Liberal Leader Peter Dutton is running out of runway in his bid to win the Australian election, but a rise in protest votes against major parties could see his prime ministerial aspirations get off the ground.
With four days until polls close, the opposition leader is seeking to defy the national polls in a come-from-behind victory to become Australia’s 32nd prime minister, as he blitzes marginal seats.
While Dutton is facing a considerable challenge to unseat Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, former media chief to Scott Morrison turned consultant Andrew Carswell said a path to victory was still possible for the coalition.
“The path is narrow, though it’s narrowing by the day, but I think the best most can do is ignore the established polls out there at the moment, because what we'll see on Saturday will be out of step,” he told AAP.
“While Labor is very much the short odds to be in minority government, it will be closer than people think.”
A Roy Morgan poll on Monday showed Labor remained on track to form a majority government, leading 53 to 47 percent on a two-party preferred basis despite a slight improvement in the coalition’s position.
While Carswell said a majority government is “awfully difficult” for the coalition to achieve, a rise in support for right-wing minor parties could flow back to the opposition.
“The preferences that come from One Nation, Trumpet of Patriots, and other centre-right minor parties to the coalition is dramatically higher than in 2022,” he said.
“One Nation is a party of protest, they preference away, generally speaking, from incumbent governments, and that will bring in to play some seats that will be a surprise for people on election night.”
The latest YouGov poll showed One Nation had a 10.5 percent primary vote, while Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots stood at 2 percent.
The result for Pauline Hanson’s party is more than double the result it got at the 2022 poll, when it had just under 5 percent of the primary vote.
In many electorates, coalition how-to-vote cards have urged supporters to put One Nation second on their ballot.
Carswell said Victoria was still looking strong for the coalition, particularly in outer-suburban seats where cost-of-living pressures were hitting hardest.
“The further from the CBD, the better—there is the chance of some surprises on election night in outer suburban seats,” he said.
Albanese will begin Tuesday campaigning in Brisbane, where Labor is hoping to gain ground, while Dutton will be starting the day in Sydney.
