NEW DELHI—Amid growing antagonism toward China’s communist regime, the Indian leader’s recent trip to the United States was considered a landmark geopolitical event by some observers.
However, the strengthening bilateral relations between the United States and India are dynamic and complicated, and China isn’t the only factor determining it, according to experts.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States highlighted his leadership, the U.S.-India strategic partnership, and business deals between both nations.
Experts told The Epoch Times that the underlying thread to the evolved bilateral ties is shared values and shared threats, while domestic politics has also played a role in shaping the bonhomie between Modi and U.S. leaders, whether it’s President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.
“The U.S.-India relationship is, to a large extent, built on the foundation of shared values and threats,” Akhil Ramesh, a senior resident fellow at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum, told The Epoch Times in an email. “The relationship is often criticized for not growing at expected rates but looking at the relationship in a silo, trade, and defense ties have grown exponentially over the last two decades.”
Ramesh believes India is a powerful regional balancer for the United States in the Indian Ocean with certain unique factors not offered by any partner before.
“The recurring criticism of American allies in Europe and East Asia is their reliance on the U.S. to protect their own sovereign territories. India is the exact opposite, and for many defense and strategic experts (particularly in the realism and restraint community) who do not want to lift the burden of foreign nations, India is a dream come true,” said Ramesh.
India prefers no U.S. presence on its shores, according to Ramesh, while the United States offers India the technology and capital so it could become part of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
“And more importantly, the [United States offers] advanced and critical technology required to defend itself against Chinese aggression,” said Ramesh.
China’s Not the Only Factor
Experts believe it’s not China alone that motivates India-U.S. relations. The massive Indian market and the domestic politics in India and the United States also play a role in the bilateral ties.Ramesh said that India recently surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, which is of interest to the larger U.S. economy.
“The favorable demographics (ages 18–35) and the large population make the Indian market an attractive one for all businesses seeking expansion and [are] vital for ones that have either hit saturation at home or have been expelled from other large markets such as China (think Silicon Valley tech),” said Ramesh.
Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, told The Epoch Times on June 21 that Modi is very popular with the 5-million-strong Indian diaspora in the United States and his visit will help him during India’s 2024 national election and will help Biden in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
“This is the Democrats trying to create one state visit. State visits are very good like they realized both for Anthony Albanese in Australia and for Boris Johnson! This entire show, this thing worked really well. ... So they are looking to get some votes before the election for Biden,” said Iyer-Mitra.
“If you notice the voting numbers, more Indians voted for Trump than ever before,” said Iyer-Mitra.
Blinken’s China trip was initially scheduled for February, but it was delayed due to the Chinese spy balloon incident.
Iyer-Mitra called Blinken’s “formulation” of words “wrong” and said it was a “green light” given to the Chinese regime to invade Taiwan.
“Countries, even though they like to focus on China, they are bogged down by their respective rationales, which is a practical threat. You prioritize the threat over the strategic threat, which is a game China plays. You know, you can’t escape China’s manufacturing or antagonize China completely,” he said.
Trade between the United States and China was $690 billion in 2022, and between India and China, it was $135.9 billion in the same period. Iyer-Mitra expressed cynicism about New Delhi and Washington doing anything concrete to contain China.
“This is just showing that India and America can deal with China if they want to, but I don’t think either of us has the willpower to do it,” he said.
And yet he feels Beijing took Modi’s trip to the United States seriously, as indicated by the Chinese state-run media that tried to downplay the event.
Situation Has Turned Around
Russia was India’s main weapons supplier. In the old world order, India allied with Russia, while the United States was closer to Pakistan, which was determined by a convergence of interests. With the emergence of an aggressive Chinese regime that increasingly threatens the United States and the free world it leads, the situation has turned around with India and the United States working together while China, Pakistan, and Russia form an asymmetric alliance, said experts.Dr. Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Insititute, told The Epoch Times that in the earlier matrix of geopolitical convergence, Russia was India’s main defense partner, and today, despite Russians saying that their relationship isn’t impacted by India-U.S. bilateral ties, the Indo-Russia relation has changed and is marred by the reality of a new world order.
“After the Cold War, Russia started to export weapons to China, which is a serious security threat to India. Russia is exporting weapons to Pakistan, too. For example, the engine of the China-Pakistan joint development fighter jet JF-17 is a Russian product. Russia also sold Mi-35 attack helicopters to Pakistan.”
India and Pakistan have fought four wars in the past seven decades. India and China had a major conflict in 1962 and have had multiple border skirmishes, including the bloody conflict of Galwan in 2020.
In the last decade, Pakistan tilted toward China. The latter, since 2015, has been building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that runs through disputed territory between India and Pakistan. Meanwhile, the tensions between the United States and China have increased in the Indo-Pacific.
“Because Pakistan is connected with Islamic radicals, the image of India for the U.S. is that of a victim of Islamic terrorism. In addition, if Pakistan wasn’t cooperating with China, Pakistan would be relatively good for the U.S., too,” said Nagao.
Ramesh opines that China-Pakistan relations have little to do with India’s close ties with the United States.
“India’s relationship with the U.S. is built on the foundation/pillars of tech trade, diaspora, and defense. The China or the China-Pakistan axis question is only one part of the larger relationship,” said Ramesh.
China and Pakistan signed a $4.8 billion deal on June 20 to build a 1,200-megawatt nuclear power plant in Pakistan. While it coincided with Modi’s U.S. trip, Iyer-Mitra said it’s not surprising that Beijing would make such a move.
“China has run out of tactical levers on India,” he said.
Nagao said that in this changing context of geopolitics, reliance on Russia isn’t in India’s best interest, and the Indian government has started diversifying its weapons source. India has recently imported more weapons from the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Israel than Russia.
Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, New Delhi began to rely less on Moscow, according to Nagao, because Russia needs weapons and can’t meet all of India’s weapons demands.
“Shortage of weapons [requires] Russia to import weapon parts from China and ammunition from Iran and North Korea. And sanctions against Russia limit Russia from getting parts (especially semiconductors) to make weapons. Russia cannot export weapons, repair parts, and ammunition to India despite nearly half of the weapons India possesses are still of Russian origin,” said Nagao.
This situation has pushed India toward the indigenous production of weapons as well. However, in today’s complex and interdependent supply chains, India needs trustworthy partners like the United States.
“India wants to increase domestic-made weapons such as Tejas fighter jets, Arjun tanks, etc. However, it is impossible to make all parts of these domestic-made weapons themselves. For example, the engine of Tejas fighter jets is American-made. India needs the capability to make weapons themselves,” said Nagao.
In this emerging situation, the India-U.S. cooperation will mutually benefit both countries, he said. In the past, the United States was reluctant to share its sensitive defense technology with India.
“However, this time, the U.S. accepted India’s request to share the technology. So India and the U.S. can make the engine jointly,” said Nagao, adding that Washington agreed to work with New Delhi because if India uses American weapons instead of Russian weapons, it benefits the United States.
Exceptions for India
India’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system was in the news last year. While the missile system purchase ensured that sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) were in place against Turkey, a NATO ally, India was exempted. Experts told The Epoch Times that the sanctions waiver proves that the United States understands India’s values and concerns and there’s trust in the partnership.“[During] The first two years of the Biden administration, the White House took multiple steps pushing India away from us, including bizarrely threatening to sanction India. I introduced legislation in the Senate to block the Biden administration from sanctioning India,” said Cruz.
“I’m very glad that the speaker invited Prime Minister Modi to be here, and I think his being with President Biben was important for continuing to advance our friendship.”
Ramesh said that India’s goal to produce its own weapons is not easy and the United States understands that.
“So it [U.S.] is giving it [India] time to diversify, and India has diversified over the last decade,” said Ramesh.
“Moreover, CAATSA waivers are a recognition of India’s responsible actions on the world stage and its history of upholding the rules-based international order. It has not violated international laws or seas such as China in the South China Sea, nor has it encroached on foreign territory.”
Nagao said that the situation has changed due to the Ukraine conflict, and Indians will stop buying the S-400 missile system because the Russians need it for themselves.
“Only three battalions will come to India despite five battalions being agreed between India and Russia,” said Nagao.
