Liberals Fall Below NDP in Popular Support: Poll

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leaves after a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Dec. 20, 2024. The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick

A new poll suggests that the level of support for the Liberals has fallen below that of the New Democrats, to just 16 percent.

Results of an Angus Reid survey conducted between Dec. 27 and Dec. 30 indicates that the Liberal government’s poll numbers dropped by 5 percentage points after Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland abruptly resigned from cabinet on Dec. 16, the same day she was scheduled to deliver the fall economic statement.

Angus Reid said the Liberals’ latest support numbers are “possibly the lowest vote intention the Liberals have ever received in the modern era.”

Prior data, from a survey done between Nov. 29 and Dec. 5, said the Liberals had 21 percent support. The Conservatives, for their part, saw their support levels rise from 43 percent to 45 percent, while the NDP’s support rose slightly from 20 percent to 21 percent.

Support for the Liberals in the two weeks since Freeland’s departure from cabinet has fallen most sharply among women aged 35 to 54, with those voters mostly turning to the Conservatives.

The NDP benefitted little from this shift but saw some gains in support among older men and younger women.

Angus Reid noted that even prior to the 2011 election that saw Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff win just 34 seats and the Conservatives win a majority government, with 167 seats, Liberal polling support never fell below 17 percent.

Approval of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also fallen to an all-time low of 22 percent, while 75 percent of Canadians do not approve of him, with 52 percent indicating “strong disapprove” and 23 percent saying “moderately disapprove.” Even among those who voted Liberal in the last federal election, just 46 percent approve of Trudeau’s performance, while 51 percent disapprove.

Only 16 percent of Canadians would like Trudeau to stay on as prime minister and lead the party as long as it can hold on to its minority in Parliament, while 38 percent want him to immediately call an election, and 46 percent want him to resign immediately and allow for a Liberal leadership contest. Conservatives are more likely to want Trudeau to call an election and stay on as leader through the election, while the majority of Liberal and NDP voters want his resignation and a leadership race.

Trudeau has said he is weighing his options over the winter break, as several Liberal MPs and the entire Atlantic Liberal caucus have called for him to resign. Gerald Butts, a friend and former top adviser to Trudeau, said his resignation is “widely expected” to happen soon, writing in a Substack post.

The Angus Reid poll also indicated that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s favourability level has remained relatively steady, at 38 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has seen his favourability continue declining, with 58 percent of Canadians now against him and 33 percent supporting him.

The majority of 2021 Liberal Party supporters are now looking to elsewhere, with 16 percent moving to the Conservatives, 20 percent moving to the NDP, 7 percent moving to the Bloc Québécois, while 41 percent are staying with the Liberals. A majority of 2021 Conservative voters, 89 percent, say they will vote for the party again in the next election, while 68 percent of NDP voters say the same.

While the New Democrats have voted against all three of the Conservative Party’s recent non-confidence motions, Singh announced on Dec. 20 that his party would table a non-confidence motion to bring down the Liberal government after the House reconvenes on Jan. 27. The Conservatives also plan to reconvene the House of Commons public accounts committee early in the new year, beginning Jan. 7, to table a non-confidence motion to be voted on as soon as Jan. 30.