Minister Defends Weather Forecast System After Late Flood Warnings

Holloways Beach resident watches the storm across the Coral Sea as Cyclone Jasper approaches landfall in Cairns in far north Queensland on Dec. 13, 2023. (Brian Cassey/AFP via Getty Images)

Federal Emergency Management Minister Murray Watt has defended the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) amid criticism of severe flood warnings in far north Queensland.

Floods following ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper left far north Queensland residents stranded, with about 2,000mm of rain falling in some areas over the past seven days.

BOM released a video update on Dec. 16 indicating the coastal rainfall intensity was decreasing, leading to the removal of severe weather warnings in some areas.

The residents in Holloways Beach, Cairns, expressed outrage that they received a flood warning on the morning of Dec. 17 after being isolated.

Federal member for Leichhardt Warren Entsch joined the chorus of criticism against the bureau.

“Everyone is entirely reliant upon BOM’s advice; it’s clear there was a far greater focus on Cyclone Jasper and not nearly enough clear advice and timely warnings about the one-in-a-hundred-year rainfall event that followed,” he said.

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However, Mr. Watt expressed “full confidence” in the ability of the bureau and its predictions.

“The Bureau of Meteorology do the absolute best they can with the science they have available,” he said, adding that in a “highly unpredictable weather system ... meteorology is not a perfect science.”

“I'd ask people to remember that what we were dealing with was a highly unpredictable, unprecedented amount of rain into an area of Australia that knows how to deal with storms, cyclones, and floods.”

He added the bureau’s warnings about life-threatening flash flooding were “there for all people to see” on social media recently.

“I can’t think of another agency in the world that I'd rather be relying on to make decisions.”

‘Evolving Weather’

BOM’s Laura Boekel said, “The weather situation evolved quite rapidly.”

She explained that on the afternoon of Dec. 16, the bureau reached out to emergency services and local councils, briefing them on the weather conditions before warnings were issued around 9 p.m. She said the intensity of rainfall rates began to change in the early hours of Dec. 17.

“So, we used the best science to make those predictions, and we had to change that warning strategy quite quickly into the weekend as we got more information that those rain rates were likely to be higher than initially predicted,” she said.

Nevertheless, she indicated that the warning strategy would stay the same for the next significant weather event.

“In terms of our warning strategy, we do advise on all of our social media that the most up-to-date information is always on the website. That’s where all of our warnings and all of our forecasts will be published. And then we use social media to try and back up and emphasise those messages to get out to the community,” she said.

Police Commissioner Shane Chelepy maintained residents were informed.

“As the water levels rose, emergency services, including police, fire, and SES, went door-to-door in those communities, informing residents about the situation,” he said.

On Dec. 20, the BOM issued a fresh severe thunderstorm warning for portions of Queensland, predicting heavy rainfall and large hail in the southern and central areas of the state.

“Severe thunderstorms will likely produce large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Roma, Charleville, Isisford, Injune, Tambo, and Blackall,“ it said.

Downpour Spurs $250,000 in Recovery Aid

Mr. Watt announced that the federal and Queensland governments allocated disaster recovery funding of up to $250,000 (US$168,000) for farmers and small businesses, $100,000 for non-profits to cover repairs for equipment, premises, and stock, and an extra joint funding of $5,000 for primary producers.

He said the subsidies aim to help reduce the expenses associated with transporting livestock and essential materials.

He added that one local council received Disaster Recovery Funding of up to $1,000 for each eligible adult and $400 for each child who experienced substantial losses.

“Hinchinbrook Shire Council can now also access funding to help with emergency repairs to roads and bridges, which will help with response and reconstruction efforts. This support has also been activated for Cairns, Cassowary Coast, Cook Shire, Douglas Shire, Hope Vale, Mareeba, Tablelands, Wujal Wujal and Yarrabah in recent days,” he said. 

Queensland Premier Steven Miles took to X to add that helicopter pilots have been tirelessly rescuing people from rooftops amid road closures and flooding.

“There’s a lot of Queenslanders who owe their lives to their work, and we couldn’t be more grateful,” he said.

The Australian Defence Force also sent two helicopters from Townsville to aid stranded residents, some stuck on rooftops, before moving to higher ground on Dec. 18.

However, Deputy Police Commissioner Katrina Carrol said, “Sadly, we have the report of an 85-year-old gentleman missing in Wujal Wujal.”

“As a result, police have been deployed into that area to search for that gentleman,” she said.

“As the waters recede, please be mindful the roads are extraordinarily damaged, and there is still flooding over many of our roads. So be careful going about your business, and please, as always, if it’s flooded, forget it.”