La Nina Weather Pattern Predicted To Return in Southern Hemisphere: Bureau of Meteorology

Flooding occurs in the town of Lismore, northeastern New South Wales, Australia, on Feb. 28, 2022. AAP Image/Jason O'Brien

Australians have been told to brace for more rain and flooding this summer after the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said in its latest climate update for the region that the La Nina Alert will remain in place given the high chance of the conditions returning.

“The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook continues at La Niña ALERT, indicating at least a 70 percent chance of La Niña reforming later this year,” the Bureau said. “This is around triple the normal likelihood. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer.”

NOAA illustration of how La Niña impacts global climate patterns throughout the year. NOAA

BOM also noted that it had seen evidence that cooling is underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean is experiencing a “negative” Indian Ocean Dipole, where the waters are cooler on the ocean’s west than on its east and westerly winds hit Australia’s northwest.

The La Nina weather phenomenon creates cooler and wetter weather conditions in Australia, often leading to above-average rainfall in Australia’s east and north.

A family are evacuated by State Emergency Service workers due to rising floodwaters in Sydney, Australia, on July 4, 2022. Jenny Evans/Getty Images

If the climate modelling is correct, this will be the third year in a row that Australia has experienced the weather phenomenon, which has generated devastating floods along the east coast of the country.

It will also be the fourth time Australia has experienced a consecutive La Nina event in the past 30 years since modelling on the phenomenon began in the 1990s.

La Nina Flooding Event Costs Run Into Billions

The 2022 flooding events in South-East Queensland and Northern New South Wales (NSW) have now reached $5.3 billion (around US$3.6 billion) in insured damages, the latest data from the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) has shown.

Members of the Australian Defence Force are seen helping in the clean up of flood affected properties in Goodna of Queensland, Australia, on March 8, 2022. The state is looking at a $2.5 billion damage bill from the flooding that claimed 13 lives. AAP Image/Darren England

According to the ICA, 230,000 insurance claims have been lodged in relation to the flooding events in NSW and Queensland, with 145,000 claims still outstanding.

The floods were also one of the most expensive natural disasters in Australia’s history, with only the devastating Cyclone Tracey, which caused $5.04 billion worth of damage in 1974 and the Eastern Sydney Hailstorm from 1999 which caused $5.57 billion worth of damage costing more.