All three countries have been affected by jihadist violence, in part a reason given for the army takeovers.
The AES, a mutual defense pact similar to that of NATO, goes by the policy that any attack on one member would be treated as an attack on the others.
However, the alliance has since taken up some of the G5 Sahel’s ideas—such as starting a joint airline—and has increasingly been viewed as a tool to foster anti-Western and anti-French sentiment.
The G5 Sahel was founded in 2014 as a regional, intergovernmental organization to provide an institutional framework to promote development and security within its five member countries of Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger.
Security cooperation dominated the agenda of the AES leaders’ July 6 meeting.
Niger’s military leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, reaffirmed the junta chiefs’ desire to build a community of sovereign peoples “far from the control of foreign powers” in the place of ECOWAS.
Taking the cue, Burkinabé leader Capt. Ibrahim Traoré said the African continent has suffered and continues to suffer from the “fire” of the imperialists.
Taking his message to X, Capt. Traoré said in a post that together, they would consolidate the foundations of their “true independence.”
The junta chiefs also looked toward forming closer economic ties, including creating a common currency. It’s speculated that this would be a rejection of the France-backed CFA franc, which is used in many states across the region.
Calls for greater sovereignty and a rejection of the former colonial power have been a key part of the rhetoric coming from the junta leaders. The countries have also resisted calls from ECOWAS for a rapid return to civilian rule.
Analysts have raised fears that the juntas’ joint departure from ECOWAS exposes the region to greater instability and disintegration.
“ECOWAS is Africa’s most advanced regional framework to promote democracy and rights,” Mr. Tiwana told The Epoch Times in an email.
“Leaders who genuinely care about the welfare of their people look to strengthen, not sabotage human rights frameworks embedded in international and regional treaties.”
The defense alliance among the three junta-led states is a well-calculated move to shield each other from being singled out for any military intervention, according to David Otto, director of counterterrorism for the Geneva Centre of Africa Security and Strategic Studies and Africa Representative for the U.S. Antiterrorism Accreditation Board.
A confederation reduces the economic stress levels driven by external sanctions and suspensions.
“In today’s ecosystem of geopolitics, no one nation can survive in isolation,” Mr. Otto, who’s also a certified master antiterrorism specialist and a NATO-recommended trainer for the Defence Against Terrorism Course, told The Epoch Times.
“The fact that these three member states share common borders in the Liptako Gourma triangle makes a stronger case for the effectiveness of the confederation and defense alliance.”
He said severing ties with ECOWAS and establishing a tripartite defense alliance and a confederation of states now acts as a collective defense mechanism for the members of the alliance against ECOWAS.
“A confederation is not only feasible in the sense that it shields these nations against regional sanctions and threats of invasion to restore democracy, but it also acts as a critical deterrent against any internal or external aggression of one of its members,” he said.
“Such an alliance reduces the threat level faced by these states to internal rather than external. It places the military leadership of these states in a position where they are literally shielded from any political, economic, or military sanctions and aggression by ECOWAS.”
He predicts that how the alliance and the confederation translate to safety and security for these member states and the region will depend on the national security implementation strategies deployed: the practical security strategies put in place, how they finance the alliance and the confederation, the level of coordination among the three states, and how they manage strategic communications with their respective populations to ensure massive and sustained support for military rule.
“But crucially, too, how long they intend to stay in transition with a shaky economy with all internal political opposition and external pressures for a return to civilian democratic rule,” he said.
“All the above indices are key elements to peace and stability in the Sahel region.”
The head of the ECOWAS commission, Omar Alieu Touray, said the juntas’ withdrawal from the bloc could amount to political isolation, the loss of millions of dollars in funding, and the restriction of the freedom of movement; a common market of 400 million people offered by the bloc is also under threat.
Senegal’s newly elected leader, Basirou Diomaye Faye, was tasked with bringing the three junta-ruled states back into ECOWAS.
Mr. Otto considers this a “difficult” job.
“If ECOWAS succeeds in convincing the three states to transition to democracy, the likelihood of maintaining their continued membership will be high, but without an agreeable transition plan, the prospect of a committed reunion is far [from] achievable,” he said.
For the military leadership in the region to sustain the anti-French rhetoric—notably portraying French operations as ineffective in dealing with growing violent extremism in the region—Mr. Otto said an alliance of states with a “common regional threat” seems the right structure to show some level of preparedness, regional integration, and international standing.
“Such an alliance is designed to not only attract external partners to support their military campaigns against jihadists, but also provide a credible cover for external support for a confederation rather than individual member states,” he said.
“French post-colonial stranglehold on its former colonies is one of the key justifications used by these military leaders for overthrowing their democratic governments in the Sahel.
“Anti-French and Western rhetoric has been sustained and used to draw public sentiment against France in particular and the West in general.”
Maateuw Mbaye, protection and civic space officer at Article 19, an international NGO that promotes and protects freedom of expression and access to information across the world, said that while the task of reintegrating the junta-ruled states into ECOWAS is “complex” and “challenging,” it isn’t impossible.
“It will require a multifaceted approach, including diplomatic efforts, security cooperation, economic incentives, and international support,” Mr. Mbaye told The Epoch Times in an email.
“The likelihood of future cohabitation depends on the willingness of both sides to compromise and work toward common goals.”
He said the juntas’ decision to quit ECOWAS is a manifestation of “deep-seated” political disagreements and a lack of trust between the junta governments and ECOWAS.
“The Sahel region faces severe security challenges, including terrorism and insurgency,” Mr. Mbaye said.
“The juntas may argue that their approach to security is more effective, while ECOWAS may prioritize democratic governance as a path to stability.
“While the idea of a confederation has potential benefits, its feasibility is contingent on overcoming significant political, economic, and social challenges. Finding common ground on security strategies will be crucial.”
However, Olusegun Alabi, a political science lecturer at Osun State College of Education in Nigeria, blames ECOWAS’s leadership for what he terms the “very sloppy” and “reprehensible” way it handled the political crises in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
“It showed cockiness, lack of diplomatic finesse, and a flagrant disregard for the sovereignty of these states,” Mr. Alabi told The Epoch Times over the phone.
“I expected wide consultations, persuasions, conciliation, and arbitration rather than the threat of military action.
“The confederation is a child of necessity anyway. Time heals wounds. Sanity would be restored later. The political classes in each country will later show their usual cupid, antagonistic, and rudderless nature.”
