Labour Hails ‘Seismic’ By-election Win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Michael Shanks won by an overwhelming 58.55 percent, boosting Labour’s confidence to oust the Tories and the SNP in the next general election.
Labour Hails ‘Seismic’ By-election Win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (R) with candidate Michael Shanks after Labour won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, at South Lanarkshire Council Headquarters in Hamilton, England, on Oct. 6, 2023. Jane Barlow/PA
Lily Zhou
Updated:

Labour leaders in Westminster and Scotland have hailed what they said was a “seismic result” following the party’s landslide victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election on Thursday.

Michael Shanks bagged 17,845 votes, or 58.55 percent, pulling off a 20.36 percent swing from the Scottish National Party (SNP).

The by-election was called to replace the SNP’s Margaret Ferrier, who had been suspended from Parliament and recalled for “deliberately” breaking COVID-19 rules.
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Ms. Ferrier visited shops, took train journeys between Scotland and London, and attended Parliament after contracting COVID-19 in 2020.

She had won the 2019 election with 23,775 votes, or 44.2 percent.

The defeat on Thursday will pile more pressure on SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf, who has seen his party’s fortunes decline in the polls in the wake of the ongoing police investigation into the SNP’s finance.

The seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West has been passed between Labour and the SNP since the southern Scottish constituency was created in 2015.

Labour's Michael Shanks wins the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, at South Lanarkshire Council Headquarters in Hamilton, England, on Oct. 6, 2023. (Jane Barlow/PA)
Labour's Michael Shanks wins the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, at South Lanarkshire Council Headquarters in Hamilton, England, on Oct. 6, 2023. Jane Barlow/PA
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On Thursday, a total of 30,531 votes were cast, with turnout standing at 37.2 percent, well below the 66.5 percent turnout in the last general election.

SNP candidate Katy Loudon had 8,399 votes, or 27.56 percent.

Only 1,192, or 3 percent, of the votes went to Conservative candidate Thomas Kerr, while the Liberal Democrats’ Gloria Adebo, Green Party candidate Cameron Eadie, and the Reform Party’s David Stark secured 2.94 percent, 1.97 percent, and 1.32 percent of the votes respectively.

Writing on X, formerly known as Twitter, Mr. Shanks said it’s the honour of his life to be elected.

Labour Surprised By Margin of Victory

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it was a “seismic result,” asserting the the party will bring about the changes voters want in England and Scotland.
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“People in Rutherglen and Hamilton West have sent a clear message—it is time for change. And it is clear they believe that this changed Labour Party can deliver it,” he said.

“I have always said that winning back the trust of people in Scotland is essential. Tonight’s victory is the culmination of three-and-a-half years of hard work and humility on that journey. I am grateful to everyone who has put their faith in us today—we will work every day to repay it.

“Voters across Scotland and across Britain want a government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country. They want to move on from two SNP and Tory governments that offer only more division, more chaos, and more infighting,” Sir Keir said.

“The country deserves a government firmly on their side and focused on their priorities—and Labour will deliver that for them,” he added.

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Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at a party rally in Rutherglen ahead of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in England on Sept. 29, 2023. (Andy Buchanan/PA)
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at a party rally in Rutherglen ahead of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in England on Sept. 29, 2023. Andy Buchanan/PA

In a similar statement posted on X, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said the “seismic result shows Scottish politics has changed.”

“Scots are tired of two tired, failing, and incompetent governments,” he said, taking aim at the SNP in Scotland and the Conservative Party in Westminster.

“Scottish Labour is now the party of change and tonight demonstrates Scotland will lead the way in delivering a Labour government,” he said.

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He later told BBC Radio Scotland’s “Good Morning Scotland” programme that Labour didn’t expect the result to be as good as it was.

“When I became leader two years ago, we were 32 points behind the SNP in the opinion polls. People were talking about Scottish Labour survival,” he said.

“For us two years on to win a parliamentary by-election for the first time in more than 12 years in Scotland, to get more than double the vote share of the SNP and to get a swing of more than 20 percent, is seismic, it is huge, it is significant.”

He said he believes Labour will “have an even stronger message” in the next general election because of it.

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Also posting on X, Mr. Yousaf said the night was “disappointing” for the SNP.

He thanked Ms. Loudon and SNP activists, and congratulated Mr. Shanks, adding, “Circumstances of this by-election were always very difficult for us.”

“Collapse in the Tory vote, which went straight to Labour, also a significant factor,“ he said. ”We lost this seat in 2017, and like 2019 we can win this seat back. However, we will reflect on what we have to do to regain the trust of the people of Rutherglen [and] Hamilton West,” he said.

Pollster: Upcoming By-election Will Tell Us More

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said Labour’s momentum is comparable to before the party’s 1997 landslide.

“These are the kind of swings you saw before 1997,” he said.

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“The swings before 1997 were from the Conservatives and it is the swings from the Conservatives that matter,” he said.

However, Sir John believes the upcoming by-election in Tamworth on Oct. 19 “will tell us much more than Rutherglen does about the probability of the party to win a general election, not least because Tamworth is effectively south-east Staffordshire, which is the seat that Labour won in a by-election before the 1997 general election.”

“This is Labour apparently now able to put on the kind of performance that, frankly, it has not been able to put on at any stage since the independence referendum,” he said.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice speaks to NTD's "British Thought Leaders" programme. (NTD)
Polling expert Sir John Curtice speaks to NTD's "British Thought Leaders" programme. NTD
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In the three by-elections on July 20, the Conservative Party lost two seats in England to Labour and the Lib Dems respectively, while hanging on to the third which was vacated by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Labour’s failure to take Mr. Johnson’s old seat was attributed to London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone.

The Conservative government has since rolled back a number of its net-zero pledges, seeking to portray itself as a pragmatic pro-drivers party.

On Oct. 19, the Tories are facing two more crunch by-elections to replace former Tory whip Chris Pincher in Tamworth and former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries in Mid Bedfordshire.
PA Media contributed to this report.