NEW DELHI—Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia on July 8 and 9 in his first state visit since assuming office last month for a third consecutive term.
It was also Mr. Modi’s first trip to Moscow since the start of the Ukraine war. The visit raised questions in the West about India’s stance on the war. On the other hand, analysts said it’s part of a strategy that aims to keep Russia away from complete reliance on China.
“Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia highlights India’s strategic balancing act in maintaining strong ties with Moscow amid increasing relations between Russia and China, the ongoing Ukraine conflict, and shifting global alliances,” Nishakant Ojha, a New Delhi-based geopolitical analyst who has served in various foreign missions for India, said in an interview with The Epoch Times.
Back in India, five soldiers lost their lives in an ambush by militants in the northern region of Jammu just hours after Mr. Modi arrived in Moscow. The region has seen a recent increase in such attacks.
Amid a complex geopolitical situation, India’s strategic partnership with the United States has seen rapid growth, while its relationship with Russia—which has traditionally been New Delhi’s defense partner—has been on a downslide, particularly since the Ukraine war began, analysts say.
“Despite Western efforts to isolate Putin, countries like China, India, and various nations in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America continue to engage with Russia, with trade figures showing growth,” Mr. Ojha said.
Mr. Modi’s visit to Moscow sparked widespread outrage on social media.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described Mr. Modi’s visit as “huge disappointment and a blow to peace efforts.”
From an Indian perspective, Mr. Modi’s visit to Russia doesn’t constitute any kind of messaging for the West, according to Pathikrit Payne, senior research fellow at the New Delhi-based Dr. Syama Prasad Mookerjee Research Foundation.
“Modi went to the G7 Summit even before this visit. However, it is the West that has to come out of the binary mindset that either someone is with them or against them,” Mr. Payne told The Epoch Times.
Calling For an End to War
The West, including the United States, has called on India to condemn Russia for the Ukraine offensive. Although India has refrained from making any such specific statements, it has called for an end to the war.During his trip to Moscow, without pointing any fingers directly, Mr. Modi called the death of children “heart wrenching.”
“Whether it is war, conflict, or terror attacks, everyone who believes in humanity is pained when there is loss of lives,” Mr. Modi said.
“But when innocent children are killed, when we see innocent children dying, it is heart-wrenching and that pain is immense.”
In speaking of a “terror attack,” Mr. Ojha said Mr. Modi was sending a message to Pakistan, which India accuses of sponsoring terrorism on its soil, including the recent violence in Jammu.
“Possibilities cannot be ruled out for any military operation against Pakistan and enemy countries [in the future],” Mr. Ojha said.
“There is convergence between Russia and India on unequivocally condemning all kinds of terrorism,” Mr. Payne said.
Akhil Ramesh, head of the India Program at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum, told The Epoch Times in an email that there are two aspects of the bilateral relationship at play in the current context: “defense and Cold War era relationships.”
In this context, he said, “India’s relationship with Russia is witnessing a slow death, making it important for Modi to reassure Putin that he is not abandoning the relationship.”
The Indian prime minister’s visit, his first in five years, is intended to do just that, Mr. Ramesh said.
He said that defense ties had underpinned the India–Russia relationship for many decades.
“However, India’s diversification, ‘Make in India’ plans, and Russia’s own challenges with supplying on time due to its war in Ukraine, have made what was supposedly the strongest pillar in Moscow–Delhi ties a weak one,” he said.
Mr. Modi is navigating a complex relationship with Russia, while at the same time trying to strengthen security ties with Western nations, according to Mr. Ojha.
“The Ukraine war has intensified scrutiny of India’s ties with Russia, with Western allies urging India to condemn the invasion and pressure the Kremlin,” he said.
“We would urge India, as we do any country when it engages with Russia, to make clear that any resolution to the conflict in Ukraine needs to be one that respects the U.N. charter, that respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Ukraine’s sovereignty,” Mr. Miller said.
Mr. Payne said that India “remains as perhaps” the only crucial nation maintaining a functional relationship with both Russia and the West.
The China Factor
Analysts pointed to another factor in Mr. Modi’s Moscow visit: Indian concerns that Western pressure on Russia is pushing it into the Chinese communist regime’s camp, a move that works against India’s interests.“India is wary of Western pressure potentially pushing Russia closer to China, believing that a weakened Russia more dependent on China could disrupt the multipolar world India seeks,” Mr. Ojha said.
“Concerns in New Delhi are rising over the strengthening Russia–China ties amid the Ukraine conflict, fearing a formal alliance that could challenge India’s strategic interests. Given the territorial disputes and competitive dynamics between India and China, a strong Russia–China partnership poses significant geopolitical risks for India.”
India and China share a massive border along Xinjiang and Tibet. Military tensions between the two countries reached a record high after the bloody Galwan conflict in June 2020, while bilateral relations slid.
“In the wake of the war, despite China claiming neutrality, trade between the two countries has surged, with the country becoming a crucial market for Russian energy exports amidst Western sanctions,” Mr. Pant said.
Military and defense ties between the two nations have grown as well, he said, although China is in the “driver’s seat” in the relationship.
The China–Russia relationship is not only affecting international politics in light of Moscow’s and Beijing’s joint stance against the West, Mr. Pant said; it is also becoming a “tricky position” for India.
Managing the China–Russia axis will be the most significant foreign policy challenge for India in coming years, he said.
“It alters India’s strategic outlook in fundamental ways. Given India’s continuing reliance on Russian military hardware, closer Sino–Russian ties might influence the terms and conditions of these transactions, potentially limiting India’s access to advanced technologies or altering the balance of military support,” Mr. Pant said.
Mr. Ramesh noted that several members of the Indian security and defense community have criticized India’s friendship with Russia, citing Moscow’s strong ties to Beijing.
At the same time, the defense chief said that “the geopolitical importance of Russia will go down in times to come.”
Further, as the China–Russia energy trade reaches a record high, Mr. Pant said that India is also concerned about increased competition for Russian oil and gas, affecting global prices and supply stability.
However, Mr. Ramesh believes that Mr. Modi will avoid explicitly addressing the China issue with Russia.
“That said, it is in New Delhi’s interest to not totally abandon Russia for it to fully move into China’s orbit. New Delhi would like to offer Moscow the option to reduce its overreliance on China,” he said.
It’s important to note that the China–Russia relationship is more of a tactical partnership than a formal alliance, with China benefiting more, according to Mr. Ojha.
“Their trade ties, while strong, do not necessarily imply a reliable alliance, similar to China’s trade relations with ASEAN nations, Australia, Japan, and the U.S.,” he said.
However Mr. Pant believes that a Sino–Russian economic collaboration might sideline India in regional infrastructure projects and trade routes. On the global stage, it also threatens Indian influence in regional forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS.
The political grouping, originally made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, now includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates.
“New Delhi’s ability to navigate a seemingly multipolar world will be tested” as a result of the emerging configuration, Mr. Pant said, “necessitating a careful recalibration of its foreign policy to maintain a balance between major powers, while simultaneously safeguarding its national interests.”
