JOHANNESBURG—Attacks by jihadists affiliated with international terror groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS are spiking, according to security analysts, as France’s presence wanes in African countries where up until recently it wielded economic, military, and political influence.
“Territories previously controlled by French troops are now occupied by Islamic extremist groups who are trying to expand across the continent,” said Jasmine Opperman, a terrorism expert based in Pretoria, South Africa, with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).
United States-based ACLED collects information on the dates, actors, locations, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world.
Ms. Opperman told The Epoch Times: “For years now we’ve seen the Russians inciting anti-French sentiment in francophone Africa, blaming the French for the ‘evils of colonialism’ and Africa’s problems in general.
“Wagner Group agents continue to hand out Russian flags and pro-Russia and anti-French pamphlets to local populations to stir up violent protests and to get the French to leave. The strategy has worked and the French are leaving.”
She said the African Union (AU) and the international community had underestimated the “good work” French troops had done containing terrorists in francophone Africa, especially in the Sahel.
“Look, I’m not saying France is or was the answer to stopping terrorism in Africa, but its troops did give a measure of stability to many regions including parts of the Sahel,” said Ms. Opperman.
The Sahel is a vast semi-desert region between the Sahara and Africa’s savannah. It spans nine countries: Burkina Faso, Chad, Eritrea, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal and Sudan.
“Partly because of the French, the jihadists have been confined to pockets of territory. Now that the French are pulling out, and in some cases replaced by Russian mercenaries, we see extremists spreading across areas where they previously had little to no influence,” Ms. Opperman explained.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington described the Sahel as a “hotbed” of Islamic extremist organizations. These included the Macina Liberation Front, linked to both al-Qaeda and the “Islamic State of the Greater Sahara.”
In 2022, said the center, there were 4,839 casualties ascribed to extremist violence in the Sahel, a 70 percent increase from the previous year. It said this spike marked the sixth consecutive year of rising rates of violence.
“The data shows that France did not succeed in stopping fundamentalist attacks in the Sahel and elsewhere. But I’d argue that without the French, the attacks would have been far worse and much more widespread,” said Ms. Opperman.
Ms. Opperman said local and Western intelligence agencies were bolstering their capacities in West and Central Africa, and the Sahel region, in an effort to “counteract jihadist expansionism.”
“As the French withdraw, governments in Europe and especially the United States realize they simply must ensure they have a bigger footprint in francophone Africa and in areas like the Sahel.
“They know, of course, that the jihadists plus Russia, cannot be allowed free reign. This would run completely contrary to Washington’s recent attempts to be a strong presence in Africa.”
But, Ms. Opperman said, the terrorists were hitting back by means of a “campaign of fear” based on kidnapping locals.
“Groups such as JNIM (Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin) used to abduct foreigners for ransom, to boost their finances. But what’s happening now is the terrorists seem more focused on sowing fear among locals by kidnapping, torturing them, and sometimes executing them.
“In part, it’s a strategy designed to prevent locals from cooperating with local and Western intelligence,” said the analyst.
JNIM is a militant jihadist organization operating in North and West Africa, and now also in the Sahel, and has connections with the Saharan branch of al-Qaeda.
France was once Africa’s greatest colonial power, controlling much of the central, western, and north-western parts of the continent. French remains an official language in 29 of Africa’s 54 countries.
French President Emmanuel Macron said last week his 1,500 troops had started “disengaging” from Niger, where they had been fighting Islamist insurgents in the Sahel region for a decade.
A military junta seized power in Niger in July, with the new rulers making it clear France was no longer welcome.
Dr. Craig Moffat, who analyses security threats in Africa for Good Governance Africa, a think-tank based in Johannesburg, told The Epoch Times President Macron’s decision to pull out of Niger was the “final nail in the coffin” of an era of French military intervention in the West African Sahel region.
Two French diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Epoch Times Paris’ recent troop withdrawals from Burkina Faso and Mali—together with the unfolding pull-out from Niger—showed France needed to “adapt” to a “new” Africa.
“We are not wanted anymore, even when we do good,” said one.
“Many African nations now seem to want to do business with China and Russia. We speak Africa’s language in more ways than one, and we’re committed to the war against extremists, but it’s clear Africans don’t want our help.
“We’ve made mistakes but we’ve tried to be a positive presence and we’ve been here at the request of African governments themselves, fighting terrorism alongside local government forces. We believe we have achieved a lot of success.”
They said almost 7,000 French troops remained in Africa, with most in Chad, Gabon, Ivory Coast, and Senegal, but that their continued presence was “highly uncertain.”
“We are very concerned about what will happen in those places if our troops leave because our forces have been doing a lot to counter the extremists,” said one of the diplomats.
Pierre Haroche, lecturer in international relations and international security at the Queen Mary University of London, told The Epoch Times the “model of France as Africa’s policeman” was over.
“It was easy for the juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, accompanied by Russia, to instigate anti-French feeling.
“Their messages fell on willing ears and once you have entire populations against you, plus local armies, it’s time to get out.
“I think if France is to continue having a presence in Africa, it must be primarily through the EU (European Union),” said Mr. Haroche.
Guy Martin, military analyst at Defence Web, an online portal that studies military-related matters in Africa, told The Epoch Times closure of French army bases in Africa and troop withdrawal was “not going down well” with Paris’ military establishment.
“France has been using Africa as a military training ground since 1830 when it colonized Algeria.
“The rise of jihadism and terrorism in Africa has afforded Paris a great opportunity to ensure its troops are always combat-ready because they’re fighting terrorists all the time and busy with complex combat operations.
“So, in essence, troop withdrawal from Africa means France will no longer have a fighting army, and no longer able to exercise some hard power in the international sphere,” he said.
Mr. Moffat said France’s declining power in Africa was clearly also “very disturbing” to Paris’ political classes.
“Opposition parties have pressured Macron to agree to a parliamentary debate about his government’s policy in the Sahel; it’ll probably happen in November,” he said.
Mr. Martin’s analysis was that the French military had achieved important, but ultimately limited, successes against Islamic insurgents in Africa.
He used Mali as an example, saying the French campaign there started well in 2013 when troops recaptured towns and cities and began training the Malian army and providing it with specialized air and ground technologies.
“Together with the French, the Malian army became quite a formidable force. The French operation extended across the Sahel, with permanent bases in Chad and Niger. But the terrorists relocated and regrouped and their attacks continued,” Mr. Martin explained.
He added: “I think it’s unfair to call France’s military interventions in Africa a failure.
“Yes; maybe the French were naive in thinking they could make a big dent in extremism. But you cannot achieve this when local conditions— poverty, government corruption, and the inability and unwillingness of African leaders to develop their own people—are always going to swell the ranks of terrorist organizations.”
Mr. Martin said it was also “extremely difficult for any force” to conduct successful counterterrorism operations.
“It’s war, so the French had to kill and capture insurgents. Then, they had to win hearts and minds to at least temper sympathies for the terrorists among local populations.
“Even for the greatest of counterinsurgency powers, this is no easy task. But to expect a former colonial power to pull this off was always asking a bit much.”
Mr. Haroche said France’s presence in Mali was doomed from the moment army officers launched a successful coup in May 2021.
Paris called for democracy to return to Mali, and then said the military junta was “unwilling” to solve the country’s security crisis.
The junta hit back, accusing the Macron administration of violating an agreement not to “interfere in the political affairs” of Mali. The military rulers then announced they had “no choice” but to seek other security partners.
Cue the entrance of Wagner mercenaries in December 2021.
“That’s what we’re seeing across several regions of West and Central Africa right now: As soon as there’s a security void, as soon as Western forces leave, groups like Islamic State fill the gap, and then Wagner fighters are called in, supposedly to destroy the jihadists, but of course the Russians are always focused on filling their own coffers as well by taking over gold mines, for example,” said Ms. Opperman.
The last of President Macron’s 2,400 troops in Mali left in August last year.
Mr. Haroche said France’s counterinsurgency operations in Africa had always been unpopular among the French people.
“They think it costs too much, and isn’t worth it,” he explained. “The French operation in Mali, Operation Barkhane, was the longest and most expensive French military operation since World War II.”
Mr. Moffat said: “Whether or not you think French interventions in Africa have been successful, it’s African states themselves saying they want greater control over their security and governance responsibilities.
“Of course, some of them say that and then the first thing they do is contract the Wagner Group. But Western powers have no control over that.”
Boubacar Ba, an expert in international law and conflict resolution at the National School of Administration in Bamako, agreed.
“Africa must lead itself away from the notion that the West, and other foreign powers for that matter, always has the answers to our problems,” he told The Epoch Times.
“In Mali, the French refused to negotiate with the jihadists but our approach is always to negotiate.”
When President Macron was re-elected in April 2022, he said it was time for Paris to “rethink all our [military] postures on the African continent.”
Soon afterward, it became clear what that “rethink” entailed, said Mr. Martin, with France downsizing its permanent bases in Gabon, Senegal, and Ivory Coast.
The reality now, said the analyst, was that France’s shrinking military presence in Africa was creating a “kind of geopolitical magnet” for China and Russia.
“It cannot end well,” he said.
