Liberal and NDP Strongholds to Be Tested in Upcoming Byelections

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh puts up campaign posters with candidate Craig Sauvé on July 29, 2024 in Montreal. A federal byelection will be held in the riding of Lasalle-Émard-Verdun Sept. 16, 2024. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)

Canadians over 2,000 km apart will go to the polls in mid-September to vote in federal byelections as different as they are distant.

In Winnipeg’s Elmwood—Transcona, the NDP will try to defend its traditionally held riding against nationally surging Conservatives.

In the Montréal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, Liberals will seek to prevent losing another stronghold after the late June byelection upset in Toronto—St.Paul’s.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on July 28 the two byelections will be held on Sept. 16.

The seats in the House of Commons became empty after the resignation of NDP MP Daniel Blaikie and Liberal MP David Lametti.

The byelection in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun had to be called before July 30, whereas the one in Elmwood—Transcona had to be called by Sept. 29.

Mr. Trudeau did not announce a date for the byelection in the B.C. riding of Cloverdale-Langley City, which has to be called by Nov. 30 after the resignation of Liberal MP John Aldag. Cloverdale-Langley City is not a safe Liberal riding, with the Tories previously in control from 2019 to 2021 and polling well nationally.

The provincial election in B.C. will take place on Oct. 19 and it now appears the federal byelection Cloverdale-Langley City will be held after.

LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

Conservatives have had a strong lead in the polls over the Liberals over an extended period, but their ability to pierce through in major urban centres remained untested until last month.

On June 24, Conservative candidate Don Stewart beat Liberal candidate Leslie Church by 633 votes in the Toronto—St.Paul’s byelection. Liberals had held the riding since 1993, and former minister Carolyn Bennett held the seat since 1997.

Ms. Bennett resigned in December, a few months after being removed from cabinet in the 2023 summer shuffle.

The LaSalle—Émard—Verdun byelection comes under similar circumstances, with Mr. Lametti leaving politics after losing his ministerial post during the same shuffle. The former justice minister held the seat since 2015 when the riding was created.

The area has been strongly Liberal, but the NDP made a breakthrough during the 2011 “orange wave” when it won 103 seats and became the official opposition. A previous riding that merged into the current riding’s boundaries has switched hands over the years between the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Québécois.

Facing a divided opposition, with the NDP and Bloc each gaining around 20 percent of the vote in the 2021 election, the odds of a stunning upset are lower for the Liberals. But a poorer showing in Montreal, where it holds all but two ridings, could raise alarm for Liberal MPs in the area and in other parts of the province where there’s a clear number two contender.

Mr. Trudeau has appointed Laura Palestini, a city councillor, as Liberal candidate for LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. The move has sparked protest from other Liberal hopefuls who wanted an open nomination race.

Ms. Palestini will face off against the NDP’s Craig Sauvé, also a city councillor, and Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé, who works for an economic think tank. The Tories will be represented by small business owner Louis Ialenti.

Elmwood—Transcona

The Elmwood—Transcona riding of Winnipeg has been an NDP stronghold since 1988.

Daniel Blaikie’s father, Bill Blaikie, held the seat from 1988 to 2008. The seat was held by another NDP MP between 2008 and 2011 and then by a Conservative between 2011 and 2015. Daniel Blaikie won the riding in 2015 and resigned in March of this year to work as a senior adviser to Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew.

Replacing Mr. Blaikie as the NDP candidate in the riding is Leila Dance, the executive director of the Transcona Business Improvement Zone.

Her closest competitor is likely to be Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, a construction electrician described by the party as a proud union member.

The Liberal Party has nominated former teacher and union leader Ian MacIntyre for the contest.

Mr. Blaikie again won the riding in 2021 with 49.7 percent of the votes. Conservatives came in second with 28.1 percent and the Liberals were a distant third with 14.7 percent.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said on July 28 the riding has been “served well” by the Blaikies and that Ms. Dance would “continue to stand up for working people” and “fight against Conservative cuts to health care.”

Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre said on social media on July 29 that the byelection would be a “mini carbon tax referendum.”

Asked to comment about the importance of the upcoming byelections, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said “every election matters.”

“We have strong candidates in both of those ridings,” she said during a press conference in Toronto on July 29.

The Canadian Press contributed to this report.