Lower Your Expectations for Australia’s Latest Defence ‘Overhaul’

Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles speaks as he stands aboard the Australian Navy ship HMAS Canberra in Sydney, Australia, on Feb. 20, 2024. David Gray/AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

There is only one significant question worth asking about the Australian government’s naval review: When will the new ships actually be delivered?

The history of defence reviews and promised military equipment for the past three decades has been a sorry saga of promises, delays, and disappointments, of which the replacement of the Collins-class submarines is the most egregious example.

The latest plan revealed this week offers nothing to counter these concerns.

The Plan

In summary, it involves six elements.

First, the independent review found a $25 billion funding hole in the Royal Australian Navy’s surface fleet program.

In response, the Albanese Labor government will inject an additional $1.7 billion over the next Forward Estimates (three years) and $11.1 billion in additional funding over the next decade for the Navy’s surface combatant fleet, and Australia’s shipbuilding industry.

The government says it is committed to “continuous naval shipbuilding” in Australia with a promise of more than 3,700 direct jobs in South Australia and Western Australia (WA) over the next decade.

Hunter class frigates and destroyers will continue to be built at Osborne Naval Shipyard in South Australia. There is a plan for eight new general-purpose frigates to be built at WA’s Henderson Shipyard although the precinct is not currently configured for this build.

The plan will see a doubling of the Navy’s major surface combatant fleet, from 11 to 20 warships, by the mid to late 2040s, in addition to six semi-autonomous Large Optionally Crewed Surface Vessels (LOSV).

The “larger and more lethal Australian Navy” will comprise three upgraded Hobart class destroyers, six Hunter class frigates (rather than the initially planned nine), 11 new general purpose frigates (which will eventually replace Anzacs), six new Large Optionally Crewed Surface Vessels (LOSVs)

Sailors from the Royal Australian Navy stand behind flags aboard the Australian Navy ship HMAS Canberra in Sydney, Australia, on Feb. 20, 2024. David Gray/AFP via Getty Images

Will It Work?

The plan has all the hallmarks of a political response, as well as all the dangers of the existing approach to defence—excessive time frames and the risk of significant cost escalation.

Several factors have contributed to inertia in the Defence Forces: the perverse influence of South Australian domestic politics on national security; the lack of urgency and the desire for bespoke solutions in the Defence Department, rather than off-the-shelf options; the churn of governments and defence ministers; and the continuing ‘She’ll be right, mate’ attitude to the threats facing Australia.

If Australia is ever invaded, a large portion of the blame for our lack of preparedness can be sheeted home to a generation of South Australian politicians who put parochial interests ahead of national security.

The Rudd-Gillard-Rudd (2007–13) Labor governments wasted years without a ship purchase. The country is still playing catch-up in an increasingly fractious world.

This was exacerbated under Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (2015-18) who made promoting domestic defence industries a primary consideration. Bidding wars between states to manufacture equipment in Australia became commonplace when suitable equipment could have been purchased from overseas.

These factors are evident in the current government’s response, particularly the continued emphasis on local shipbuilding, which is slower and more costly than purchasing off-the-shelf.

Raising defence expenditure to 2.4 percent of GDP is welcome, but delivery on promises remains the issue.

Timeframes out to the mid-2040s are less than reassuring. The region is not static. Potential aggressors are rapidly upgrading and expanding their militaries, including their naval fleets.

Of the $11 billion in additional funding, only $1.7 billion will be spent in the next four years!

It is a mark of the minister’s timidity that he has offered a briefing on the plan to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

There seems a continued tacit reliance on the United States to come to our aid, and a naive belief that regional conflict will not occur.

An urgent consideration of Australia’s defence needs over the next five years is overdue.

Instead, the government promises programs to be delivered well into the future, and well after it has left office.