Last month’s collapse of the Syrian government has prompted fears that the ISIS terrorist group, which overran much of the country a decade ago, could make a comeback.
“History shows how quickly moments of promise can descend into conflict and violence,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a day after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime—and army—collapsed last month.
“ISIS will try to use this period to reestablish its capabilities,” he added.
According to Ambassador Matthew Bryza, a former White House and senior State Department official, the group’s ability to mount a comeback “will depend on how—and whether—the new Syrian government can consolidate its authority and field a new national military force able to ensure security.”
An ideological offshoot of Al-Qaeda, ISIS overran vast swathes of Syria—along with much of neighboring Iraq—in the period from 2014 to 2017.
By 2019, the group’s presence in Syria had been largely eradicated by a U.S.-led coalition working alongside Washington’s local Kurdish allies.
In that year, U.S. forces killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in northwestern Syria on the orders of then-president, now President-elect Donald Trump.
US Presence in Syria
On Dec. 8, the Syrian regime collapsed in the face of a Turkey-backed rebel offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization.On the very same day, the U.S. military conducted dozens of airstrikes against what it described as “ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps” in central Syria.
A week later, the U.S. military carried out a fresh round of strikes, which killed a dozen members of ISIS, according to CENTCOM.
For the past decade, the United States has kept a sizeable military presence in eastern and northeastern Syria, currently estimated at some 2,000 troops.
The deployment is part of a U.S.-led coalition tasked with defeating ISIS.
In 2019, during his first term as president, Trump vowed to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria—a promise that ultimately failed to materialize.
At the time, Trump’s pledge drew fierce criticism from his domestic political opponents, who accused him of abandoning Washington’s Kurdish allies.
“We still have some work to do in terms of keeping a foot on the throat of ISIS,” he told The Associated Press on Jan. 9.
According to Austin, U.S. forces are also needed to secure a string of detention camps in northeastern Syria in which thousands of former ISIS fighters—and their families—are being held.
‘International Problem’
Tens of thousands of people are being held in the camps, which are currently run by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led group supported by Washington.Austin said that SDF members could eventually be “absorbed” into Syria’s military under the country’s new leadership.
“Then Syria would own all the [detention] camps and, hopefully, keep control of them,” he said.
“People detained following the territorial defeat of [ISIS] … are facing systematic violations and dying in large numbers due to inhumane conditions,” the report states.
The detention camps and their inmates, most of whom are foreign nationals, have caused friction between the United States and its allies.
Since the extirpation of ISIS in 2019, Washington has urged its partners to repatriate their citizens who are still being held in the detention camps.
“Any nation which wishes to be seen as a serious ally and friend of the most powerful nation in the world should act in a fashion that reflects that serious commitment,” Gorka told the newspaper on Jan. 8.
A British government spokesman responded by saying that London’s priority was to “ensure the safety and security of the UK.”
According to Bryza, there are only two ways to solve what he described as a “terribly complex situation.”
“The first is that they [detainees] remain in those camps forever,” Bryza told The Epoch Times. “The second is that they be repatriated.”
“Gorka’s demand that the UK take back its nationals, along with other countries whose citizens are being held in the camps, is logical,” he said.
“Because the only other alternative is leaving them there forever,” he added.
Ayhan Doganer, a former Turkish diplomat who previously served in both Syria and Lebanon, described the issue as an “international problem,” the resolution of which “will not be easy.”
Using another force to guard the camps—instead of the U.S.-backed SDF—“would only solve the problem temporarily,” Doganer told The Epoch Times.
Shared Ideologies
Further complicating the situation, HTS, Syria’s new de facto ruler, is ideologically descended from ISIS.How this will affect Western efforts to combat ISIS in Syria remains open to question, according to experts.
“The fact that HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa was previously a member of Al-Qaeda and the Nusra Front, which worked with ISIS, has certainly hindered Western confidence in the [HTS] group,” Bryza said.
“But I also believe that al-Sharaa has broken with his past,” he added, pointing out that HTS “subsequently fought against Al-Qaeda and ISIS.”
“Nobody knows how sincere they are,” Bryza continued. “But they’ve paid with their blood, and in some cases their lives, fighting Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Syria.”
Ultimately, he said, HTS’s commitment to a democratic Syria “will be judged by its actions.”
According to Doganer, HTS, ISIS, and Al-Qaeda all hail from the same “Salafist and Takfiri ideology.”
“Although Ahmed al-Sharaa is a revisionist, the situation may be different for HTS’s components,” he said.
“Al-Sharaa’s shift toward moderation risks alienating hardline factions within HTS, potentially sparking internal dissent,” he added.
“It will be a long process for HTS to gain the trust of the West,” added Doganer, who currently works as a senior analyst at the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies.
