Top Turkish defense and intelligence officials and their Syrian counterparts met last week in Moscow for talks that were also attended by Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu.
The Dec. 28 meeting was the first between Turkish and Syrian defense ministers in more than a decade.
The gathering, which wasn’t announced in advance, is expected to pave the way for an eventual meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad.
It was also a further sign of warming ties after 10 years of hostility, during which Erdogan had openly called for Assad’s overthrow.
However, after months of Russian prodding, Ankara now appears ready to mend fences with Damascus—and vice versa.
On Dec. 29, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters that continued contact with the Assad government is crucial for achieving a “political solution and lasting peace” in Syria.
According to Ferit Temur, a Turkish political analyst and expert on Russian and Eurasian affairs, it’s too early to talk of an emerging Turkey–Russia–Syria “axis” in the region.
‘Trilateral Talks’
Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar and his Syrian counterpart, Ali Mahmoud Abbas, attended the talks in Moscow.Turkish and Syrian intelligence chiefs and Shoigu and other Russian officials also attended the meetings.
In a statement, the Russian Defense Ministry said the “trilateral talks” had addressed “solutions to the Syria crisis, the refugee issue, and joint efforts to battle extremist groups on Syrian territory.”
According to Oytun Orhan, an expert on the region at Ankara’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies, the “normalization of contacts” between Turkey and Syria is “based largely on security issues.”
The 565-mile-long border between Turkey and Syria remains a source of concern for both countries.
Since mid-November, Turkey has used aircraft and artillery to strike positions in northern Syria associated with the YPG, the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
Ankara views the PKK as a terrorist group, as do Washington and Brussels.
The Turkish strikes, which remain ongoing, were initially prompted by a deadly bombing in Istanbul on Nov. 13, 2022, for which Ankara blames YPG operatives coming from Syria.
Despite its close association with the PKK, the YPG enjoys the support of Washington, which uses it as an ostensible bulwark against the ISIS terrorist group in Syria.
The YPG also is the main component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of dissident Syrian groups.
Since it was cobbled together in 2015, the SDF–with U.S. support–has carved out an enclave in northeastern Syria over which Damascus exerts little control.
According to Temur, Washington has sought to weaken the central governments of Iraq and Syria by altering the demography of their northern regions “in favor of Kurdish groups.”
“This unilateral American policy,” he said, “threatens the territorial integrity of both Turkey and the Damascus administration.”
Ankara’s priority, Temur added, “is to stop the formation of a de facto armed Kurdish autonomous government on its border.”
Turkey also conducts frequent strikes on positions in northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountain region, which the PKK has long used as a headquarters.
In a statement released after the Moscow meeting, Akar, Turkey’s defense minister, stressed Ankara’s “respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all our neighbors, especially Syria and Iraq.”
Syrian Quagmire
Since 2016, Turkey has carried out three major offensives into northern Syria, with the stated aim of protecting its border from attacks by the YPG and PKK, which it largely views as one and the same.Turkey maintains a significant troop presence in northern Syria and has threatened to launch a fourth offensive—a move opposed by Washington.
Last month, Erdogan warned that Turkey would “take matters into its own hands” if the United States continued to supply the YPG with arms and equipment.
The Pentagon’s press office didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment on Erdogan’s remarks.
According to Orhan, the YPG also poses a threat to Damascus, which “doesn’t want to see the emergence of a [YPG-controlled] ‘autonomous region’ under U.S. influence.”
In light of the recent get-together in Moscow, Orhan ruled out a fresh Turkish offensive in Syria—at least in the short term.
“It’s still possible,” he told The Epoch Times. “But if it happens, it will most likely be done in coordination with Moscow and Damascus.”
“Assad, for his part, will want guarantees that Turkish forces will leave Syrian territory once the YPG is cleared from the area,” Orhan added.
Temur agreed for the most part.
“If consensus is reached between the parties in diplomatic negotiations in Moscow, a military operation can be carried out [in northern Syria] in full coordination between Turkey, Russia, and Syria,” he said.
‘Game-Changer’
Although a NATO member, Turkey maintains close relations with Russia, with which it shares extensive commercial ties and a lengthy maritime border in the Black Sea.To the displeasure of many of its NATO allies, Ankara has consistently declined to support Western-led sanctions on Moscow.
That being said, Turkey and Russia have backed opposing sides in Syria, where Moscow—with Iranian help—has helped the Assad government hold power.
Since 2015, Russia has maintained troops in Syria to support Damascus against rebel groups, some of which have enjoyed Turkish backing.
“Turkey is nevertheless deeply engaged with Russia in Syria,” Orhan said, noting that both countries were leading partners in the ongoing Astana peace process.
Many experts believe that continued U.S. support for the YPG has pushed Ankara further into Moscow’s orbit.
At a highly publicized meeting in August in the Russian city of Sochi, Putin and Erdogan agreed to step up financial, trade, and energy ties between their two countries.
Since then, Putin has urged his Turkish counterpart to bury the hatchet with Assad.
“Putin wants both sides to come to terms,” Orhan said. “Russia is under pressure in Ukraine, so it wants to consolidate its position in Syria and reach a viable political solution.”
In remarks made last month, Erdogan appeared to welcome the notion of joint action against “terrorist groups” operating in Syria.
“We want to take action with Syria and Russia as a trio,” Erdogan said on Dec. 15.
He also called for convening a “trilateral summit” between himself, Putin, and Assad sometime next year.
The following day, Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said Moscow “welcomed the chance to help restore ties between sovereign neighbors.”
Orhan attributes the apparent shift by Turkey to the latter’s dissatisfaction with Washington’s Syria policy.
“Turkey had hoped its NATO allies would halt their support for the YPG,” he said.
“When this didn’t happen,” he added, “Ankara decided to deal with the issue in coordination with Moscow and Damascus.”
According to Orhan, the realignment will likely alter the balance of power in Syria and undermine the U.S. position there.
“It’s a potential game-changer,” he said.
