Iranian Missile Attack Leaves Region on Edge, Wondering What Comes Next

People visit the site of the remains of an Iranian missile in the Negev desert near Arad in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel. Israel vowed to make Iran 'pay' for firing a barrage of missiles at its territory, with Tehran warning on Oct. 2 it would launch an even bigger attack if it is targeted. Menahem Kahana/AFP

Iran ratcheted up tensions throughout the Middle East on Oct. 1 as its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired about 180 ballistic missiles at targets across Israel. Now military planners, diplomats, and foreign policy analysts are trying to gauge how Israel can respond and how much further Iran is prepared to escalate.

Israel reported intercepting many of the Iranian ballistic missiles, with help from the United States, the UK, France, and Jordan. Still, some of the missiles struck locations in Israel.

Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, assessed that more than 30 of the Iranian missiles hit the Nevatim Airbase. He shared a satellite photo taken on Oct. 4 pinpointing suspected missile impact craters along the flight lines and on buildings across the base.

Decker Eveleth, an analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses who worked with Lewis on the damage assessment, said several of the missiles landed near hangers housing Israeli F-35 stealth fighter jets, with one possible direct hit.

The full extent of the damage from the Iranian strike could not immediately be independently verified.

“There were hits at the Nevatim and Tel Nof Airbases, but they did not damage planes or the operational systems of the [Israeli Air Force],” Israel Defense Forces spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in an Oct. 5 statement.

Hagari said Israeli fighter jets continued to operate during and immediately after the Iranian attack.

Iran’s Calculus

The Oct. 1 attack marks the second time Iranian forces have targeted Israel with a missile attack this year. Iran launched about 120 ballistic missiles, more than 30 slower-moving cruise missiles, and about 170 one-way attack drones at Israel on April 13.

While the overall number of munitions in the April 13 barrage was larger, the Oct. 1 attack featured more ballistic missiles.

The missile attack was launched just hours after Israeli ground forces entered southern Lebanon in search of Hezbollah—an Iran-aligned Shia Islamist paramilitary faction designated as a terrorist organization by roughly two dozen nations, including Israel and the United States.

Michael DiMino, the public policy manager at Defense Priorities, assessed that if the severity of the April 13 Iranian barrage was a three or four on a scale of one to 10, the Oct. 1 barrage was a six.

“I don’t think the goal of the [Oct. 1 Iranian] attack was some kind of massive, sustained bombardment, or some kind of sea change,” DiMino said during an Oct. 2 panel discussion on the attack.

“I think they were trying to send a bit stronger message, but not to a wildly different degree.”

The IRGC stated that the Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack was in retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh—a leader of the Palestinian Hamas terrorist group, who was in Tehran in July—and for a Sept. 27 Israeli air strike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan. Israel didn’t claim responsibility for Haniyeh’s death. Iran and Hamas stated that Israel was behind the blast.

Israeli air defense system fires to intercept missiles over Hadera, Israel, on Oct. 1, 2024. Ariel Schalit/AP Photo

DiMino said the fact that the IRGC cast its Oct. 1 attack as a response to multiple alleged Israeli attacks indicates that Iranian leadership is wary of an escalating tit-for-tat conflict with Israel.

“If you look at their strategic calculus, that to me would suggest that they really are trying to de-escalate,” DiMino said.

Kirsten Fontenrose, a nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, assessed that Iran was trying to respond to Israeli operations targeting Iran’s regional partners and proxies while hoping to limit the blowback from its actions.

“Iran was careful to stress that this attack targeted only military sites,” Fontenrose said for an Oct. 2 Atlantic Council assessment. “Tehran hopes that Israel will feel compelled to similarly focus its response.”

The Iranian mission to the United Nations stated that the Oct. 1 attack was a “legal, rational, and legitimate response” to past Israeli actions and informed the U.N. when it finished firing its missiles.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres criticized the attack during an Oct. 2 U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss rising tensions across the Middle East.

“As I did in relation to the Iranian attack in April ... I again strongly condemn yesterday’s massive missile attack by Iran on Israel,” Guterres said.

The United States, joined by Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK—collectively known as the Group of Seven nations—also denounced the Oct. 1 attack “in the strongest terms” in an Oct. 3 statement.

Israel’s Potential Response

The Oct. 1 missile attack has left the region waiting to see how Israel will respond.

“This evening, Iran made a big mistake—and it will pay for it,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed in a statement just hours after the attack. “The regime in Tehran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to exact a price from our enemies.”

A youth checks the rubble of a destroyed building in Hod HaSharon in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel on Oct. 2, 2024. Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) was among the first to propose retaliatory Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities and urged President Joe Biden “to coordinate an overwhelming response with Israel.”

Biden has said that he has been in discussions about strikes on Iranian facilities but hasn’t committed to any specific action.

On the other hand, Biden was adamantly opposed to talk of Israel striking Iranian nuclear facilities.

“The answer is no,” the president said.

Thus far, the Biden administration has affirmed Israel has a right to respond and has urged restraint.

“We don’t want to see any action that would lead to a full-blown regional war,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said at an Oct. 2 press briefing.

The IRGC has vowed further “heavy attacks” if Israel does respond to its Oct. 1 barrage.

As a de-escalatory step, Israel may retaliate against Iran without much fanfare.

“I think what the Israelis tend to do to get off the escalation ladder is to do something that is intelligence-enabled or covert actions, and that they don’t have to claim it, and then they can sort of, you know, act like the score is settled,” DiMino said.

He noted that Israel never claimed responsibility for a series of blasts in the Iranian city of Isfahan on April 19, just days after Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel. Iran downplayed the severity of the attack, and the tensions between the two nations subsided for a time.

“I think the Israelis could do something similar, again, where they use that, basically, as their off-ramp, without having to explicitly state that,” DiMino said.

Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, on April 19, 2024, in this screengrab taken from video. West Asia News Agency via Reuters

The IRGC, on Oct. 8, reported an explosion sounded in Isfahan overnight and insisted this was the result of a defense system test, not “enemy aggression.”

If the Israeli response is still forthcoming, the wait could prove costly for Iran.

Fontenrose said that waiting “forces Iran to expend the manpower and resources to sustain a heightened defensive posture.” While Iran takes up heightened defenses, Fontenrose assessed that it will have less bandwidth to assist its regional partners, such as Hezbollah.

“Iran must now choose whether to sit back and watch its prize proxy be surgically disassembled or take more action and invite the kind of response some of Israel’s leaders would like an excuse to deliver,” she said.