Montreal, Winnipeg Byelections to Test Liberal, NDP Support

Voters arrive to cast their ballots in the federal byelection for the riding of Lasalle-Emard-Verdun, in Montreal, on Sept. 16, 2024. The Canadian Press/Christinne Muschi

Voters headed to the polls today for federal byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg. The two contests serve as a test for the Liberals and the NDP, respectively, as they try to retain those seats.

The Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun is considered a critical test for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government following the party’s unexpected June defeat by the Conservatives in a once-reliable Toronto stronghold. Tory candidate Don Stewart won with 42 percent of the vote in Toronto-St. Paul’s, a riding that had been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years.

The Liberals have triumphed in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun during the past three elections and have largely dominated the region for the better part of 100 years. But recent polling indicates the Bloc Québécois and NDP have both made huge strides in securing the popular vote, making a Liberal win less of a sure thing.

Winnipeg’s byelection in Elmwood—Transcona, meanwhile, is as much a test for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh as the Montreal riding is for Trudeau. The party has won 10 of the 11 general election votes in the riding since 1988, making Elmwood—Transcona an NDP stronghold.

The race in Winnipeg has become a battle between the NDP and the Conservatives, who have surged in popularity in polls across the country.

Nationwide polling released Sept. 15 by Abacus Data said the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 21 points, capturing 43 percent of the current vote share if an election were to be called this month. The Liberals had 22 percent followed by the NDP at 18 percent. The Liberal vote share was down by three points, while the Conservative share was up by one. The NDP vote remained unchanged.

As the fortunes of the three parties continue to change in individual ridings and across the country as a whole, here is what Canadians can expect as nearly 150,000 voters cast their ballots today.

Montreal Byelection

The Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun was most recently held by former justice minister and Liberal MP David Lametti. He announced his decision to step away from politics at the beginning of the year after representing LaSalle—Émard—Verdun since 2015.

As more than 78,000 voters head to the polls today, they will have a record 91 candidates to choose from. The ballot, the longest in Canadian federal elections history, is largely made up of candidates affiliated with a group protesting Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system.

Despite the two-column ballot, polling points to a three-way race between Liberal Laura Palestini, Bloc Québécois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé, and the NDP’s Craig Sauvé.

A recent poll by Mainstreet Research found that the Bloc’s Sauvé was leading in voter intentions for the riding, with 29.6 percent support. The Liberal’s Palestini was in second place with 24.1 percent, while the NDP’s Sauvé had 23 percent support. The Conservative candidate, Louis Ialenti, trailed with 7.3 percent support.

Trudeau said last week he won’t resign as Liberal leader if his party loses the byelection. A loss simply means his party has “more work to do,” he told Montreal radio station CJAD 800.

Winnipeg Byelection

The byelection in the Winnipeg riding Elmwood–Transcona comes after former MP Daniel Blaikie announced his resignation in March to work as a special adviser to Manitoba NDP Premier Wab Kinew.

Today’s vote is the first time in nearly a decade that the Blaikie name will not appear on the ballot. Blaikie has represented Elmwood–Transcona since 2015. Before that, his father, Bill Blaikie, represented the area for three decades beginning in 1979 until his retirement in 2008.

Instead, Leila Dance of the New Democrats will square off against Conservative Colin Reynolds and Liberal Ian MacIntyre.

The byelection in Winnipeg will see 71,000 electors head to the polls today. Polling aggregator 338Canada is putting the support for NDP at 48 percent of the popular votes compared to the Tory’s 41 percent.

The Conservatives have been using the NDP’s association with the embattled Liberal government to turn the tide against the party. Conservative lawn signs in the riding show Singh shaking hands with Trudeau, saying a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Liberal government.

The NDP recently ended its supply-and-confidence agreement that kept the Liberal minority government in power in exchange for the Liberals passing key NDP-backed legislation such as national dental-care benefits.

Singh, who has said he'll stay on as leader regardless of whether his party loses in the byelections, has criticized the Tories, saying they will cut essential programming.

Both Poilievre and Singh have travelled to Elmwood–Transcona in recent days to rally support for their candidates.

The Canadian Press contributed to this report.