Australian Migration Falling Slower Than Expected: Think Tank Analysis

Passengers are seen after disembarking a French Government flight arriving from Noumea at Brisbane International Airport in Brisbane, Australia, on May 22, 2024. Patrick Hamilton/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Australia’s net migration intake totalled 445,510 from July 2023 to May 2024, a think tank said.

The Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) noted that the figures, despite lacking a month’s worth of data for the financial year, already surpassed the federal government’s targeted net overseas migration of 395,000.

The estimate is based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data for arrivals and departures, specifically the number of long-term and permanent arrivals. This method of calculation differs from that used for official migration data.

Kevin You, senior fellow at IPA, said according to their analysis, the federal government will overshoot its commitment to reducing overseas migration.

“The prime minister’s commitment to halve the annual migration intake, made just two months ago, is not worth the paper it is written on, and is yet another broken promise from a government which is making it harder for mainstream Australians to get ahead,” he said.

Mr. You added that the continuous intake of people in Australia worsens the cost of living crisis brought about by high rental and housing prices.

The IPA cited its previous research saying that Australians were about $7,848 poorer on a per capita basis last year.

“Migration has and will continue to play a critical role in Australia’s story. However, the current unplanned, record migration intake is placing immense pressure on housing costs and our infrastructure, has not solved our worker shortage crisis and has left Australians worse off,” said Mr. You.

Budget papers further forecasted for Australia’s annual migration numbers to fall from 395,000 in 2023–24 and 260,000 in 2024–25 under Labor’s migration reforms.

These reforms included raising the international student visa fee from $710 to $1,600, effective at the start of July.

The government also shortened the duration of temporary graduate visas and reduced the age eligibility.

In addition, the temporary skilled migration income threshold was increased from $70,000 to $73,150.

However, Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox was critical of the component to restrict skilled migration.

“If we are to compete in a rapidly changing and increasingly volatile global economy we must have the people who can best help us win—both homegrown and imported. We are already suffering from massive labour and skills shortages which is putting real pressure on areas such as construction, manufacturing and the care economy,” said Mr. Willox.

“To cut the skilled component of the migration program would be a momentous act of economic self harm. If governments want to cut the migration program for whatever reason, they should look elsewhere beyond the skilled pathway.”

Last month, the ABS reported that net overseas migration drove 84 percent of Australia’s population growth last year.

ABS data showed that country’s population grew by 2.5 percent to 26.97 million people in 2023, with natural increase falling 6.4 percent to 103,900 people and net overseas migration rising 26.3 percent to 547,300 people.