Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his entourage died in a helicopter crash in East Azarbaijan Province, in the northwest of the country on May 19, according to a statement released by Iran’s cabinet on Monday.
“We assure our loyal and appreciative and beloved nation that the path of service will continue with the tireless spirit of Ayatollah Raisi, the hero and the servant of the nation and the faithful friend of the leadership,” the Iranian cabinet said in the statement.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, the governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, other officials, and bodyguards were also killed in the crash, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei approved Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, as the temporary president on Monday.
Mr. Mokhber will preside over a temporary council until a new president is elected.
Article 131 of Iran’s constitution states: “In the event of the death, removal, resignation, absence or illness of the president for more than two months, or in the event that the term of the presidency has ended and the new president has not yet been elected due to obstacles or other such matters, the vice president assumes powers and responsibilities with the approval of the Supreme leader. A council consisting of the speaker of the parliament, the head of the judiciary, and the vice president is obliged to arrange for a new president to be elected within 50 days at the latest.”
Burzine Waghmar, a member of the Centre for Iranian Studies, at the University of London’s school of oriental and African studies, told The Epoch Times in an email that, as per Article 131, Mr. Mokhber must convene a “temporary presidential council” consisting of himself as vice president, the chief of the judiciary, and the parliament speaker. Elections for the next president must then be held within 50 days.
Sham Elections
Experts, however, cautioned that the elections in Iran are mostly a sham, with the real power to elect a president being held by the supreme leader and his 12-member “Guardian Council,” which is constitutionally appointed and has the mandate to approve or disqualify candidates seeking to run in local, parliamentary, presidential, or Assembly of Experts elections.Hamid Bahrami, a Europe-based geo-political analyst of Iranian origin, told The Epoch Times in a phone call that the regime will have a serious problem replacing Mr. Raisi as he was popular among hardliners who were united under his leadership.
“If Khamenei wants to continue his foreign and domestic policies, the current speaker of the parliament [Mohammad Ghalibaf] is an option but many hardliners hate him and he is known for corruption. And if Khamenei wants to change the direction, Ali Larijani, former speaker of the Parliament of Iran is an optimal option,” Mr. Bahrami said.
Mr. Waghmar said Mr. Ghalibaf is politically ambitious and was known to harbor presidential ambitions when Mr. Raisi was alive.
“So Khamenei could eventually ask Ghalibaf in order to avoid an election at a time of socio-economic crisis when the Islamic Republic’s credibility is truly at its nadir, both home and abroad,” he said.
There should be no expectations of any change in foreign policy as Iran’s hardline resistance to the “powers of global arrogance, the West” will continue, according to Mr. Waghmar.
“Khamenei will continue having a final say on this even after a new foreign minister is appointed since FM Abdollahian’s death is now confirmed too in the same helicopter,” he said.
Impact on Khamenei’s Succession
Experts also said that Mr. Raisi was a favorite to be the supreme leader’s successor, and with his death, Mr. Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, has no competition left.“[The] bad news for opponents [US, Israel, and dissidents] is he was a strong rival to Mojtaba over succeeding Supreme leadership,” said Mr. Bahrami while adding that Mojtaba Khamenei’s supporters call him a “genius” and a “pan-Iranist.” The latter means that he advocates for solidarity and reunification of Iranian people living on the Iranian plateau and in other regions that have significant Iranian cultural influence, he explained.
Mr. Waghmar said that it was expected that Mr. Raisi, an ardent loyalist to the current supreme leader, would eventually step into the supreme leader’s post and that the presidency was a “dress rehearsal.”
“That option, long rumored by diplomats and others in Tehran, [is] now off the table,” he said, adding that 85-year-old Khamenei realizes he does not have much time left.
His son was also rumored to be supported by the Qom coterie of clerics, which Mr. Waghmar described as an important pressure group in Iranian politics.
“Though this is problematic since he isn’t, theologically, qualified to fill the post held by Khomenei,” said Mr. Waghmar. “But Mojtaba can only be protected by his father so long as Khamenei is still alive.”
The expert says that after Khamenei’s death, the Supreme Leadership Council could propose that there is nobody of his stature to carry out the role and that several qualified religious jurisprudents might fulfill this need instead.
“Whatever pans out, the IRGC [the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] will have more than a final say in the jockeying that is already underway as the Khamenei era of Iran’s Second Republic draws to a close,” he said.
