With Israel gaining most of its objectives against Hamas in Gaza, it’s sending signs that an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon will follow.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a TV interview on June 23 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was close to completing its ground offensive into Rafah in southern Gaza.
While the Hamas war wouldn’t be over, he said, Israel would need fewer troops there, freeing them up to fight Hezbollah.
Mr. Netanyahu faces pressure from every side.
Israel has endured months of steady rocket and drone attacks from Hezbollah, which experts say has more than 100,000 missiles.
More than 60,000 Israelis were evacuated from the north and have not been able to go home.
Sending troops against Hezbollah would be “first and foremost for defense,” Mr. Netanyahu said, but would also allow the displaced to return home.
The Lebanese Shia terrorist group, which controls south Lebanon, has steadily raised the pressure with more rocketing since early May.
The United States is pressuring Mr. Netanyahu for less of an offensive or none at all and to seek diplomatic negotiations.
Air Force Gen. C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on June 23 that an Israeli incursion into Lebanon would significantly raise the chance that Iran, Hezbollah’s patron, would join in and broaden the war.
A Lebanon offensive “can drive up the potential for a broader conflict,” he said.
“Hezbollah is more capable than Hamas as far as overall capability, number [of] rockets and the like,” Gen. Brown said.
“I would see Iran more inclined to provide greater support to Hezbollah.”
Some in Israel say the IDF is waiting until after Mr. Netanyahu’s address to Congress scheduled for July 24, Sarit Zehavi told The Epoch Times. Ms. Zehavi retired as a lieutenant colonel from IDF military intelligence and founded the Alma Center, a strategic institute specializing in Israel’s northern frontier.
Such a wait would be a mistake, Elliot Chodoff, a reserve IDF major and author of many tactical manuals, told The Epoch Times.
He also taught political science and lectured on terrorism at Haifa University for 25 years.
Israel, if it intends to go ahead, now faces a ticking clock.
Every day that it delays starting the offensive brings it a day closer to autumn rains and other bad weather that would impede both a ground war and the air support it would require, according to Mr. Chodoff.
Tracked vehicles such as tanks can get stuck in the mud, he said, while artillery and planes lose effectiveness when visibility is poor.
“Waiting doesn’t do us any good at this point,” Mr. Chodoff said.
And delay in going on the offensive merely emboldens Hezbollah to attack more, he said, as they are convinced that Israel won’t respond. That ups the damage and casualty toll in Israel and puts even more pressure on the government to do something.
Mr. Chodoff and Ms. Zehavi, who both live a few miles south of the Lebanese border, said residents weren’t seeing signs that an offensive was imminent, such as increased troop movements.
That was likely because Israel’s forces have already been in place in the north for some time, they each explained.
Mr. Chodoff said six brigades, each of a few thousand men, were called up last week for 40 days of duty.
They were all units that had already served 150 days in Gaza.
The 40-day designation isn’t a hard limit but signals that the IDF is getting ready to act, perhaps within a week, according to Mr. Chodoff.
Israel’s air force doesn’t have to relocate to accommodate a northern offensive, but moving units such as artillery is more complicated and thus a commitment, he said.
The IDF takes seriously the need to support those doing the fighting and doesn’t want to be doing it on two fronts, Mr. Chodoff said.
Otherwise, if both fronts require air support, military leaders would have to decide who gets it and who doesn’t.
The recent operation to free four hostages held in two houses in Gaza had “a huge amount of combat support,” he said.
Mr. Chodoff said he thought the IDF had performed “brilliantly” in Rafah and that none of the calamities many predicted, such as massive civilian casualties, had taken place.
Ms. Zehavi agreed that any delay, such as waiting a month for Mr. Netanyahu’s trip to Washington, would merely allow Hezbollah to continue its escalation.
She said Hezbollah has upped its launching of drones against Israel in the north since early May.
Drones can be stopped, but Israel’s interception rate is lower.
Hamas and Hezbollah have successfully waged a war of attrition against Israel.
The Jewish state has been willing to end the war and deal with it diplomatically, according to Ms. Zehavi, but Hezbollah has consistently refused, saying it won’t agree to a cease-fire unless there’s a cease-fire in Gaza.
“I don’t think we imagined that it would last that long in Gaza,” she said. “Things took too long in Gaza because we were trying to get a deal for the hostages.
“Clearly, Hamas was trying just to buy some time, and it succeeded.”
Speaking as a resident of northern Israel, Ms. Zehavi said she would not feel an increased sense of security even if Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire, because such a deal would likely allow Hezbollah to retain its military capabilities and later initiate an attack.
Northern Israel residents fear that in the event of an Israeli offensive, Hezbollah will cut loose with its formidable arsenal and intensify the rocket and drone war even more, she said.
And Ms. Zehavi fears that Hezbollah will counter an Israeli offensive by moving into Israel on the ground, not just with rocket fire.
Some Hezbollah units are designed to defend south Lebanon, but others were designed to attack Israel, she said.
Hezbollah’s goal isn’t to defend Lebanon but to take it over and establish an Islamic state there, according to Ms. Zehavi.
Sending elite units into Israel would force the IDF to stretch its forces to defend against that.
“Israel is much more prepared than it used to be on Oct. 6,” she said, “so probably the result will be different.”
Israel’s rapid move on Oct. 7, 2023, to bolster the northern frontier with tens of thousands of troops was one thing that the IDF got right that day, Mr. Chodoff said.
He said invading during good weather was more of a factor in Lebanon than in Gaza because of the terrain.
The area was more open and had smaller populated areas, lending itself to more conventional ground warfare.
However, Ms. Zehavi said Hezbollah has embedded itself in south Lebanon’s towns and that urban warfare will be required to dislodge it.
