather than travel to Taipei,” IPAC said, adding that it “deplores and condemns” China’s interference attempt.
In addition to political pressure, Vuong
highlighted a Chinese military operation that coincided with the IPAC summit. On July 31, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense
reported detecting 29 aircraft and 10 vessels from the Chinese military operating around Taiwan.
at the IPAC summit on July 30, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te pledged full support for the “democratic umbrella” to help avert the threats of China’s expanding authoritarianism.
“China’s outward expansion of authoritarianism is evident through its military intimidation of neighbouring countries and through tactics including diplomatic suppression, economic coercion, cyberattacks, and the spreading of disinformation,” Lai said. “Their continuously escalating gray-zone aggression undermines regional peace and stability.”
Frank Fang contributed to this report.
