Kinmen Speedboat Incident, Chinese Intellectuals Flocking to Japan: New Era of Change Appears to Be Brewing in Asia-Pacific

Taiwanese coast guards inspect a vessel that capsized during a chase off the coast of Kinmen archipelago in Taiwan on Feb. 14, 2024. Taiwan Coast Guard Administration via AP

News Analysis

The recent Chinese speedboat incident in Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen islands and the ensuing chain reaction have attracted considerable attention from the international community, especially from Japan, which is expected to play an increasingly important role in the Western Pacific region.

On the other hand, in the past two years, more and more Chinese intellectual elites have chosen to emigrate to Japan instead of Europe and the United States as in the past, which is quite similar to the history of the late Qing Dynasty, when the Chinese elite studied in Japan on a large scale.

This new trend prompts a reflection on Japan’s historical influence on China’s social evolution and modernization efforts. It also raises an intriguing question about the potential impact of their migration to Japan on China’s future societal transformations. Could this movement herald a new phase of change and development for China, reminiscent of the transformative era of the late Qing Dynasty?

Japan Highly Attentive to Regional Tensions

On the afternoon of Feb. 14, a Chinese speedboat with four people on board capsized and two people drowned as they tried to escape from the Taiwanese Coast Guard in the restricted waters.

The incidents have fueled cross-strait tensions as the Chinese Coast Guard has responded with increased patrols near the Kinmen Islands, which lie less than two miles off the Chinese coastline.

Chen Wenjia, an expert on Japan in Taiwan and a professor at the National Chengchi University in Taiwan, said on the “Pinnacle View” program that Japan has always been very concerned about the peace and security in the Taiwan Strait. It is particularly vigilant about the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) strategic partnership with Russia and North Korea.

“On the surface, Japan has not openly expressed concern about the Chinese speedboat incident, which resulted in two deaths. However, I have observed that behind the scenes, Taiwan has some security interactions with Japan, and I think that Japan must have been privately monitoring this incident and the ripple effects, and it may have maintained communication with Taiwan in order to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” he said.

Mr. Chen specifically mentioned that Japan’s new defense white paper carries forward former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s oft-quoted paradigm that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance.”

“Therefore, Japan can intervene and send troops to Taiwan in three scenarios,” Mr. Chen said.

“The first is a situation that has a big impact, such as when the United States takes military action, Japan can provide logistical support. Second, in a crisis situation, such as when the United States and other countries are attacked, Japan can exercise the right of collective self-defense to assist in counterattacking. Third, in the event of an armed attack, Japan can launch military counterattacks to ensure Japan’s national security in the event of an attack on the Japanese mainland, including U.S. military bases. As such, Japan is actually quite concerned about the consequences of the Kinmen incident.”

Strategic Position of Taiwan Strait Extremely Important

Guo Jun, the head of The Epoch Times’ Hong Kong branch, said on the “Pinnacle View” that the Indo-Pacific region is expected to be the next epicenter of world economic growth.

“Japan’s role in global politics and the economy will increasingly align with the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Strategy, highlighting the Indo-Pacific region’s future significance as the next epicenter of world economic growth. Over the past centuries, the economic focus shifted from Europe to North America. Now, it’s moving towards the Indo-Pacific in Asia, expected to be pivotal in the next 50 to 100 years,” she said.

In her view, the Indo-Pacific houses two critical blocks: Northeast Asia, including China, Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, with a population of 1.6 billion ; and Southeast Asia, with ASEAN countries and India, totaling 2.1 billion population.

“The entire region, already experiencing rapid growth, has developed a 500 million strong middle-class in the last decade and is expected to add another 500 million in the next 20 years, significantly altering the global geopolitical landscape,” she said.

“History has shown that regions of high population density and affluence are often also regions rife with conflicts,” Ms. Guo continued. “Thus, the Asia-Pacific is set to witness rapid development alongside escalating conflicts. Major world powers, including the United States, Europe, Russia, China, Japan, and India, are strategically positioning themselves in this region. The United States and Japan, notably proactive with the Indo-Pacific Strategy initially proposed by Shinzo Abe, are leading this shift, marking a considerable change in global focus.”

She pointed out that as the first Asian country to modernize, Japan has profoundly impacted Asia’s development.

“Its future role, extending beyond economic and technological influence to potentially include military affairs, is significant. Japanese elites aim to significantly contribute to regional development. Against this backdrop, the strategic importance of the Taiwan Strait is undeniable and crucial.”

Ms. Guo also noted that Japan is a very peculiar country in that its ability to learn from other nations is impressive, as is its ability to adapt itself. Japan had been the teacher of China’s modernization. Forty percent of modern Chinese vocabulary comes from Japan, including basic scientific concepts such as science, physics, chemistry, and biology, as well as modern business concepts and administrative agencies.

Reminiscent of the Pre-Revolution Time 100 Years Ago

Li Jun, an independent TV producer, talked about the recent trend of Chinese emigrating to Japan and some activities held by Chinese intellectuals in Tokyo that had special significance.

According to Mr. Li, the number of immigrants from mainland China to Japan has been increasing in recent years. There are now about 3 million foreigners in Japan, of which 1 million are Chinese. According to Japanese statistics, in 2015, the Chinese population was only about 800,000, but it has increased by 200,000 from 2015 to the present. About one-third of these one million Chinese live in Tokyo.

“Notably, the number of intellectuals, especially intellectual elites, has been particularly high in recent years. For example, Qin Hui, a famous Chinese historian from Tsinghua University, is now a visiting professor at the University of Tokyo. Qin Hui often organizes lectures, salons, and other activities in Japan, and many of the audience members are professors from Peking University. They would go up to the podium to participate in the discussion. There is another very famous Chinese historian Fu Guochong, also in Tokyo, who recently organized a lecture called ‘Rebuilding China in Tokyo.’ He talked about the many Chinese intellectuals who came to Japan in the last years of the Qing Dynasty, including the formation of the Tong Meng Hui (Chinese Revolutionary League), which contributed to the Xinhai Revolution. Of course, his lecture has deep moral lessons for the audience.”

On “Pinnacle View,” Mr. Li recounted that when China was in turmoil and politically backward in the last century, Japan was the only industrialized and modernized country in Asia, which was a strong attraction to China. Therefore, many young Chinese students went to Japan to study, hoping to learn from Japan’s strengths across its political, economic, cultural, and military knowledge and experience, all aiming to transform and revitalize China.

“For example, Dr. Sun Yat-sen founded Tong Meng Hui in Japan, and later Chiang Kai-shek went to Japan to study in a cadet school, and then used his military experience to accomplish the Northern Expedition and the War of Resistance, etc. Therefore, Japan in the last century did have a far-reaching influence on China, both militarily and politically,” Mr. Li said.

Shi Shan, an expert on China issues and senior writer and contributor to The Epoch Times added that Japan indeed attracted many young Chinese with aspirations and courage, such as Wang Jingwei, a patriotic anti-Qing revolutionary, He Yingqin, the Minister of National Defense of the Republic of China during the War of Resistance, and Zhang Zizhong, the first Chinese general to be killed during the War of Resistance Against Japan.

“So there were a lot of big names in that group,” he said. “Of course, we hope to see the next wave of change, and we hope that our political or cultural elites who are currently in Japan will bring the next wave of change to China, and we look forward to that day.”